Distinguish live ARR, contracted demand and professional service run rates

Reviewed-on: #42

apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts

@@ -182,10 +182,10 @@ async function main() {
   assert.equal(researchResponse.status, 200, "authenticated research API");
   assert.ok(researchResponse.headers.get("cache-control")?.includes("no-store"));
   const research = await researchResponse.json();
-  assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1207);
+  assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1232);
   assert.equal(research.categories.length, 11);
-  assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 4704);
-  assert.equal(research.observations.length, 453);
+  assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 4797);
+  assert.equal(research.observations.length, 475);
   assert.equal((await request("/api/research/ai-companies", { method: "POST", headers })).status, 405);
   const researchPage = await request("/docs/other-research/ai-company-research/overview", { headers });
   assert.equal(researchPage.status, 200);

apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts

@@ -123,11 +123,11 @@ test("research revisions share the authentication database and preserve replay l
     for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) consumeCode(config, "invalid");
     assert.equal(consumeCode(config, "invalid"), "limited");
     const initial = readResearchSnapshot();
-    assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1207);
-    assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 4704);
-    assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 453);
+    assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1232);
+    assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 4797);
+    assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 475);
     const businessReviews = initial.reviews.filter((review) => review.type === businessModelReviewType);
-    assert.equal(businessReviews.length, 4);
+    assert.equal(businessReviews.length, 6);
     assert.deepEqual(businessReviews, seed.reviews.filter((review) => review.type === businessModelReviewType)
       .sort((a, b) => a.id.localeCompare(b.id)),
       "business model assessments and company/evidence links persist in the shared database");
@@ -169,9 +169,9 @@ test("research validation rejects broken evidence and unsafe source links", () =
 
 test("reviews link explicit companies without turning global or excluded cases into companies", () => {
   const snapshot = structuredClone(seed) as ResearchSnapshot;
-  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "companies").length, 221);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "companies").length, 234);
   assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "dataset").length, 145);
-  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "excluded-candidate").length, 48);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "excluded-candidate").length, 53);
   const review = snapshot.reviews.find((r) => r.id === "R4")!;
   assert.deepEqual(reviewCompanyIds(snapshot, review), ["AI007", "AI013", "AI021", "AI034"]);
   assert.deepEqual(reviewCompanyIds(snapshot, snapshot.reviews.find((r) => r.id === "CN-R-PSI")!), []);
@@ -190,11 +190,11 @@ test("reviews link explicit companies without turning global or excluded cases i
 test("disclosure counts exclude client income, biographies, targets and duplicate milestones", () => {
   const snapshot = seed as ResearchSnapshot;
   const summary = categorySummary(snapshot);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1207);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 58);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1232);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 62);
   assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.estimate, 0), 2);
   assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.platform, 0), 19);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.unknown, 0), 1128);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.unknown, 0), 1149);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.name === "Rork")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.name === "Result")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
   assert.ok(snapshot.observations.filter((o) => o.selection === "signal").every((o) => o.scope === "公司整体"));
@@ -229,8 +229,8 @@ test("service run rates, legacy freight revenue and paid adoption do not become
 
 test("technical reviews keep accessible materials separate from tested capabilities", () => {
   const snapshot = structuredClone(seed) as ResearchSnapshot;
-  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview).length, 192);
-  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview?.level === "public-artifact").length, 26);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview).length, 217);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview?.level === "public-artifact").length, 28);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview?.level === "independent-test").length, 1);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "AI051")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
   assert.match(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "AI051")!.technicalReview!.testScope!, /Sep 2026/);
@@ -502,6 +502,71 @@ test("the public SR007 roster preserves unique entries and Alven's older operato
   assert.ok(alven.evidenceIds?.includes("SR007R-ALVEN-REG"));
   assert.ok(!snapshot.observations.some((item) => item.evidence.startsWith("SR007R-")),
     "roster claims, deployment plans and per-unit prices are not new financial observations");
+  const coherence = batch.records.find((row) => row.name === "Coherence Health")!;
+  assert.equal(coherence.status, "pending-ai", "a new coaching business still needs current AI delivery evidence");
+  assert.equal(coherence.companyId, undefined);
+  const followup = snapshot.observations.filter((item) => item.id.startsWith("SR007F2-"));
+  assert.equal(followup.length, 4);
+  assert.ok(followup.every((item) => ["excluded", "adoption"].includes(item.selection) && !item.metric && !item.observedAt));
+  assert.ok(!arrDisclosures(snapshot).some(({ observation }) => observation.id.startsWith("SR007F2-")),
+    "contracted ARR and pipeline are not live ARR disclosures");
+  const thirdFollowup = snapshot.observations.filter((item) => item.id.startsWith("SR007F3-"));
+  assert.equal(thirdFollowup.length, 6);
+  assert.equal(thirdFollowup.filter((item) => item.selection === "excluded").length, 3);
+  assert.equal(thirdFollowup.filter((item) => item.selection === "adoption").length, 3);
+  assert.ok(thirdFollowup.every((item) => !item.metric && !item.observedAt));
+  assert.ok(!arrDisclosures(snapshot).some(({ observation }) => observation.id.startsWith("SR007F3-")),
+    "projected ARR, connected customer assets and prospective contracts are not realized ARR");
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((item) => item.id === "AI121")!.cat, "C02",
+    "training data and environments are infrastructure rather than demonstrated foundation models");
+  const embrasure = snapshot.companies.find((item) => item.id === "AI122")!;
+  assert.equal(embrasure.technicalReview!.level, "public-artifact");
+  assert.ok(embrasure.technicalReview!.evidenceIds.includes("SR007F3-EMBRASURE-FLOW"),
+    "the public connector supports artifact availability, not independently reproduced warehouse performance");
+  for (const name of ["KIRA", "Leonidas", "Mecone", "PhotonSpear"]) {
+    const candidate = batch.records.find((row) => row.name === name)!;
+    assert.equal(candidate.status, "pending-ai",
+      "serving AI customers or using software controls is not evidence of an AI business");
+    assert.equal(candidate.companyId, undefined);
+  }
+  const maestroClaims = arrDisclosures(snapshot).filter(({ company }) => company.id === "AI130");
+  assert.equal(maestroClaims.length, 2, "keep the two original ARR milestones in the evidence ledger");
+  assert.ok(maestroClaims.every(({ observation }) => observation.selection === "historical" &&
+    arrFieldGaps(observation, snapshot.asOf).includes("date") &&
+    arrFieldGaps(observation, snapshot.asOf).includes("currency")));
+  const cumulative = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === "SR007F4-O-MAESTRO-CUMULATIVE")!;
+  assert.equal(cumulative.selection, "historical");
+  assert.equal(cumulative.metric, undefined, "nine-month cumulative revenue cannot become ARR");
+  const contracted = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === "SR007F4-O-HOID-CONTRACT")!;
+  assert.equal(contracted.selection, "excluded");
+  assert.equal(contracted.metric, undefined, "contracted run rate is not realized ARR");
+  const openwhispr = snapshot.companies.find((item) => item.id === "AI135")!;
+  assert.equal(openwhispr.technicalReview!.level, "public-artifact");
+  assert.ok(openwhispr.technicalReview!.evidenceIds.includes("SR007F5-OPENWHISPR-REPO"));
+  const voiceArr = arrDisclosures(snapshot).find(({ company }) => company.id === openwhispr.id)!.observation;
+  assert.equal(voiceArr.value, 120000);
+  assert.equal(voiceArr.bound, "≥");
+  assert.ok(arrFieldGaps(voiceArr, snapshot.asOf).includes("date"));
+  assert.ok(arrFieldGaps(voiceArr, snapshot.asOf).includes("currency"),
+    "current plan prices cannot supply the currency of an undated investor ARR claim");
+  const voiceUsers = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === "SR007F5-O-OPENWHISPR-DAU")!;
+  assert.equal(voiceUsers.selection, "adoption", "daily active users are not paying subscribers");
+  assert.equal(voiceUsers.metric, undefined);
+  const salesLive = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === "SR007F6-O-OTHELLO-LIVE")!;
+  assert.equal(salesLive.metric, "arr");
+  assert.equal(salesLive.value, 600000, "live ARR must not include contracted ARR or pipeline");
+  for (const suffix of ["CONTRACT", "PIPELINE"]) {
+    const prospective = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === `SR007F6-O-OTHELLO-${suffix}`)!;
+    assert.equal(prospective.selection, "excluded");
+    assert.equal(prospective.metric, undefined);
+  }
+  const professionalService = snapshot.observations.find((item) => item.id === "SR007F6-O-PARCA-RUNRATE")!;
+  assert.equal(professionalService.metric, "annualized-revenue");
+  assert.equal(professionalService.selection, "historical");
+  assert.ok(!arrDisclosures(snapshot).some(({ observation }) => observation.id === professionalService.id),
+    "annualized professional-service revenue is not recurring subscription ARR");
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((item) => item.id === "AI137")!.technicalReview!.level, "description",
+    "a preliminary external ranking with unresolved methodology is not complete independent verification");
 });
 
 test("annual launch archives exclude older companies only with evidence and reuse existing records", () => {
@@ -531,7 +596,7 @@ test("unreconciled directory financials remain source reviews instead of income
   assert.ok(review.evidenceIds.includes("PH-TANA-DR"));
   assert.equal(reviewCompanyIds(snapshot, review).length, 0);
   assert.ok(!snapshot.observations.some((o) => o.evidence === "PH-TANA-DR"));
-  assert.equal(snapshot.candidateBatches!.flatMap((b) => b.records).filter((r) => r.status === "pending-year").length, 183);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.candidateBatches!.flatMap((b) => b.records).filter((r) => r.status === "pending-year").length, 153);
 });
 
 test("product pivots and founder histories do not become new company years or current revenue", () => {

content/research/ai-companies.sources.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "version": "2026-11-01-sr007-followup-1",
+  "version": "2026-11-01-sr007-followup-6",
   "scopeConfirmedAt": "2026-10-30",
   "acceptance": "以确认的公开来源清单为边界，逐条核对并标明缺项。",
   "provenance": "S01—S12恢复自已提交用户的《AI公司研究_来源与分类模板》来源清单；S13—S16单列后续已使用的补充证据渠道，不将使用次数当作全量覆盖。",
@@ -3040,8 +3040,8 @@
         "speedrun.a16z.com"
       ],
       "initialAccess": "见具体证据访问记录",
-      "boundary": "原有投资方公司定向个案和2025/2026补查保留。2026-11-01普通公开HTML内嵌载荷明确默认SR007的79条，逐一登记25关联（17复用、8本系列新增）/53主体年份待核/1AI主营待核；75普通UUID链接与79载荷分列。此前文本仅外壳不等无名单，本次不执行站点脚本或读取私有接口。SR005/SR006公开参数仍返回默认SR007，其他批次/两年目录未穷尽。投资方和公司宣传收入非独立验证，Bounty部署/承诺及Alven当前部署金额不作已实现ARR。 后续六项补读五家关联（Baro/Blueprint/Cartsy/ChatOverflow/ChronoSpace），Bric2026但隐身转AI待核；客户业绩、旧事业、签约和演示均不新增收入。",
-      "nextCheck": "先补SR007剩余53条独立档案及Bric的AI主营、官网及成立/主体与AI主营；同时建立其他批次的公开边界，不能按请求参数认读取成功。Alven的ROOMSS2024/品牌2025与海外主体沿革、各公司币种/日历财务日/实际合同和人工、设备、模型成本待核；原Nexor/Hotbox/OneGC/Omi/DRS/Cedar/Loops缺项继续保留。 Baro合同费率/人工与效果分成、Cartsy商家净费、Blueprint实际产品与登记、ChatOverflow代码/公测交付及ChronoSpace签约履约/模型数据许可继续缺。",
+      "boundary": "原有定向个案保留。2026-11-01匿名普通HTML默认SR007名单79条，75个普通UUID链接；逐一登记50关联（17复用、33本系列新增）、23成立/主体待核、6AI主营待核。本系列补读40个独立档案及可读官网/条款，剩余目录位置未当独立档案已读。未执行站点脚本或读取私有接口；SR005/SR006参数仍返回SR007，不认其他批次或两年全量覆盖。Bric/Coherence/KIRA/Leonidas/Mecone/PhotonSpear当前AI主营未明，Alven有2024主体与2025品牌冲突。签约/管线/预计ARR、客户资产、旧事业、候补与演示不当实收；Maestro九个月累计收入与Afore的两个ARR里程碑分列，后者缺币种/日历日及净经常性定义。软件、人工/专家、云资源、评测、硬件/旅行交易及保险安排按当前交付分开，技术制品与独立验证分开；具体限制链接公司、证据和核查记录。 OpenWhispr新增有缺项ARR标签与日活采用，本地/BYOK/自营云分开，旧Hedra/StockX/金融产品业绩及客户运费不迁新公司。 Othello live/cARR/管线、Parca服务年化、Phyvant客户财务及Orbits当前免费与旧雇主业绩分别保留；Oruk外部英语初步榜单不能外推整体效果。",
+      "nextCheck": "先补SR007剩余23条独立档案及Bric/Coherence/KIRA/Leonidas/Mecone/PhotonSpear的AI主营，另核Alven主体/品牌沿革。继续建立其他批次公开边界，不能按请求参数认读取成功。已关联公司仍须补独立登记、币种/财务日、签约履约/实付、经常性净费及取消退款；实施/人工、数据许可、评测、云/模型资源、设备、保险佣金/保费与旅行采购及会员费需拆。Hoid性能/合同、Kairo工程师服务、Keythorn牌照/风险角色、Maestro2025推荐语/主体起点及两种收入口径为当前重点；其他个案缺项见关联核查，不因本次可读认已验证。 Mirai业务订单与模型依赖、Motherboard现场人力/装机、Munari评分/专家成本、Nimble客户审批/付费、OpenWhispr免费与云净费/隐私配置和独立主体继续核。 Oruk精确模型/方法与语音用量成本，Othello主体/品牌起点及live合同净额，Parca专业审核净费/资质，Orbits免费承诺/未来定价及Phyvant实施/异常人工与合同继续缺。",
       "limitation": "来源可读不等于声明已独立验证。",
       "rosterAudit": {
         "url": "https://speedrun.a16z.com/companies",
@@ -3078,11 +3078,13 @@
       "role": "supplement",
       "status": "targeted",
       "hosts": [
-        "getlatka.com"
+        "getlatka.com",
+        "intros.afore.vc",
+        "benchmarks.speko.ai"
       ],
       "initialAccess": "见具体证据访问记录",
-      "boundary": "未归入上述来源的公开材料按原始证据链接逐条保留；不视为新增已批准的完整候选池。 本轮读取GetLatka单页历史年收入估算，方法底表未取得，不视为新增完整候选池。 另定向读GuideAI估算页，明确EST且团队身份与当前原始线索未对齐，本批不采财务观测；非全库。",
-      "nextCheck": "逐项核来源归属、可靠性及可读正文，不能将搜索摘要当全文。",
+      "boundary": "未归入上述来源的公开材料按原始证据链接逐条保留；不视为新增已批准的完整候选池。 本轮读取GetLatka单页历史年收入估算，方法底表未取得，不视为新增完整候选池。 另定向读GuideAI估算页，明确EST且团队身份与当前原始线索未对齐，本批不采财务观测；非全库。 定向读取Afore公开Maestro公司页（同名创始人及官网反链），记录ARR原始标签但无日历截至日/币种或净费定义；未将其Showcase全名单视为已批准候选池。 定向读取Speko英语情绪初步榜单，仅核Oruk公开结果，方法/独立性/版本待核，非扩展整个候选池。",
+      "nextCheck": "逐项核来源归属、可靠性及可读正文，不能将搜索摘要当全文。 Maestro投资方ARR与累计收入、净会员费/旅行总额及顾问成本需对齐；不请求介绍。",
       "limitation": "来源可读不等于声明已独立验证。"
     }
   ]

content/research/ai-income-analysis.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "sourceVersion": "2026-11-01-sr007-followup-1",
+  "sourceVersion": "2026-11-01-sr007-followup-6",
   "asOf": "2026-11-01",
   "metric": "platform-mrr-usd",
   "sampleUnit": "product-or-business",