Review fifth uncertain AI cohort and distinguish ARR from service and contract claims

apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts

@@ -182,10 +182,10 @@ async function main() {
   assert.equal(researchResponse.status, 200, "authenticated research API");
   assert.ok(researchResponse.headers.get("cache-control")?.includes("no-store"));
   const research = await researchResponse.json();
-  assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1102);
+  assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1115);
   assert.equal(research.categories.length, 11);
-  assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 2973);
-  assert.equal(research.observations.length, 395);
+  assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 3047);
+  assert.equal(research.observations.length, 413);
   assert.equal((await request("/api/research/ai-companies", { method: "POST", headers })).status, 405);
   const researchPage = await request("/docs/other-research/ai-company-research/overview", { headers });
   assert.equal(researchPage.status, 200);

apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts

@@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ test("research revisions share the authentication database and preserve replay l
     for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) consumeCode(config, "invalid");
     assert.equal(consumeCode(config, "invalid"), "limited");
     const initial = readResearchSnapshot();
-    assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1102);
-    assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 2973);
-    assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 395);
+    assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1115);
+    assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 3047);
+    assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 413);
     assert.deepEqual(initial.candidateBatches, seed.candidateBatches, "candidate gaps persist in the same database metadata");
     assert.deepEqual(initial.directoryRechecks, seed.directoryRechecks, "follow-up classifications persist without rewriting the discovery audit");
     assert.deepEqual(readResearchSnapshot(), initial, "reopening does not duplicate records");
@@ -64,8 +64,8 @@ test("research validation rejects broken evidence and unsafe source links", () =
 
 test("reviews link explicit companies without turning global or excluded cases into companies", () => {
   const snapshot = structuredClone(seed) as ResearchSnapshot;
-  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "companies").length, 182);
-  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "dataset").length, 16);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "companies").length, 186);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "dataset").length, 17);
   assert.equal(snapshot.reviews.filter((r) => r.scope === "excluded-candidate").length, 44);
   const review = snapshot.reviews.find((r) => r.id === "R4")!;
   assert.deepEqual(reviewCompanyIds(snapshot, review), ["AI007", "AI013", "AI021", "AI034"]);
@@ -85,11 +85,11 @@ test("reviews link explicit companies without turning global or excluded cases i
 test("disclosure counts exclude client income, biographies, targets and duplicate milestones", () => {
   const snapshot = seed as ResearchSnapshot;
   const summary = categorySummary(snapshot);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1102);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 53);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1115);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 56);
   assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.estimate, 0), 2);
   assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.platform, 0), 19);
-  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.unknown, 0), 1028);
+  assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.unknown, 0), 1038);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.name === "Rork")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.name === "Result")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
   assert.ok(snapshot.observations.filter((o) => o.selection === "signal").every((o) => o.scope === "公司整体"));
@@ -124,7 +124,7 @@ test("service run rates, legacy freight revenue and paid adoption do not become
 
 test("technical reviews keep accessible materials separate from tested capabilities", () => {
   const snapshot = structuredClone(seed) as ResearchSnapshot;
-  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview).length, 98);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview).length, 104);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview?.level === "public-artifact").length, 21);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.filter((c) => c.technicalReview?.level === "independent-test").length, 1);
   assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "AI051")?.revenueStatus, "unknown");
@@ -578,6 +578,42 @@ test("the fourth uncertain cohort distinguishes product pivots, managed labor an
   assert.ok(!platformIncomeSample(snapshot, { windowDays: null }).points.some((p) => p.observation.id.startsWith("UNCLEAR4-")));
 });
 
+test("the fifth uncertain cohort separates dated ARR, service run rates, bookings and previous ventures", () => {
+  const snapshot = seed as ResearchSnapshot;
+  const batch = snapshot.candidateBatches!.find((b) => b.id === "YC-AI-UNCLEAR-5")!;
+  const original = coverageAudit.records.filter((r) => r.status === "ai-unclear").slice(96, 120);
+  assert.equal(batch.complete, false);
+  assert.deepEqual(batch.records.map((r) => r.url), original.map((r) => r.source));
+  assert.equal(batch.records.filter((r) => r.status === "linked").length, 15);
+  assert.equal(batch.records.filter((r) => r.status === "pending-ai").length, 9);
+  assert.equal(batch.records.find((r) => r.name === "primitive")!.companyId, "AI002");
+  assert.equal(batch.records.find((r) => r.name === "Result")!.companyId, "AI001");
+  const result = snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "AI001")!;
+  assert.equal(result.cat, "C09");
+  assert.equal(result.revenueStatus, "unknown");
+  assert.match(result.notes, /280万美元ARR属于用户/);
+  assert.ok(result.evidenceIds.includes("UNCLEAR5-31438-TERMS"));
+  const andco = snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "YC31411")!;
+  assert.equal(andco.year, 2026, "a founder's previous venture must not replace the new company's stated year");
+  assert.match(andco.notes, /Layup/);
+  assert.equal(snapshot.evidence.find((e) => e.id === "UNCLEAR5-31411-LAUNCH6")!.companyId, null);
+  const figures = snapshot.observations.filter((o) => o.id.startsWith("UNCLEAR5-"));
+  assert.equal(figures.length, 18);
+  const dated = figures.find((o) => o.id.endsWith("TRELLIS-ARR-AUG"))!;
+  assert.equal(dated.metric, "arr");
+  assert.equal(dated.observedAt, "2026-08-24");
+  assert.equal(dated.bound, "≥");
+  assert.equal(figures.find((o) => o.id.endsWith("INSTA-RUNRATE"))!.metric, "annualized-revenue");
+  assert.equal(figures.find((o) => o.id.endsWith("INSTA-LAUNCH-ARR"))!.metric, "arr");
+  for (const suffix of ["PARROT-CONTRACT", "KINRO-OLD-CONTRACT", "BENTO-OLD-EMPLOYER", "TRELLIS-OLD-MGMT"]) {
+    assert.equal(figures.find((o) => o.id.endsWith(suffix))!.selection, "excluded");
+  }
+  assert.equal(snapshot.companies.find((c) => c.id === "YC31423")!.technicalReview!.level, "description",
+    "an internal benchmark subset is not an independent leaderboard result");
+  assert.ok(figures.every((o) => o.comparisonGroup === null));
+  assert.ok(!platformIncomeSample(snapshot, { windowDays: null }).points.some((p) => p.observation.id.startsWith("UNCLEAR5-")));
+});
+
 test("Chinese discovery entries preserve unread articles and use separate primary evidence", () => {
   const snapshot = structuredClone(seed) as ResearchSnapshot;
   const batch = snapshot.candidateBatches!.find((b) => b.id === "JQ-2026-targeted-1")!;

content/research/ai-companies.sources.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "version": "2026-10-31-ai-unclear-4",
+  "version": "2026-10-31-ai-unclear-5",
   "scopeConfirmedAt": "2026-10-30",
   "acceptance": "以确认的公开来源清单为边界，逐条核对并标明缺项。",
   "provenance": "S01—S12恢复自已提交用户的《AI公司研究_来源与分类模板》来源清单；S13—S16单列后续已使用的补充证据渠道，不将使用次数当作全量覆盖。",
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@
       "initialAccess": "官网目录可访问",
       "boundary": "已读取八个2025—2026批次镜像候选池1428条，再核YC官方页面；不声称覆盖全部YC历年或未公开公司。",
       "limitation": "批次不等于成立年；不代表全部公司",
-      "nextCheck": "已统一企业141、行业252、模型标签26、开发标签51、其余标签34项，共504项新增主营复核。当前928条原YC新增记录保留发现来源，其中基础项871条均已做主营人工复核（871条），57条深化个案。C05规则89保留27/移62，C05标签52保留10/移42；C07规则184保留135/移49，C07标签68保留39/移29；模型标签26保留17/移9，开发标签51保留16/移35，其余标签34保留16/移18。主营复核仍含C00/短简介/混合交付缺项，不等完整产品/技术/财务审计。Tasklet及Native新产品与旧业务链保留，发现审计不改；Freya、Epicenter、Stellon许可及公开材料/厂商基准范围分开。客户收入、估价、资产、节省、管线/意向、预订需求、旧公司收入与示例排除自身ARR；Locke服务run-rate不等ARR，Mixy历史MRR/捐赠、Isengard无期间收入分开。各批证据、观测、核查与主体/收费/人工成本缺项均保留；全部确认来源清单的候选范围、AI不明/成立冲突及公司财务技术缺项继续核，不能声称全来源研究完成。 原AI不明192项已补核四批96项：51新增、4复用、41保留AI主营待核；另此前OpenSEO1项，合计97项已有后续记录，其余95项继续补核。原发现审计及928条初始新增不回写。Fern历史会议/当前机器人RL、MochaCare软件/人工管理、Agent支付/客户资金、Laurence广告费、Ekpa连接资产及Regbase资助线索分开；无新增可比MRR/ARR。Klaus停服、Asimov清洁服务及其他旧收入/技术边界保留。"
+      "nextCheck": "已统一企业141、行业252、模型标签26、开发标签51、其余标签34项，共504项新增主营复核。当前928条原YC新增记录保留发现来源，其中基础项871条均已做主营人工复核（871条），57条深化个案。C05规则89保留27/移62，C05标签52保留10/移42；C07规则184保留135/移49，C07标签68保留39/移29；模型标签26保留17/移9，开发标签51保留16/移35，其余标签34保留16/移18。主营复核仍含C00/短简介/混合交付缺项，不等完整产品/技术/财务审计。Tasklet及Native新产品与旧业务链保留，发现审计不改；Freya、Epicenter、Stellon许可及公开材料/厂商基准范围分开。客户收入、估价、资产、节省、管线/意向、预订需求、旧公司收入与示例排除自身ARR；Locke服务run-rate不等ARR，Mixy历史MRR/捐赠、Isengard无期间收入分开。各批证据、观测、核查与主体/收费/人工成本缺项均保留；全部确认来源清单的候选范围、AI不明/成立冲突及公司财务技术缺项继续核，不能声称全来源研究完成。 原AI不明192项已补核五批120项：64新增、6复用、50保留AI主营待核；另此前OpenSEO1项，合计121项已有后续记录，其余71项继续补核。原发现审计/928初始新增不回写。新增Trellis两时点ARR、InstaAgent旧ARR/当前服务run rate和Kinro转型前年收入，均未进同口径MRR；Andco旧Layup发布归创始人此前事业，Result按当前官网/同创始人条款暂归个人应用，AI业务/法律主体和内部基准限制保留。"
     },
     {
       "id": "S02",

content/research/ai-income-analysis.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "sourceVersion": "2026-10-31-ai-unclear-4",
+  "sourceVersion": "2026-10-31-ai-unclear-5",
   "asOf": "2026-10-31",
   "metric": "platform-mrr-usd",
   "sampleUnit": "product-or-business",