k
4c3c8c6f87
Backend KOL_FEEDS trimmed from 29 to 25 (dead feeds removed).
Sync all hardcoded count mentions:
- layout.tsx JSON-LD, page.tsx (metric + comparison + copy)
- kol/page.tsx, KolPageClient.tsx ("and 26 more" → "and 22 more")
- glossary/page.tsx, opengraph-image.tsx
- public/llms.txt, llms-full.txt
- drop removed KOLs (Dragonfly Capital, Nic Carter) from named lists
Bundles other in-flight frontend work already in the working tree.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
112 lines
6.2 KiB
Plaintext
112 lines
6.2 KiB
Plaintext
# Trump Alpha — Full Reference (by Endorphin)
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> Expanded companion to /llms.txt. This single document inlines the full
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> methodology, the glossary, and the documented case studies with their
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> evidence sources, so an AI assistant can answer detailed questions in one
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> fetch. For the concise index see https://trumpsignal.com/llms.txt
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>
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> Trump Alpha is a crypto research project by Endorphin, a research desk. It
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> tracks four uncorrelated signals that move markets before consensus catches
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> up. Every signal is public and timestamped. Free to read; an optional
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> non-custodial Hyperliquid auto-trader is available for the Trump signal only.
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## Who runs this
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Endorphin is the research desk behind Trump Alpha. Positioning is deliberately
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research-first: the site documents live production logic, publishes its
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track record openly, and timestamps every call. It is not a paid signal group,
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a course, or a "guru" account.
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## The four signal engines (full logic)
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### 1. Trump Truth Social Signal (real-time event)
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Watches Donald Trump's Truth Social feed in real time. Within ~15 seconds of a
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new post, an NLP model classifies it as LONG (bullish crypto), SHORT (bearish),
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or NOISE (off-topic), with a 0–100 confidence score. Post-to-classification
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runs in under 3 seconds. Posts that name specific assets and tie them to policy
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score highest. Only posts ≥ 88 confidence can trigger the optional auto-trader.
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Failure mode: vague political posts with no asset/policy content score low by
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design; sarcasm and quote-reposts are the hardest cases.
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### 2. Macro Vibes (crypto macro regime)
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Eight free public macro indicators in one view: AHR999, Fear & Greed Index, BTC
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dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, total stablecoin supply, US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net
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flow, BTC perpetual open interest, and the Altcoin Season Index. Plus two trade
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triggers:
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- BTC Macro Bottom (long-only): fires when ≥ 2 of 3 agree — AHR999 < 0.45,
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price ≤ 200-week MA × 1.05, Pi Cycle Bottom. Fires 2–4× per multi-year cycle.
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- BTC Funding Reversal: fires when 30-day cumulative perp funding crosses ±3%
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AND recent cycles start cooling (mean-reversion against crowded positioning).
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Manage-only: alerts surface; the user opens on Hyperliquid and the bot then
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manages the exit (5-rung stop ladder, de-risk, pyramid, peak-trail). No auto-open.
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### 3. KOL talks-vs-trades divergence (highest conviction)
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25 crypto KOL feeds ingested daily via RSS. An NLP step extracts ticker(s),
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directional stance, and conviction. A separate on-chain step diffs each KOL's
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Ethereum wallet. A DIVERGENCE fires when public stance and wallet action
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disagree within a ±7-day window (e.g. publicly bullish ETH while selling ETH).
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On-chain action is treated as ground truth. This is the platform's
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highest-conviction category. Alert-only — never auto-trades.
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### 4. BTC Funding Rate Reversal
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Lives inside Macro Vibes. Monitors BTC perpetual funding at Binance. Extreme
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30-day cumulative funding (> ±3%) historically precedes mean reversion; the
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scanner bets against the crowded side once rates start cooling. Alert-only.
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### Optional: Hyperliquid auto-trader (Trump signal only)
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Non-custodial execution layer using a trade-only Hyperliquid API key (cannot
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withdraw funds). User controls leverage (default 3×), position size, TP/SL,
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daily budget cap, active-hours window, and minimum confidence. System 1 (Trump
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scalp) is the only engine that auto-opens; everything else is alert/manage-only.
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## Glossary (key terms)
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- AHR999: composite BTC valuation indicator (price, geometric-mean price, and an
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exponential growth fit). < 0.45 = deep-value accumulation zone; > 1.2 =
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expensive relative to the growth trajectory.
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- Pi Cycle Bottom: 150-day EMA ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745. Historically pinpointed
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BTC cycle bottoms within ~2 weeks in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
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- 200-week moving average: long-cycle BTC support; price below or near it has
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marked historical accumulation regimes.
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- Talks-vs-trades divergence: a KOL's public stance and on-chain wallet behaviour
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point in opposite directions on the same asset within ±7 days.
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- Funding reversal: mean-reversion signal when 30-day cumulative BTC perp funding
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crosses ±3% and the crowded side starts cooling.
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## Documented case studies (with evidence sources)
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These are evidence, not return promises. Each answers: what happened, how the
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market reacted, and why it supports a specific engine.
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- Strategic Crypto Reserve announcement (Mar 2, 2025, Trump Truth Social):
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Trump confirmed a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP,
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ADA. BTC +8.2%, ETH +10%+ within 24h. Supports a high-conviction LONG when a
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post names specific assets tied to policy.
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Source: cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html
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- $6.8M pre-positioning profit around the reserve post (Mar 2025, on-chain):
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An anonymous address built a large leveraged BTC/ETH position around the
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announcement and reportedly closed it same-day for ~$6.8M. Shows speed is edge
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in event-driven trading.
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- Tariff escalation post (Apr 2025, Trump Truth Social): a tariff-escalation
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post produced a risk-off move, BTC -4.1% in ~4h. Supports the need for a real
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SHORT branch — not every Trump post is bullish.
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Source: coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-president-trump-made-a-statement-that-moved-bitcoin-and-why-it-might-happen-again-this-week
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- ETH talks-vs-trades divergence (illustrative composite): a tracked KOL
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published a bullish ETH thesis then reduced ~$180k ETH within five days —
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classic divergence between narrative and positioning.
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- FTX washout zone (Nov 2022, BTC macro bottom reference): BTC reached ~$15.5k
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and recovered toward ~$69k within ~18 months (+345%). The regime the BTC
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macro-bottom engine is built to identify via AHR999 + 200-week MA + Pi Cycle.
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## URLs
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- Home: https://trumpsignal.com
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- Trump signals: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trump
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- Macro Vibes: https://trumpsignal.com/en/macro
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- KOL talks-vs-trades: https://trumpsignal.com/en/kol
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- Trade history: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trades
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- Analytics / track record: https://trumpsignal.com/en/analytics
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- Methodology: https://trumpsignal.com/en/methodology
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- Glossary: https://trumpsignal.com/en/glossary
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- Case studies: https://trumpsignal.com/en/case-studies
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