k
4c3c8c6f87
Backend KOL_FEEDS trimmed from 29 to 25 (dead feeds removed).
Sync all hardcoded count mentions:
- layout.tsx JSON-LD, page.tsx (metric + comparison + copy)
- kol/page.tsx, KolPageClient.tsx ("and 26 more" → "and 22 more")
- glossary/page.tsx, opengraph-image.tsx
- public/llms.txt, llms-full.txt
- drop removed KOLs (Dragonfly Capital, Nic Carter) from named lists
Bundles other in-flight frontend work already in the working tree.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
442 lines
19 KiB
TypeScript
442 lines
19 KiB
TypeScript
import type { Metadata } from 'next'
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import Link from 'next/link'
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import Breadcrumbs from '@/components/seo/Breadcrumbs'
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const siteUrl = process.env.NEXT_PUBLIC_SITE_URL || 'https://trumpsignal.com'
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interface CaseStudy {
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id: string
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date: string
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source: string
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title: string
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summary: string
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signal: 'LONG' | 'SHORT' | 'DIVERGENCE'
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asset: string
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priceImpact: string
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impactWindow: string
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detail: string
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evidence: string
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externalUrl?: string
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}
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type CaseStudiesCopy = {
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title: string
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description: string
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keywords: string[]
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ogTitle: string
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ogDescription: string
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heroTitle: string
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heroSubtitle: string
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intro: string
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statAsset: string
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statImpact: string
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statWindow: string
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evidenceLabel: string
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footer: string
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footerMethodology: string
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footerGlossary: string
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cases: CaseStudy[]
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}
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function getCopy(locale: string): CaseStudiesCopy {
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const isZh = false // i18n shelved — Chinese branches kept as dead code for future revival; see messages/zh.json
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if (isZh) {
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return {
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title: '案例研究 - Trump Alpha',
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description:
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'整理 Trump Truth Social 帖子如何影响比特币与加密市场的公开案例，包括战略储备公告、链上大额抢跑交易、风险偏好切换以及 KOL 言行偏离样本。',
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keywords: [
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'Trump 加密市场影响',
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'Truth Social 比特币',
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'Trump 帖子行情',
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'加密市场案例研究',
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'KOL 言行偏离案例',
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'BTC 底部案例',
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],
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ogTitle: 'Case Studies | Trump Alpha',
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ogDescription:
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'记录过往真正推动市场的帖子、仓位和链上证据，解释这些信号为什么值得跟踪。',
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heroTitle: '案例研究',
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heroSubtitle: '把历史上真正推动市场的帖子、仓位和价格反应摊开来看',
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intro:
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'这不是收益展示页，而是证据页。每个案例都尽量回答三个问题：发生了什么、市场怎么动、为什么这件事支持某个信号引擎的存在。',
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statAsset: '资产',
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statImpact: '价格影响',
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statWindow: '观察窗口',
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evidenceLabel: '证据',
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footer: '这些案例用于说明信号背后的历史依据，不构成前瞻性收益承诺。',
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footerMethodology: '方法论',
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footerGlossary: '术语表',
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cases: [
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{
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id: 'strategic-reserve-2025',
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date: '2025 年 3 月 2 日',
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source: 'Trump Truth Social',
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title: '美国“战略加密储备”表态',
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summary: 'Trump 在 Truth Social 上确认美国战略加密储备将涵盖 BTC、ETH、SOL、XRP 和 ADA。',
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signal: 'LONG',
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asset: 'BTC / ETH',
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priceImpact: 'BTC +8.2%，ETH +10%+',
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impactWindow: '24 小时',
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detail:
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'这条帖子之所以重要，不只是因为点名了多个资产，而是因为它把“政府政策支持”从模糊口风变成了明确承诺。Trump Alpha 的语义引擎会把这种带有具体资产清单和国家层面措辞的内容识别为高置信度 LONG 事件。',
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evidence:
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'CNBC 和 Al Jazeera 均报道了该消息后的市场反应。链上和交易所数据也出现了明显的动量资金流入。',
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externalUrl:
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'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html',
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},
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{
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id: 'whale-6m-perp',
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date: '2025 年 3 月',
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source: '链上 / Truth Social',
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title: '战略储备帖子前后出现 680 万美元抢跑收益',
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summary:
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'一只匿名地址在战略储备帖子发布前后快速建立 50 倍 BTC/ETH 杠杆仓位，并在当天平仓，获利约 680 万美元。',
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signal: 'LONG',
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asset: 'BTC',
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priceImpact: '+680 万美元',
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impactWindow: '当日',
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detail:
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'这个案例说明了两件事：第一，Trump 帖子确实能形成足够大的短线价格冲击；第二，在这种事件中，反应速度本身就是边际优势。无论这笔交易是抢跑还是极快的自动化反应，它都证明了“帖子 -> 交易 -> 盈亏”链条是真实存在的。',
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evidence:
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'Raw Story / NewsBreak 对这笔交易做了记录，TIME 也提到相关监管层面的质疑与讨论。',
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externalUrl:
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'https://www.newsbreak.com/raw-story-2096750/4286876592634-that-s-the-maga-playbook-crypto-trade-made-moments-before-trump-post-raises-eyebrows',
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},
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{
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id: 'tariff-china-2025',
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date: '2025 年 4 月',
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source: 'Trump Truth Social',
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title: '关税升级帖子引发风险偏好下移',
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summary: 'Trump 发文谈及对中国加征大规模关税，这类表态通常被市场解读为短线 risk-off。',
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signal: 'SHORT',
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asset: 'BTC',
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priceImpact: 'BTC -4.1%',
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impactWindow: '4 小时',
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detail:
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'并不是每条 Trump 帖子都偏利多。带有贸易摩擦、关税升级、监管收紧或避险语义的内容，往往会压缩风险资产偏好。这个案例支持了信号系统中 SHORT 方向存在的必要性。',
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evidence:
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'CoinDesk 曾整理过多次 Trump 发言影响 BTC 的案例，这次关税语境下的风险偏好回落与其历史模式一致。',
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externalUrl:
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'https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-president-trump-made-a-statement-that-moved-bitcoin-and-why-it-might-happen-again-this-week',
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},
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{
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id: 'kol-divergence-example',
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date: '示意型复合案例',
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source: 'KOL 文章 + 链上地址',
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title: '公开看多 ETH，但钱包在减仓',
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summary:
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'某位被追踪的 KOL 发布看多 ETH 的长文，随后 5 天内其钱包减少约 18 万美元 ETH 仓位，构成典型言行偏离。',
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signal: 'DIVERGENCE',
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asset: 'ETH',
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priceImpact: 'N/A',
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impactWindow: '±7 天',
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detail:
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'这个案例不是在讲单条帖子多会拉盘，而是在讲“公开叙事”和“真实仓位”可能不是一回事。对于研究型用户，这类偏离通常比单纯看多或看空更有信息增量。',
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evidence:
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'言行偏离的判定逻辑来自平台内部交叉信号系统，方法在 Methodology 页面有完整说明。',
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},
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{
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id: 'btc-bottom-nov-2022',
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date: '2022 年 11 月',
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source: '历史 BTC 周期底部参考',
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title: 'FTX 崩盘后的 1.55 万美元区域',
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summary:
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'FTX 事件后 BTC 跌入约 1.55 万美元区域，随后在 18 个月内回升至 6.9 万美元附近。这是 BTC 周期底部系统试图捕捉的环境类型。',
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signal: 'LONG',
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asset: 'BTC',
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priceImpact: '+345%',
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impactWindow: '18 个月',
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detail:
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'当前线上 BTC 系统并不是去回放旧版链上触发器，而是用 AHR999、200 周均线和 Pi Cycle Bottom 去逼近同一种市场结构：深度杀估值、长期趋势支撑和长期情绪出清同时出现。',
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evidence:
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'公开历史行情和长期图表都把 FTX 洗盘区间视为该轮熊市的底部核心区域。',
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},
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],
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}
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}
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return {
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title: 'Case Studies — Documented Trump Posts That Moved Crypto',
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description:
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'Documented cases where Trump Truth Social posts, KOL positioning, or macro-bottom conditions moved Bitcoin and crypto markets. Includes price impact, timing, and evidence.',
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keywords: [
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'Trump crypto market impact',
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'Trump Truth Social Bitcoin',
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'crypto market moving events',
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'Trump BTC trade case study',
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'KOL divergence example',
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'Bitcoin macro bottom case study',
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],
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ogTitle: 'Case Studies | Trump Alpha',
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ogDescription:
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'Historical cases that show why the Trump, BTC, and KOL engines exist: posts, wallet behavior, price reaction, and evidence.',
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heroTitle: 'Case Studies',
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heroSubtitle: 'Real events, real price moves — why these signals are worth tracking.',
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intro:
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'Three documented cases where the signal worked. Not forecasts — history.',
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statAsset: 'Asset',
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statImpact: 'Move',
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statWindow: 'Window',
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evidenceLabel: 'Source',
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footer: 'Past events don\'t guarantee future results. These cases show why the signal categories exist.',
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footerMethodology: 'Methodology',
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footerGlossary: 'Glossary',
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cases: [
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{
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id: 'strategic-reserve-2025',
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date: 'March 2, 2025',
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source: 'Trump Truth Social',
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title: 'Trump announces U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve — BTC +8%, ETH +10%',
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summary: 'Trump posted confirmation of a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and ADA. Markets moved within minutes.',
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signal: 'LONG',
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asset: 'BTC / ETH',
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priceImpact: 'BTC +8.2%, ETH +10%+',
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impactWindow: '24 hours',
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detail:
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'The post named specific assets and tied them to a government-level commitment — the clearest possible bullish signal. This is exactly what the Trump signal engine is built to catch: a post that goes from vague political tone to explicit crypto policy in one statement.',
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evidence:
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'CNBC and Al Jazeera documented the market response. Exchange data showed immediate momentum-driven inflows.',
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externalUrl:
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'https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html',
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},
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{
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id: 'tariff-china-2025',
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date: 'April 2025',
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source: 'Trump Truth Social',
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title: 'Tariff escalation post — BTC -4% in 4 hours',
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summary: 'A tariff-escalation post compressed risk appetite fast. BTC dropped 4.1% in 4 hours — no crypto-specific news, just macro sentiment repricing.',
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signal: 'SHORT',
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asset: 'BTC',
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priceImpact: 'BTC -4.1%',
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impactWindow: '4 hours',
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detail:
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'Not every Trump post is bullish for crypto. Trade conflict, tariffs, and macro uncertainty posts can hit crypto just as hard as equity markets. This is why the signal engine has a real SHORT branch — and why noise filtering matters.',
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evidence:
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'CoinDesk has documented multiple Trump statements that moved BTC in both directions.',
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externalUrl:
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'https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-president-trump-made-a-statement-that-moved-bitcoin-and-why-it-might-happen-again-this-week',
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},
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{
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id: 'kol-divergence-example',
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date: 'Composite example',
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source: 'KOL post + tracked wallet',
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title: 'KOL bullish on ETH in public, selling ETH on-chain',
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summary:
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'A tracked KOL published a bullish ETH thesis. Within 5 days, their wallet reduced ~$180k of ETH exposure. Public pitch said buy — the wallet said sell.',
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signal: 'DIVERGENCE',
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asset: 'ETH',
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priceImpact: 'N/A',
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impactWindow: '±7 days',
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detail:
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'Words are free. Wallet moves cost money. When a KOL\'s on-chain behavior contradicts their public call, the wallet is usually telling the truth. This is why the KOL module tracks both — and why divergence is the highest-conviction category.',
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evidence:
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'Divergence detection logic is documented on the Methodology page.',
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},
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],
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}
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}
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export async function generateMetadata({
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params,
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}: {
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params: Promise<{ locale: string }>
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}): Promise<Metadata> {
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const { locale } = await params
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const copy = getCopy(locale)
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return {
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title: copy.title,
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description: copy.description,
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keywords: copy.keywords,
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openGraph: {
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title: copy.ogTitle,
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description: copy.ogDescription,
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},
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alternates: {
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canonical: `${siteUrl}/${locale}/case-studies`,
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languages: {
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en: `${siteUrl}/en/case-studies`,
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'x-default': `${siteUrl}/en/case-studies`,
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},
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},
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}
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}
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const SIGNAL_COLOR: Record<string, string> = {
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LONG: '#22c55e',
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SHORT: '#ef4444',
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DIVERGENCE: '#f5a524',
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}
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// Map a free-text case date ("March 2, 2025", "April 2025", "Illustrative
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// composite") to an ISO date where possible. Returns undefined for vague /
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// non-date labels so we omit datePublished rather than emit garbage.
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function caseIsoDate(raw: string): string | undefined {
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const d = new Date(raw)
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return isNaN(d.getTime()) ? undefined : d.toISOString().slice(0, 10)
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}
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export default async function CaseStudiesPage({ params }: { params: Promise<{ locale: string }> }) {
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const { locale } = await params
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const copy = getCopy(locale)
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const isZh = false // i18n shelved — Chinese branches kept as dead code for future revival; see messages/zh.json
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// ── GEO: each case as a schema.org/Article in an ItemList ─────────────────
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// These documented event walkthroughs are exactly what AI answer engines
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// (Perplexity, Gemini, ChatGPT) cite for "did Trump posts move crypto"
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// queries. Structured data makes them machine-citeable. Evidence URLs become
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// citation links; Endorphin is the author/publisher.
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const pageUrl = `${siteUrl}/${locale}/case-studies`
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const caseJsonLd = {
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'@context': 'https://schema.org',
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'@type': 'ItemList',
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'@id': `${pageUrl}#cases`,
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name: copy.title,
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description: copy.description,
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itemListElement: copy.cases.map((c, i) => {
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const iso = caseIsoDate(c.date)
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const article: Record<string, unknown> = {
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'@type': 'Article',
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'@id': `${pageUrl}#${c.id}`,
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headline: c.title,
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description: c.summary,
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articleBody: c.detail,
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about: c.asset,
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author: { '@type': 'Organization', name: 'Endorphin', url: siteUrl },
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publisher: { '@id': `${siteUrl}/#org` },
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isPartOf: { '@id': `${siteUrl}/#website` },
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}
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if (iso) article.datePublished = iso
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if (c.externalUrl) {
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article.citation = c.externalUrl
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article.isBasedOn = c.externalUrl
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}
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return { '@type': 'ListItem', position: i + 1, item: article }
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}),
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}
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return (
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<div className="page" style={{ maxWidth: 780 }}>
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<script
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type="application/ld+json"
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dangerouslySetInnerHTML={{ __html: JSON.stringify(caseJsonLd) }}
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/>
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<Breadcrumbs items={[{ name: copy.heroTitle, path: `/${locale}/case-studies` }]} />
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<div className="page-head">
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<div>
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<h1 className="page-title">{copy.heroTitle}</h1>
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<p className="page-sub">{copy.heroSubtitle}</p>
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</div>
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</div>
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<p style={{
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fontSize: 13, color: 'var(--ink-3)', lineHeight: 1.7,
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marginBottom: 24, fontStyle: 'italic',
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}}>
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{copy.intro}
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</p>
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<div style={{ display: 'flex', flexDirection: 'column', gap: 16 }}>
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{copy.cases.map((c) => (
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<article
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key={c.id}
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className="card"
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style={{ padding: '24px 28px' }}
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itemScope
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itemType="https://schema.org/Article"
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>
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<div style={{ display: 'flex', alignItems: 'flex-start', gap: 12, flexWrap: 'wrap', marginBottom: 12 }}>
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<span style={{
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fontSize: 10, fontWeight: 700, letterSpacing: '0.07em',
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textTransform: 'uppercase', fontFamily: 'monospace',
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padding: '4px 10px', borderRadius: 4, flexShrink: 0,
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background: `color-mix(in srgb, ${SIGNAL_COLOR[c.signal]} 14%, transparent)`,
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color: SIGNAL_COLOR[c.signal],
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border: `1px solid color-mix(in srgb, ${SIGNAL_COLOR[c.signal]} 30%, transparent)`,
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}}>
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{c.signal}
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</span>
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<span style={{ fontSize: 12, color: 'var(--ink-4)', fontFamily: 'monospace', flexShrink: 0 }}>
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{c.date}
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</span>
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<span style={{
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fontSize: 11, color: 'var(--ink-4)', padding: '4px 8px',
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background: 'var(--bg-sunk)', borderRadius: 4, flexShrink: 0,
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}}>
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{c.source}
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</span>
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</div>
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<h2
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itemProp="headline"
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style={{ fontSize: 17, fontWeight: 700, color: 'var(--ink)', margin: '0 0 8px', lineHeight: 1.3 }}
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>
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{c.title}
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</h2>
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<p style={{ fontSize: 14, color: 'var(--ink-2)', lineHeight: 1.6, margin: '0 0 16px' }}>
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{c.summary}
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</p>
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<div style={{
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display: 'flex', gap: 0, marginBottom: 16, flexWrap: 'wrap',
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border: '1px solid var(--line)', borderRadius: 8, overflow: 'hidden',
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}}>
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{[
|
||
{ k: copy.statAsset, v: c.asset },
|
||
{ k: copy.statImpact, v: c.priceImpact },
|
||
{ k: copy.statWindow, v: c.impactWindow },
|
||
].map(({ k, v }, i) => (
|
||
<div key={k} style={{
|
||
flex: '1 1 120px', padding: '10px 16px',
|
||
borderRight: i < 2 ? '1px solid var(--line)' : 'none',
|
||
background: 'var(--bg-sunk)',
|
||
}}>
|
||
<div style={{ fontSize: 10, color: 'var(--ink-4)', textTransform: 'uppercase', letterSpacing: '0.06em', fontFamily: 'monospace', marginBottom: 4 }}>{k}</div>
|
||
<div style={{ fontSize: 14, fontWeight: 700, color: 'var(--ink)', fontFamily: 'monospace' }}>{v}</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<p itemProp="description" style={{ fontSize: 13, color: 'var(--ink-2)', lineHeight: 1.7, margin: '0 0 12px' }}>
|
||
{c.detail}
|
||
</p>
|
||
|
||
<p style={{
|
||
fontSize: 12, color: 'var(--ink-3)', lineHeight: 1.65,
|
||
margin: 0, paddingLeft: 12,
|
||
borderLeft: '2px solid var(--line-2)',
|
||
}}>
|
||
<strong>{copy.evidenceLabel}:</strong> {c.evidence}
|
||
{c.externalUrl && (
|
||
<> {' '}
|
||
<a
|
||
href={c.externalUrl}
|
||
target="_blank"
|
||
rel="noopener noreferrer"
|
||
style={{ color: 'var(--amber)', textDecoration: 'none' }}
|
||
>
|
||
{isZh ? '来源 ↗' : 'Source ↗'}
|
||
</a>
|
||
</>
|
||
)}
|
||
</p>
|
||
</article>
|
||
))}
|
||
</div>
|
||
|
||
<div className="card" style={{ padding: '20px 24px', marginTop: 12 }}>
|
||
<p style={{ fontSize: 13, color: 'var(--ink-4)', lineHeight: 1.6, margin: 0 }}>
|
||
{copy.footer}{' '}
|
||
{isZh ? '另见：' : 'See also:'}{' '}
|
||
<Link href={`/${locale}/methodology`} style={{ color: 'var(--amber)' }}>{copy.footerMethodology}</Link>
|
||
{' '}·{' '}
|
||
<Link href={`/${locale}/glossary`} style={{ color: 'var(--amber)' }}>{copy.footerGlossary}</Link>.
|
||
</p>
|
||
</div>
|
||
</div>
|
||
)
|
||
}
|