From aa2d3fe2449a11fb60ccbe3736a092f4176a7049 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Codex Bot Date: Fri, 30 Oct 2026 05:35:30 +0800 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?=E8=A1=A5=E5=85=85Runable=E7=BB=8F=E8=90=A5?= =?UTF-8?q?=E6=A1=88=E4=BE=8B=E4=B8=8E=E5=95=86=E4=B8=9A=E6=A8=A1=E5=BC=8F?= =?UTF-8?q?=E5=88=9D=E8=AF=84?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- README.md | 4 +- apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts | 6 +- apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts | 10 +- .../docs/ai-company-research/00-overview.md | 31 ++++ content/research/ai-companies.seed.json | 144 +++++++++++++++++- content/research/ai-income-analysis.json | 2 +- 6 files changed, 185 insertions(+), 12 deletions(-) diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 76af01f..1750678 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -98,8 +98,8 @@ AUTH_CONFIG_FILE=/private/tmp/tabularium-auth/config.json AUTH_COOKIE_SECURE=fal 同一版本内容变化会拒绝导入，避免静默读取旧数据。回退代码时继续读取对应旧版本。 所有修改都经过工作分支和 PR，部署仍等待人工合并主线。 -当前资料包含 1,002 条公司/产品记录、10 类业务及待分类组、1,055 条证据记录和 126 条经营观测。 -其中保留 58 家个案资料、928 条目录基础资料，并新增 16 个平台产品/业务样本；目录项不等于完成财务和技术核验。 +当前资料包含 1,003 条公司/产品记录、10 类业务及待分类组、1,060 条证据记录和 129 条经营观测。 +其中保留 59 家个案资料、928 条目录基础资料，并新增 16 个平台产品/业务样本；目录项不等于完成财务和技术核验。 它是定向试样，收入披露不足且统计时点不统一，不代表全部 AI 公司。 界面将公司自述、第三方估算、融资、客户收入和履历收入分开，未知收入不记为零。 保留被撤回的声明作为核查记录，并排除收入比较；并购后业务、管理层预测与历史里程碑单列。 diff --git a/apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts b/apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts index e5bf459..b12a00a 100644 --- a/apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts +++ b/apps/docs/scripts/auth-cli.ts @@ -185,10 +185,10 @@ async function main() { assert.equal(researchResponse.status, 200, "authenticated research API"); assert.ok(researchResponse.headers.get("cache-control")?.includes("no-store")); const research = await researchResponse.json(); - assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1002); + assert.equal(research.companies.length, 1003); assert.equal(research.categories.length, 11); - assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 1055); - assert.equal(research.observations.length, 126); + assert.equal(research.evidence.length, 1060); + assert.equal(research.observations.length, 129); assert.equal((await request("/api/research/ai-companies", { method: "POST", headers })).status, 405); const researchPage = await request("/docs/other-research/ai-company-research/overview", { headers }); assert.equal(researchPage.status, 200); diff --git a/apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts b/apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts index ea5cd09..9b6efb4 100644 --- a/apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts +++ b/apps/docs/tests/research.test.ts @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ test("research revisions share the authentication database and preserve replay l for (let i = 0; i < 20; i++) consumeCode(config, "invalid"); assert.equal(consumeCode(config, "invalid"), "limited"); const initial = readResearchSnapshot(); - assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1002); - assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 1055); - assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 126); + assert.equal(initial.companies.length, 1003); + assert.equal(initial.evidence.length, 1060); + assert.equal(initial.observations.length, 129); assert.deepEqual(readResearchSnapshot(), initial, "reopening does not duplicate records"); const db = openSiteDatabase(); const tables = db.prepare("SELECT name FROM sqlite_master WHERE type='table'").all() as { name: string }[]; @@ -63,8 +63,8 @@ test("research validation rejects broken evidence and unsafe source links", () = test("disclosure counts exclude client income, biographies, targets and duplicate milestones", () => { const snapshot = seed as ResearchSnapshot; const summary = categorySummary(snapshot); - assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1002); - assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 8); + assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.count, 0), 1003); + assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.self, 0), 9); assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.estimate, 0), 1); assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.platform, 0), 16); assert.equal(summary.reduce((n, c) => n + c.unknown, 0), 977); diff --git a/content/docs/ai-company-research/00-overview.md b/content/docs/ai-company-research/00-overview.md index dc0e347..d789d95 100644 --- a/content/docs/ai-company-research/00-overview.md +++ b/content/docs/ai-company-research/00-overview.md @@ -3,3 +3,34 @@ 调查 2025—2026 年不同类型 AI 公司的业务、交付能力、规模与商业模式。分类表链接公司数据，公司数据链接经营指标与原始证据。 以下工作台读取研究数据库。首批为公开资料定向试样，成立、公开发布和转型发布分别记录。未披露收入的公司继续保留，避免把收入资料缺失误当成零收入。 + +## 商业模式初评：截至 2026-10-30 + +以下为研究假设，用于设计付费试验，尚不足以给行业排收益名次。规模、交付证据和收入来源必须一起看；目录条目数量不是市场需求，平台样本也存在自愿公开与幸存者偏差。 + +| 模式 | 工作台可搜索样本 | 当前证据 | 商业试验要测什么 | 主要缺项 | +| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | +| 企业获客与营销软件 | Gojiberry、Traxy AI、NotFair、ChatSEO | 有平台MRR记录，但同步日期不同 | 有效商机、续费与单客户贡献毛利 | 获客费、客户集中度、退款、留存 | +| 消费者个人应用 | nutrIA、Calyra、Verbi、ABMAXX | 有平台收入与订阅记录；订阅份数不是独立人数 | 渠道成本、后续月份留存、平台抽成后利润 | 取消与退款、月/年套餐结构、重复订阅 | +| 创意软件与制作服务 | Speel.co、Laper、GetEbook AI、White Glove Content | 软件订阅和交付服务必须分组 | 合格交付的计算与人工成本、返工率、重复购买 | 项目收入占比、人工工时、产能 | +| 小企业综合Agent | Runable（AI059） | 公司披露历史ARR里程碑；[官方公告](https://runable.com/blogs/runable-grow) | 限定一个任务，测完整成功率、收费与执行成本 | 当前付费客户、续费、推理成本、人工接管 | +| 行业专业Agent与服务 | Kaizen、Trapeze、Panacea | 官方介绍可确定买家场景，收入不可比 | 采购周期、上线工时、失败处理与验收标准 | 合同、经常性与实施费拆分、使用深度 | +| 模型、算力与机器人 | Wafer、Induction Labs、Congruent | 可确定产品方向；团队小或融资多不证明单位经济 | 客户真实负载、性能成本、交付与售后成本 | 同口径收入、资本开支、独立性能测试 | + +**对我们商业试验的推论：** 先选择能接触真实买家、结果可验收、成本可计量的工作流，比较软件订阅与服务交付的实际毛利，再评估是否扩成综合Agent。当前证据不足以断定某类必然更赚钱；平台数据更适合帮助选择访谈与试验对象。 + +收入里程碑还需结合成本核查：Runable创始人称毛利为负。[原始采访](https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/26/runable-hits-21m-to-bet-ai-agents-can-go-from-building-businesses-to-growing-them/) + +## ARR 分布与财务声明核查 + +目前可绘制的是按日期窗口、支付平台及收费模式分组的产品 **MRR** 分布。公司自述ARR缺少统一截止日、定义和独立凭证，尚不能形成可靠的行业ARR排名。MRR乘12仅为参考年化；项目收入、融资、近30日收款与ARR分别保存。 + +| 现象 | 后续核查 | 推断边界 | +| --- | --- | --- | +| 平均值远高于中位数，移除最大值后均值明显下降 | 回查大样本的日期、业务边界和收费模式 | 高离散度不等于造假 | +| ARR与近30日收款差距大 | 查年付、季付、退款、试用、币种及平台计算方法 | 不同指标不应机械相等 | +| 用户很多，付费数缺失 | 取得付费客户、套餐与账期数据，再核ARPA | 不能用注册人数直接反推真实性 | +| 公司、投资方与媒体重复一个数字 | 追到首发声明及独立底账 | 多篇转述不等于独立证据 | +| 声明撤回、口径变更或含并购业务 | 保留历史版本，拆分边界并核对更正原因 | 单个异常无法生成可靠造假概率 | + +下一轮优先取得统一业务截止日的ARR定义、付费客户变动、留存、收入与现金勾稽、直接成本及可独立复核的来源。缺项留在表内并保持未知。上述核查是研究流程，不是审计意见。 diff --git a/content/research/ai-companies.seed.json b/content/research/ai-companies.seed.json index e588ce5..c1cfab4 100644 --- a/content/research/ai-companies.seed.json +++ b/content/research/ai-companies.seed.json @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ { - "version": "2026-10-30-classification-2", + "version": "2026-10-30-income-2", "asOf": "2026-10-30", "scope": "全球公开资料研究：保留首批个案，并扩展核查2025—2026八个YC批次候选池；成立年份以官方公司页面字段为依据。", "limitations": [ @@ -28167,6 +28167,35 @@ "revenueStatus": "platform", "businessModel": "软件订阅", "entityBasis": "产品或业务，法律主体未核验" + }, + { + "id": "AI059", + "name": "Runable", + "url": "https://runable.com/about", + "cat": "C05", + "year": 2025, + "team": 15, + "location": "Bengaluru, India", + "business": "面向小企业的一体化Agent，生成网站及内容并辅助营销和日常运营。", + "buyer": "小企业经营者、个人经营者；官网定位，实际客户构成待核验", + "delivery": "公开网页产品与免费/付费计划；未进行独立端到端任务测试", + "notes": "官网历史ARR里程碑不等于8月或10月当前ARR；融资、用户及收入分开记录。技术与投放能力未经独立测试。", + "cohort": "2025年成立；投资机构称2026年3月推出通用Agent", + "teamBasis": "2026-08-26公司公告自述15人；不代表当前人数", + "price": "免费入口与Pro/Max付费计划，按月提供credits；页面价格数字动画抽取不可靠，本轮不记录精确价格", + "stage": "公开产品及付费计划；留存和单位经济未核验", + "sourceType": "公司自述、投资机构资料及原始采访", + "evidenceIds": [ + "RUN-ABOUT", + "RUN-ANN", + "RUN-INV", + "RUN-PRICE", + "RUN-MARGIN" + ], + "revenueStatus": "self", + "businessModel": "订阅与用量额度", + "entityBasis": "公司品牌；注册实体及地区登记尚未核验", + "classificationBasis": "公司定位为小企业综合经营平台，主类C05；营销和内容生成为次级功能。" } ], "observations": [ @@ -30280,6 +30309,51 @@ "observedAt": "2026-08-14", "provider": "Stripe", "origin": "payment-platform" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-O-ARR", + "company": "AI059", + "name": "Runable", + "kind": "原文称ARR", + "value": 2000000, + "unit": "USD", + "timing": "收费启动三周后；2026-08-26公告回顾，具体截止日未知", + "evidence": "RUN-ANN", + "scope": "公司整体", + "selection": "signal", + "reason": "历史自述，非公告时点当前值；经常性定义与留存待核验", + "bound": ">", + "comparisonGroup": null + }, + { + "id": "RUN-O-FUND", + "company": "AI059", + "name": "Runable", + "kind": "本轮融资", + "value": 21000000, + "unit": "USD", + "timing": "2026-08-26公告", + "evidence": "RUN-ANN", + "scope": "公司融资", + "selection": "funding", + "reason": "融资不计入收入或ARR", + "bound": "=", + "comparisonGroup": null + }, + { + "id": "RUN-O-USERS", + "company": "AI059", + "name": "Runable", + "kind": "用户数", + "value": 1500000, + "unit": "用户", + "timing": "2026-08-26投资方公告", + "evidence": "RUN-INV", + "scope": "平台用户", + "selection": "adoption", + "reason": "非付费客户数，不用于直接推算ARPA", + "bound": "=", + "comparisonGroup": null } ], "evidence": [ @@ -41887,6 +41961,61 @@ "kind": "应用身份核验", "summary": "核对应用商店ID，区分两个名称相近的营养应用。", "limitation": "商店页面不能验证TrustMRR收入，未把应用评级或下载量视作收入。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-ABOUT", + "companyId": "AI059", + "title": "Runable公司介绍", + "url": "https://runable.com/about", + "publishedAt": null, + "accessedAt": "2026-10-30", + "kind": "公司自述", + "summary": "公司注明2025年成立，创始团队位于Bengaluru，面向小企业建设和运营业务。", + "limitation": "成立年为公司自述，未核对工商注册文件。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-ANN", + "companyId": "AI059", + "title": "Runable融资与经营公告", + "url": "https://runable.com/blogs/runable-grow", + "publishedAt": "2026-08-26", + "accessedAt": "2026-10-30", + "kind": "公司自述", + "summary": "公告称收费启动三周后ARR超过200万美元，团队15人，宣布融资2100万美元；该ARR是历史里程碑，未披露精确业务截止日。", + "limitation": "未经审计，未给出ARR计算、留存和经常性合同明细；公告日期不等于ARR截止日。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-INV", + "companyId": "AI059", + "title": "Together Fund关于Runable的投资说明", + "url": "https://www.together.fund/perspectives/insights/together-with-runable-helping-small-businesses-build-run-and-grow", + "publishedAt": "2026-08-26", + "accessedAt": "2026-10-30", + "kind": "投资机构资料", + "summary": "投资方称2025年4月首次投资，2026年3月推出通用Agent；称150万用户与15人团队，并重复ARR里程碑。", + "limitation": "投资方存在利益关系，重复同一声明不构成独立收入核验；用户不等于付费客户。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-PRICE", + "companyId": "AI059", + "title": "Runable付费与额度说明", + "url": "https://runable.com/pricing", + "publishedAt": null, + "accessedAt": "2026-10-30", + "kind": "公司定价页", + "summary": "提供免费入口、Pro和Max计划及每月credits；具体价格数字的页面抽取结果存在歧义，未入数值表。", + "limitation": "价格与促销可变；套餐额度不能直接证明实际推理成本或客户ARPA。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-MARGIN", + "companyId": "AI059", + "title": "Runable创始人毛利说明", + "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/26/runable-hits-21m-to-bet-ai-agents-can-go-from-building-businesses-to-growing-them/", + "publishedAt": "2026-08-26", + "accessedAt": "2026-10-30", + "kind": "原始采访", + "summary": "创始人称毛利为负。", + "limitation": "受访者声明，未独立审计。" } ], "reviews": [ @@ -42163,6 +42292,19 @@ "MR-METHOD" ], "handling": "保留原值供核查账期、年付、退款与平台算法；不擅自纠正、不据差异判假，也不为改变统计结果而排除此点。" + }, + { + "id": "RUN-R-BASIS", + "type": "历史收入与单位经济", + "company": "Runable", + "summary": "历史ARR里程碑、融资与用户数不可互相替代；ARR增长仍需核查成本和留存。", + "evidenceIds": [ + "RUN-ANN", + "RUN-INV", + "RUN-MARGIN", + "RUN-PRICE" + ], + "handling": "保留原文ARR并标明日期不确定性，排除同期ARR统计；毛利声明仅作待核查经营线索，不推断造假。" } ], "coverage": { diff --git a/content/research/ai-income-analysis.json b/content/research/ai-income-analysis.json index ca2ae4a..d87a17c 100644 --- a/content/research/ai-income-analysis.json +++ b/content/research/ai-income-analysis.json @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ { - "sourceVersion": "2026-10-30-classification-2", + "sourceVersion": "2026-10-30-income-2", "asOf": "2026-10-30", "metric": "platform-mrr-usd", "sampleUnit": "product-or-business",