feat: show ARR disclosure coverage by business category

apps/docs/src/components/ArrDisclosures.tsx

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 import { useState } from "react";
 import { evidenceUrl, type ResearchSnapshot } from "@/lib/ai-research";
-import { arrDisclosures } from "@/lib/research-statistics";
+import { arrDisclosureCoverage, arrDisclosures } from "@/lib/research-statistics";
 
 const labels: Record<string, string> = {
   signal: "企业或当事方披露", estimate: "第三方估算",
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ export default function ArrDisclosures({ data, onSelect }: { data: ResearchSnaps
   const [category, setCategory] = useState("");
   const [year, setYear] = useState("");
   const rows = arrDisclosures(data, { category, foundedYear: year ? Number(year) : undefined });
+  const coverage = arrDisclosureCoverage(data, year ? Number(year) : undefined);
   const companies = new Set(rows.map((row) => row.company.id));
   const categories = new Map(data.categories.map((item) => [item.id, item.name]));
   const evidence = new Map(data.evidence.map((item) => [item.id, item]));
@@ -21,6 +22,16 @@ export default function ArrDisclosures({ data, onSelect }: { data: ResearchSnaps
       <label>业务分类<select value={category} onChange={(event) => setCategory(event.target.value)}><option value="">全部分类</option>{data.categories.map((item) => <option key={item.id} value={item.id}>{item.name}</option>)}</select></label>
       <label>成立年份<select value={year} onChange={(event) => setYear(event.target.value)}><option value="">2025 与 2026</option><option value="2025">2025</option><option value="2026">2026</option></select></label>
     </div>
+    <div className="research-table-wrap"><table>
+      <caption>ARR 披露覆盖：按所选成立年份、每家公司计一次。点击分类筛选下方证据表。</caption>
+      <thead><tr><th>业务分类</th><th>已采集公司</th><th>企业或当事方披露</th><th>仅第三方估算</th><th>缺少 ARR</th><th>披露覆盖率</th></tr></thead>
+      <tbody>{coverage.filter((item) => item.companies > 0).map((item) => <tr key={item.id}>
+        <td><button onClick={() => setCategory(item.id)} aria-pressed={category === item.id}>{item.name}</button></td>
+        <td>{item.companies}</td><td>{item.reported}</td><td>{item.estimatedOnly}</td><td>{item.missing}</td>
+        <td>{new Intl.NumberFormat("zh-CN", { style: "percent", maximumFractionDigits: 1 }).format(item.disclosed / item.companies)}</td>
+      </tr>)}</tbody>
+    </table></div>
+    <p className="research-muted">分母含仅有目录资料的公司，覆盖率反映本次采集深度，不代表行业披露率。企业披露含历史里程碑，同一公司兼有披露和估算时归企业披露；缺少 ARR 的公司仍可能有其他收入。披露时点、币种与合同定义未对齐，不能将已披露少数公司的均值外推至整个分类，也不能由离散性判断财务造假。</p>
     <div className="research-table-wrap"><table>
       <caption>金额保留原币种、下界和估算身份；日期栏保留业务截至日缺项</caption>
       <thead><tr><th>公司 / 分类</th><th>收费与交付模式</th><th>原始 ARR 声明</th><th>时点</th><th>身份 / 限制</th><th>证据</th></tr></thead>

apps/docs/src/lib/research-statistics.ts

@@ -15,6 +15,22 @@ export function arrDisclosures(snapshot: ResearchSnapshot, options: { category?:
     return [{ company, observation }];
   });
 }
+
+/** Count companies once; missing ARR is a coverage gap, never zero revenue. */
+export function arrDisclosureCoverage(snapshot: ResearchSnapshot, foundedYear?: number) {
+  const rows = arrDisclosures(snapshot, { foundedYear });
+  return snapshot.categories.map((category) => {
+    const companies = snapshot.companies.filter((company) => company.cat === category.id &&
+      [2025, 2026].includes(company.year ?? 0) && (!foundedYear || company.year === foundedYear));
+    const claims = rows.filter((row) => row.company.cat === category.id);
+    const disclosed = new Set(claims.map((row) => row.company.id));
+    const reported = new Set(claims.filter((row) =>
+      ["signal", "historical"].includes(row.observation.selection)).map((row) => row.company.id));
+    return { id: category.id, name: category.name, companies: companies.length,
+      disclosed: disclosed.size, reported: reported.size, estimatedOnly: disclosed.size - reported.size,
+      missing: companies.length - disclosed.size, records: claims.length };
+  });
+}
 export type IncomeStats = {
   n: number; mean: number; median: number; min: number; max: number;
   sampleDeviation: number | null; cv: number | null; meanMedianRatio: number | null;