# Trump Alpha

> A crypto research project by Endorphin, a research desk. Tracks four uncorrelated signals that move markets before consensus catches up: Trump Truth Social sentiment, Macro Vibes (crypto macro regime dashboard), KOL Substack/podcast signals, and talks-vs-trades on-chain divergence. Every signal is public and timestamped.

## What this site does

Trump Alpha is Endorphin's public signal desk: four independent signal engines and one macro context view in one live dashboard. All four dashboards are free to read — no account required, every call timestamped.

1. **Trump Truth Social Signal** — Scrapes Trump's Truth Social posts within 15 seconds of publish. AI classifies each post as LONG (bullish crypto), SHORT (bearish), or NOISE (off-topic) with a confidence score 0–100. Only posts scoring ≥ 88 confidence trigger the optional auto-trader. The entire pipeline from post to classification runs in under 3 seconds. Optional: auto-execute on Hyperliquid with isolated margin, automatic TP/SL, and six user-defined safety limits (leverage cap, position size, daily budget, active-hours window, confidence floor, stop-loss floor).

2. **Macro Vibes** — The crypto macro-regime dashboard. Surfaces eight free public macro signals in one view: AHR999, Fear & Greed Index, BTC dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, total stablecoin supply, US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flow, BTC perpetual open interest, and the Altcoin Season Index — plus two trade triggers:
   - **BTC Macro Bottom** (long-only): fires when ≥ 2 of 3 agree — AHR999 < 0.45, price ≤ 200-week MA × 1.05, Pi Cycle Bottom. Fires 2–4 times per multi-year cycle.
   - **BTC Funding Reversal**: fires when 30-day cumulative perp funding crosses ±3% AND the most recent cycles start cooling (mean-reversion bet against crowded positioning).

3. **KOL Signal** — 19 crypto KOL feeds ingested daily via RSS: Arthur Hayes (BitMEX co-founder), Delphi Digital, Dragonfly Capital, Bankless, Empire (Jason Yanowitz + Santiago Santos), Unchained (Laura Shin), 0xResearch (Blockworks), Lightspeed (Blockworks), Pomp (Anthony Pompliano), The Defiant, Reflexivity Research (Will Clemente), Bell Curve (Multicoin Capital), The Scoop (The Block / Frank Chaparro), TFTC (Marty Bent), checkmate (Glassnode), coinmetrics, willywoo (Willy Woo), glassnode, and Lyn Alden (Lyn Alden Investment Strategy). AI extracts: ticker(s) mentioned, directional stance (buy/sell/bullish/bearish/reduce/mention), and conviction score.

4. **Talks-vs-Trades Divergence** — The platform's highest-conviction signal. Cross-references each KOL's public posts against their on-chain Ethereum wallet changes within a ±7-day window. A DIVERGENCE fires when a KOL is publicly bullish but their wallet is selling (or vice versa). An ALIGNMENT fires when public stance and on-chain action agree. On-chain action is treated as ground truth — talk is cheap, wallet movements are not.

5. **Funding Rate Reversal** — Lives inside Macro Vibes. Monitors BTC perpetual funding rate at Binance. Extreme positive or negative 30-day cumulative funding (> ±3%) historically precedes mean-reversion; the scanner bets against the crowded side when rates start cooling.

6. **Hyperliquid Auto-Trader** — Optional execution layer for the Trump signal. Non-custodial: uses a trade-only Hyperliquid API key (cannot withdraw funds). You control: leverage (default 3×), position size, TP/SL percentages, daily budget cap, active-hours trading window, and minimum confidence threshold.

## Key concepts defined

**AHR999**: A composite Bitcoin valuation indicator combining price, the geometric mean of historical price, and an exponential growth model fit. Below 0.45 marks the deep-value / accumulation zone; above 1.2 means BTC is expensive relative to its growth trajectory.

**200-week Moving Average (200WMA)**: Long-cycle structural support. Every Bitcoin bear cycle since 2013 has bottomed within ±5% of this level. Used as one of three macro-bottom trigger conditions.

**Pi Cycle Bottom**: 150-day EMA crossing to ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745. A late-cycle capitulation signal that historically pinpointed the 2015, 2018, and 2022 BTC cycle bottoms within a 2-week window.

**Talks-vs-Trades divergence**: Comparing a KOL's public verbal position on an asset against what their on-chain wallet actually does within the same ±7-day window. The divergence signal (say one thing, do another) is treated as the higher-conviction indicator — on-chain behavior is harder to fake than a tweet or newsletter.

**KOL (Key Opinion Leader)**: In crypto, influential analysts, fund managers, podcast hosts, and content creators whose public views measurably move retail sentiment. Trump Alpha tracks 19 of them across Substack, podcast RSS, and blog feeds.

**Hyperliquid**: A decentralized perpetual futures exchange. Trump Alpha's auto-trader executes all positions there. API keys are trade-only (no withdrawal permissions) and are stored server-side encrypted.

**Isolated margin**: Each trade uses only the capital allocated to it. A losing trade cannot drain other positions or your full wallet — it is isolated to its own margin bucket.

## Who this is for

- Crypto traders who want to react to Trump's posts faster than manual monitoring allows
- Bitcoin cycle investors watching for macro-bottom confluence to size into long-term positions
- Sophisticated traders who want to know what prominent KOLs are actually doing on-chain vs. what they say publicly
- Anyone building or refining a systematic approach to crypto that uses multiple uncorrelated signals

## What makes Trump Alpha different

- **Speed**: Trump post → AI classification → optional trade in < 3 seconds. Manual monitoring can't compete.
- **On-chain ground truth**: The talks-vs-trades module treats wallet movements as more reliable than public statements. Most signal platforms only track what people say.
- **Four uncorrelated sources**: Trump macro sentiment, Bitcoin cycle indicators, KOL narratives, and funding extremes don't move together — combining them reduces false signals.
- **No custody**: Your API key can trade but cannot withdraw. Trump Alpha never touches your actual funds.

## Pricing

Free to read all four dashboards. No subscription required. No account needed to view signals.
The optional Hyperliquid auto-trader requires your own Hyperliquid account and a trade-only API key.

## Technology

- Backend: Python 3.9+ / FastAPI / SQLite (dev) + PostgreSQL (prod)
- AI signal extraction: Claude (Anthropic) — Haiku for KOL batch analysis, custom model for Trump live scoring
- On-chain data: Etherscan API (ERC-20 wallet tracking) + Hyperliquid public API (perp positions)
- Price data: Binance WebSocket (BTC/ETH/SOL/TRUMP/BNB/DOGE/LINK/AAVE) + Hyperliquid allMids (HYPE/PURR)
- Frontend: Next.js 16 / TypeScript / wagmi (Ethereum wallet connect)
- Alerts: Telegram bot with per-user signal preferences

## URLs

- Homepage / landing page: https://trumpsignal.com
- Trump Truth Social signal dashboard: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trump
- Macro Vibes (BTC cycle + macro + funding): https://trumpsignal.com/en/macro
- KOL signals & talks-vs-trades divergence: https://trumpsignal.com/en/kol
- Signal methodology (full technical explanation): https://trumpsignal.com/en/methodology
- Glossary (AHR999, Pi Cycle, MVRV-Z, KOL, divergence...): https://trumpsignal.com/en/glossary
- Case studies (documented Trump crypto post events with price impact): https://trumpsignal.com/en/case-studies
- FAQ: https://trumpsignal.com/#faq

## Contact

Site: https://trumpsignal.com