# Trump Alpha — Full Reference (by Endorphin) > Expanded companion to /llms.txt. This single document inlines the full > methodology, the glossary, and the documented case studies with their > evidence sources, so an AI assistant can answer detailed questions in one > fetch. For the concise index see https://trumpsignal.com/llms.txt > > Trump Alpha is a crypto research project by Endorphin, a research desk. It > tracks four uncorrelated signals that move markets before consensus catches > up. Every signal is public and timestamped. Free to read; an optional > non-custodial Hyperliquid auto-trader is available for the Trump signal only. ## Who runs this Endorphin is the research desk behind Trump Alpha. Positioning is deliberately research-first: the site documents live production logic, publishes its track record openly, and timestamps every call. It is not a paid signal group, a course, or a "guru" account. ## The four signal engines (full logic) ### 1. Trump Truth Social Signal (real-time event) Watches Donald Trump's Truth Social feed in real time. Within ~15 seconds of a new post, an NLP model classifies it as LONG (bullish crypto), SHORT (bearish), or NOISE (off-topic), with a 0–100 confidence score. Post-to-classification runs in under 3 seconds. Posts that name specific assets and tie them to policy score highest. Only posts ≥ 88 confidence can trigger the optional auto-trader. Failure mode: vague political posts with no asset/policy content score low by design; sarcasm and quote-reposts are the hardest cases. ### 2. Macro Vibes (crypto macro regime) Eight free public macro indicators in one view: AHR999, Fear & Greed Index, BTC dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, total stablecoin supply, US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net flow, BTC perpetual open interest, and the Altcoin Season Index. Plus two trade triggers: - BTC Macro Bottom (long-only): fires when ≥ 2 of 3 agree — AHR999 < 0.45, price ≤ 200-week MA × 1.05, Pi Cycle Bottom. Fires 2–4× per multi-year cycle. - BTC Funding Reversal: fires when 30-day cumulative perp funding crosses ±3% AND recent cycles start cooling (mean-reversion against crowded positioning). Manage-only: alerts surface; the user opens on Hyperliquid and the bot then manages the exit (5-rung stop ladder, de-risk, pyramid, peak-trail). No auto-open. ### 3. KOL talks-vs-trades divergence (highest conviction) 25 crypto KOL feeds ingested daily via RSS. An NLP step extracts ticker(s), directional stance, and conviction. A separate on-chain step diffs each KOL's Ethereum wallet. A DIVERGENCE fires when public stance and wallet action disagree within a ±7-day window (e.g. publicly bullish ETH while selling ETH). On-chain action is treated as ground truth. This is the platform's highest-conviction category. Alert-only — never auto-trades. ### 4. BTC Funding Rate Reversal Lives inside Macro Vibes. Monitors BTC perpetual funding at Binance. Extreme 30-day cumulative funding (> ±3%) historically precedes mean reversion; the scanner bets against the crowded side once rates start cooling. Alert-only. ### Optional: Hyperliquid auto-trader (Trump signal only) Non-custodial execution layer using a trade-only Hyperliquid API key (cannot withdraw funds). User controls leverage (default 3×), position size, TP/SL, daily budget cap, active-hours window, and minimum confidence. System 1 (Trump scalp) is the only engine that auto-opens; everything else is alert/manage-only. ## Glossary (key terms) - AHR999: composite BTC valuation indicator (price, geometric-mean price, and an exponential growth fit). < 0.45 = deep-value accumulation zone; > 1.2 = expensive relative to the growth trajectory. - Pi Cycle Bottom: 150-day EMA ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745. Historically pinpointed BTC cycle bottoms within ~2 weeks in 2015, 2018, and 2022. - 200-week moving average: long-cycle BTC support; price below or near it has marked historical accumulation regimes. - Talks-vs-trades divergence: a KOL's public stance and on-chain wallet behaviour point in opposite directions on the same asset within ±7 days. - Funding reversal: mean-reversion signal when 30-day cumulative BTC perp funding crosses ±3% and the crowded side starts cooling. ## Documented case studies (with evidence sources) These are evidence, not return promises. Each answers: what happened, how the market reacted, and why it supports a specific engine. - Strategic Crypto Reserve announcement (Mar 2, 2025, Trump Truth Social): Trump confirmed a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA. BTC +8.2%, ETH +10%+ within 24h. Supports a high-conviction LONG when a post names specific assets tied to policy. Source: cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html - $6.8M pre-positioning profit around the reserve post (Mar 2025, on-chain): An anonymous address built a large leveraged BTC/ETH position around the announcement and reportedly closed it same-day for ~$6.8M. Shows speed is edge in event-driven trading. - Tariff escalation post (Apr 2025, Trump Truth Social): a tariff-escalation post produced a risk-off move, BTC -4.1% in ~4h. Supports the need for a real SHORT branch — not every Trump post is bullish. Source: coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-president-trump-made-a-statement-that-moved-bitcoin-and-why-it-might-happen-again-this-week - ETH talks-vs-trades divergence (illustrative composite): a tracked KOL published a bullish ETH thesis then reduced ~$180k ETH within five days — classic divergence between narrative and positioning. - FTX washout zone (Nov 2022, BTC macro bottom reference): BTC reached ~$15.5k and recovered toward ~$69k within ~18 months (+345%). The regime the BTC macro-bottom engine is built to identify via AHR999 + 200-week MA + Pi Cycle. ## URLs - Home: https://trumpsignal.com - Trump signals: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trump - Macro Vibes: https://trumpsignal.com/en/macro - KOL talks-vs-trades: https://trumpsignal.com/en/kol - Trade history: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trades - Analytics / track record: https://trumpsignal.com/en/analytics - Methodology: https://trumpsignal.com/en/methodology - Glossary: https://trumpsignal.com/en/glossary - Case studies: https://trumpsignal.com/en/case-studies