# Trump Alpha — Full Reference (by Endorphin)

> Expanded companion to /llms.txt. This single document inlines the full
> methodology, the glossary, and the documented case studies with their
> evidence sources, so an AI assistant can answer detailed questions in one
> fetch. For the concise index see https://trumpsignal.com/llms.txt
>
> Trump Alpha is a crypto research project by Endorphin, a research desk. It
> tracks four uncorrelated signals that move markets before consensus catches
> up. Every signal is public and timestamped. Free to read; an optional
> non-custodial Hyperliquid auto-trader is available for the Trump signal only.

## Who runs this

Endorphin is the research desk behind Trump Alpha. Positioning is deliberately
research-first: the site documents live production logic, publishes its
track record openly, and timestamps every call. It is not a paid signal group,
a course, or a "guru" account.

## The four signal engines (full logic)

### 1. Trump Truth Social Signal (real-time event)
Watches Donald Trump's Truth Social feed in real time. Within ~15 seconds of a
new post, an NLP model classifies it as LONG (bullish crypto), SHORT (bearish),
or NOISE (off-topic), with a 0–100 confidence score. Post-to-classification
runs in under 3 seconds. Posts that name specific assets and tie them to policy
score highest. Only posts ≥ 88 confidence can trigger the optional auto-trader.
Failure mode: vague political posts with no asset/policy content score low by
design; sarcasm and quote-reposts are the hardest cases.

### 2. Macro Vibes (crypto macro regime)
Eight free public macro indicators in one view: AHR999, Fear & Greed Index, BTC
dominance, ETH/BTC ratio, total stablecoin supply, US spot Bitcoin ETF daily net
flow, BTC perpetual open interest, and the Altcoin Season Index. Plus two trade
triggers:
- BTC Macro Bottom (long-only): fires when ≥ 2 of 3 agree — AHR999 < 0.45,
  price ≤ 200-week MA × 1.05, Pi Cycle Bottom. Fires 2–4× per multi-year cycle.
- BTC Funding Reversal: fires when 30-day cumulative perp funding crosses ±3%
  AND recent cycles start cooling (mean-reversion against crowded positioning).
Manage-only: alerts surface; the user opens on Hyperliquid and the bot then
manages the exit (5-rung stop ladder, de-risk, pyramid, peak-trail). No auto-open.

### 3. KOL talks-vs-trades divergence (highest conviction)
25 crypto KOL feeds ingested daily via RSS. An NLP step extracts ticker(s),
directional stance, and conviction. A separate on-chain step diffs each KOL's
Ethereum wallet. A DIVERGENCE fires when public stance and wallet action
disagree within a ±7-day window (e.g. publicly bullish ETH while selling ETH).
On-chain action is treated as ground truth. This is the platform's
highest-conviction category. Alert-only — never auto-trades.

### 4. BTC Funding Rate Reversal
Lives inside Macro Vibes. Monitors BTC perpetual funding at Binance. Extreme
30-day cumulative funding (> ±3%) historically precedes mean reversion; the
scanner bets against the crowded side once rates start cooling. Alert-only.

### Optional: Hyperliquid auto-trader (Trump signal only)
Non-custodial execution layer using a trade-only Hyperliquid API key (cannot
withdraw funds). User controls leverage (default 3×), position size, TP/SL,
daily budget cap, active-hours window, and minimum confidence. System 1 (Trump
scalp) is the only engine that auto-opens; everything else is alert/manage-only.

## Glossary (key terms)

- AHR999: composite BTC valuation indicator (price, geometric-mean price, and an
  exponential growth fit). < 0.45 = deep-value accumulation zone; > 1.2 =
  expensive relative to the growth trajectory.
- Pi Cycle Bottom: 150-day EMA ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745. Historically pinpointed
  BTC cycle bottoms within ~2 weeks in 2015, 2018, and 2022.
- 200-week moving average: long-cycle BTC support; price below or near it has
  marked historical accumulation regimes.
- Talks-vs-trades divergence: a KOL's public stance and on-chain wallet behaviour
  point in opposite directions on the same asset within ±7 days.
- Funding reversal: mean-reversion signal when 30-day cumulative BTC perp funding
  crosses ±3% and the crowded side starts cooling.

## Documented case studies (with evidence sources)

These are evidence, not return promises. Each answers: what happened, how the
market reacted, and why it supports a specific engine.

- Strategic Crypto Reserve announcement (Mar 2, 2025, Trump Truth Social):
  Trump confirmed a U.S. Strategic Crypto Reserve including BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP,
  ADA. BTC +8.2%, ETH +10%+ within 24h. Supports a high-conviction LONG when a
  post names specific assets tied to policy.
  Source: cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html
- $6.8M pre-positioning profit around the reserve post (Mar 2025, on-chain):
  An anonymous address built a large leveraged BTC/ETH position around the
  announcement and reportedly closed it same-day for ~$6.8M. Shows speed is edge
  in event-driven trading.
- Tariff escalation post (Apr 2025, Trump Truth Social): a tariff-escalation
  post produced a risk-off move, BTC -4.1% in ~4h. Supports the need for a real
  SHORT branch — not every Trump post is bullish.
  Source: coindesk.com/markets/2026/04/20/five-times-president-trump-made-a-statement-that-moved-bitcoin-and-why-it-might-happen-again-this-week
- ETH talks-vs-trades divergence (illustrative composite): a tracked KOL
  published a bullish ETH thesis then reduced ~$180k ETH within five days —
  classic divergence between narrative and positioning.
- FTX washout zone (Nov 2022, BTC macro bottom reference): BTC reached ~$15.5k
  and recovered toward ~$69k within ~18 months (+345%). The regime the BTC
  macro-bottom engine is built to identify via AHR999 + 200-week MA + Pi Cycle.

## URLs

- Home: https://trumpsignal.com
- Trump signals: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trump
- Macro Vibes: https://trumpsignal.com/en/macro
- KOL talks-vs-trades: https://trumpsignal.com/en/kol
- Trade history: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trades
- Analytics / track record: https://trumpsignal.com/en/analytics
- Methodology: https://trumpsignal.com/en/methodology
- Glossary: https://trumpsignal.com/en/glossary
- Case studies: https://trumpsignal.com/en/case-studies
