# Trump Alpha

> AI-powered crypto intelligence platform. Tracks four uncorrelated signal sources: Trump Truth Social sentiment, on-chain Bitcoin bottom reversal, KOL Substack/podcast signals, and talks-vs-trades divergence.

## What this site does

Trump Alpha aggregates six independent crypto signal engines into one live dashboard:

1. **Trump Truth Social Signal** — Scrapes Trump's posts within 15 seconds of publish. AI classifies each as LONG (bullish crypto), SHORT (bearish), or NOISE (off-topic). Optional auto-trade on Hyperliquid with isolated margin, automatic TP/SL, and six user-defined safety limits.

2. **BTC Bottom Reversal** — Price-confluence scanner: fires a long-only buy signal when at least 2 of 3 classic macro-bottom signals agree — AHR999 < 0.45 (deep-value zone), price ≤ 200-week moving average × 1.05, Pi Cycle Bottom (150-day EMA ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745). No API keys, no on-chain data, no Glassnode dependency. Occurs 2–4 times per market cycle. Position is invalidated when AHR999 climbs back above 1.2.

3. **KOL Signal** — 19 crypto KOL feeds including Arthur Hayes, Delphi Digital, Dragonfly Capital, Bankless, Empire, Unchained, 0xResearch, Lightspeed, Pomp, The Defiant, Reflexivity Research (Will Clemente), Bell Curve (Multicoin), The Scoop (The Block), TFTC (Marty Bent). Posts and podcast episodes ingested daily via RSS. AI extracts ticker, direction (buy/sell/bullish/bearish), and conviction (0–1 float).

4. **Talks-vs-Trades Divergence** — Cross-references KOL public posts against their on-chain Ethereum wallet changes within a ±7-day window. Divergence fires when a KOL is publicly bullish but their wallet is selling (or vice versa). On-chain action is treated as ground truth. This is the platform's highest-conviction signal category.

5. **Funding Rate Reversal** — Monitors perpetual funding rates across major exchanges. Extreme positive or negative funding historically precedes mean-reversion. Signals fire when rates cross multi-cycle thresholds.

6. **Hyperliquid Auto-Trader** — Optional execution layer for the Trump pillar. Non-custodial: uses a trade-only API key (cannot withdraw). Configurable leverage, position size, TP/SL, daily cap, and active hours.

## Key concepts defined

**AHR999**: A composite Bitcoin valuation indicator combining price, the geometric mean of historical price, and an exponential growth model. Below 0.45 marks the deep-value / accumulation zone; above 1.2 invalidates a bottom thesis (BTC is no longer cheap).

**200-week Moving Average (200WMA)**: A long-cycle structural support — historically every Bitcoin bear cycle has bottomed within ±5% of this level. We require price ≤ 200WMA × 1.05 as one of the three macro-bottom triggers.

**Pi Cycle Bottom**: 150-day EMA falling to ≤ 471-day SMA × 0.745. A late-cycle capitulation signal — historically pinpointed the 2015, 2018, and 2022 BTC bottoms within a 2-week window.

**Talks-vs-Trades**: The practice of comparing a KOL's public verbal stance on an asset against their actual on-chain wallet behavior. Divergence between the two is a high-value contrarian signal.

**KOL (Key Opinion Leader)**: In crypto, influential analysts, fund managers, and content creators whose public views move retail sentiment.

## Pricing

Free to read all signals. No subscription. No account required for dashboards.
Optional: bring your own Hyperliquid account for auto-trading.

## Technology

- Backend: Python / FastAPI
- AI: Claude (Anthropic) for signal extraction
- On-chain: Etherscan API + Hyperliquid public API
- Frontend: Next.js 14

## URLs

- Homepage / landing: https://trumpsignal.com
- Trump signal dashboard: https://trumpsignal.com/en/trump
- BTC bottom reversal: https://trumpsignal.com/en/btc
- KOL signals & divergence: https://trumpsignal.com/en/kol
- Signal methodology (full technical detail): https://trumpsignal.com/en/methodology
- Glossary (MVRV-Z, STH-SOPR, KOL, divergence...): https://trumpsignal.com/en/glossary
- Case studies (documented Trump crypto events): https://trumpsignal.com/en/case-studies
- Settings / auto-trader config: https://trumpsignal.com/en/settings
- FAQ: https://trumpsignal.com/#faq
- About / canonical definition: https://trumpsignal.com/#about

## Contact

Site: https://trumpsignal.com
