Closes the loop on the asset-routing prompt change. Previously the v5
prompt emitted target_asset (e.g. SOL, TRUMP) but bot_engine still
read price_impact_asset and only ever traded BTC/ETH. Now the trade
actually fires on whatever perp the AI picked.
Schema (alembic 006):
posts.target_asset (str) — HL perp ticker, any of the universe
posts.category (str) — 6-class enum (direct_named, etc.)
posts.expected_move_pct (float) — AI's 1h move estimate
Wiring:
truth_social.py persists the three fields when creating Post rows.
bot_engine.py routing: asset = target_asset || price_impact_asset || BTC
Old rows (target_asset=NULL) fall back to legacy BTC/ETH path — no
retroactive scoring needed; new rows route correctly from now on.
Hyperliquid trader doesn't need changes — `coin` is already a parameter,
and analysis.py validated against HL_PERPS before storing target_asset
so by the time bot_engine reads the field, it's guaranteed tradeable.
Deployment:
alembic upgrade head # adds the 3 columns
Restart api container
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Why
v4 was firing buy/short on 13% of posts, but only 9% of those had a
≥1% move within the hour. Median move on 'actionable' was 0.298% vs
0.258% on 'hold' — a 1.15× signal-to-noise ratio (random would be 1.0).
The model was confabulating transmission chains to please the user
rather than holding when uncertain.
Separately: 'sell' meant 'close longs / de-risk' in the prompt but
was traded as 'open short' by bot_engine.py, producing systematically
negative results on sell signals (27% win rate vs 57% on real shorts).
What changed
• analysis.py rewritten as v5-extreme-alpha:
- Asymmetric error costs framing (false positive = -$30, FN = $0)
- 7-item checklist that MUST all pass before buy/short
- Only 4 named transmission paths (a/b/c/d); anything else = HOLD
- 5 positive + 5 negative few-shot examples
- UTC hour injected with liquidity context (Asia thin → stricter)
- Adversarial steelman self-check before final output
- confidence < 80 + checklist failure both force-collapse to HOLD
in code, regardless of what the model returns (defense-in-depth)
- 'sell' removed from output schema entirely
• bot_engine.py: stop trading 'sell' signals (treat as hold)
• Case-insensitive normalization on checklist values so model
returning 'None'/'True' (capitalized) doesn't slip through
Expected impact (to validate over next 2-3 weeks of new posts)
• actionable rate: 13% → 2-4%
• signal/hold MFE ratio: 1.15× → 3-5×
• ≥1% hit rate among actionable: 9% → 40-60%
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- New migrations for daily_budget, active_window, and bottrade snapshot
- Add trumpstruth scraper and price_impact_monitor service
- Expand bot_engine, hyperliquid, recovery, and tp_sl_monitor logic
- Update API/schemas/models for new features
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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