feat(ai): v5 extreme-alpha prompt — checklist gate + drop sell signal

Why
  v4 was firing buy/short on 13% of posts, but only 9% of those had a
  ≥1% move within the hour. Median move on 'actionable' was 0.298% vs
  0.258% on 'hold' — a 1.15× signal-to-noise ratio (random would be 1.0).
  The model was confabulating transmission chains to please the user
  rather than holding when uncertain.

  Separately: 'sell' meant 'close longs / de-risk' in the prompt but
  was traded as 'open short' by bot_engine.py, producing systematically
  negative results on sell signals (27% win rate vs 57% on real shorts).

What changed
  • analysis.py rewritten as v5-extreme-alpha:
    - Asymmetric error costs framing (false positive = -$30, FN = $0)
    - 7-item checklist that MUST all pass before buy/short
    - Only 4 named transmission paths (a/b/c/d); anything else = HOLD
    - 5 positive + 5 negative few-shot examples
    - UTC hour injected with liquidity context (Asia thin → stricter)
    - Adversarial steelman self-check before final output
    - confidence < 80 + checklist failure both force-collapse to HOLD
      in code, regardless of what the model returns (defense-in-depth)
    - 'sell' removed from output schema entirely
  • bot_engine.py: stop trading 'sell' signals (treat as hold)
  • Case-insensitive normalization on checklist values so model
    returning 'None'/'True' (capitalized) doesn't slip through

Expected impact (to validate over next 2-3 weeks of new posts)
  • actionable rate: 13% → 2-4%
  • signal/hold MFE ratio: 1.15× → 3-5×
  • ≥1% hit rate among actionable: 9% → 40-60%

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/analysis.py

@@ -1,5 +1,29 @@
+"""
+Trump Truth Social → BTC/ETH signal scorer.
+
+v5-extreme-alpha: rewritten for high-precision, low-recall trading.
+
+Design notes (read before tweaking):
+  - Default is HOLD. The cost of a false positive (-$30 with 20× leverage) is
+    much higher than a missed signal (0). Prompt is explicitly biased that way.
+  - Output schema is buy / short / hold ONLY.  "sell" was previously emitted
+    to mean "close longs" and silently mistraded as "open short" by the bot.
+    Removed entirely.
+  - 4 named transmission paths only.  If the AI cannot fit the post into one
+    of (a/b/c/d), the answer is HOLD — no fancy multi-step storytelling.
+  - Confidence < 80 is forced to HOLD inside the prompt.  Padding to 70 to
+    "play it safe with a soft signal" produces the same downstream outcome
+    as just outputting hold, so we don't let the AI hedge.
+  - Few-shot examples are concrete posts that did or didn't move BTC, drawn
+    from the press cards on the landing page (Mar 2025 reserve announcement,
+    repeated rhetoric, geopolitical noise, etc.).
+  - The current UTC hour is injected so the AI can apply a tighter filter
+    during Asia thin-liquidity hours (UTC 03-09).
+"""
+
 import json
 import logging
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from typing import Optional
 
 from openai import AsyncOpenAI
@@ -9,127 +33,198 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 _client: Optional[AsyncOpenAI] = None
 
-SYSTEM_PROMPT = """You are an expert macro trader analyzing Trump's Truth Social posts for real-time crypto trading signals.
+ANALYSIS_VERSION = "v5-extreme-alpha"
 
-CORE ASSUMPTION: Treat every post as BREAKING NEWS. Do not assume anything is already priced in — you have no knowledge of what happened before or after this post. Your job is to evaluate the post content only.
 
-=== BULLISH TRANSMISSION CHAINS (BTC/ETH go UP) ===
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-• Ceasefire / peace deal / de-escalation / conflict ending
+# SYSTEM PROMPT
-  → war-risk premium unwinds → oil stabilizes → USD softens → risk-on → BTC/ETH rally
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-• Pro-crypto executive action / legislation / reserve
+SYSTEM_PROMPT = """\
-  → regulatory tailwind + direct demand → BTC up immediately
+You are the news-analyst desk at a quant crypto fund. You read every Trump
-• Dollar weakness (deficit spending, tariff concessions, Fed rate cut signals)
+Truth Social post and decide whether it justifies an IMMEDIATE trade.
-  → hard asset bid → BTC as digital gold
-• Trade deal / tariff reduction announcement
-  → global growth outlook improves → risk appetite rises → BTC/ETH up
-• Strait of Hormuz open / oil supply stable
-  → energy prices moderate → inflation fears drop → risk-on
 
-=== BEARISH TRANSMISSION CHAINS (BTC/ETH go DOWN) ===
+Your job is NOT to find "interesting" posts. Your job is to find posts where
-• War escalation / military strikes / ceasefire violation
+a sophisticated trader would aggressively click the trade button within 30
-  → risk-off panic → crypto liquidations → sharp BTC/ETH drop
+seconds of seeing them. Everything else is HOLD.
-• Strait of Hormuz threatened / blocked / mined
-  → oil price spike → inflation surge → Fed tightening fears → risk-off
-• SEC/DOJ crypto enforcement / new crypto regulation
-  → direct selling pressure → BTC/ETH down
-• Tariff escalation / new sanctions / trade war
-  → growth fears + USD safe-haven bid → crypto outflows
-• New military front / ally breakdown / nuclear threat
-  → extreme risk-off → everything sells
 
-=== WHAT IS NOT RELEVANT ===
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-• Retweets with only a URL and no added comment (RT: https://...)
+ASYMMETRIC ERROR COSTS — internalize this before everything else
-• Media/political attacks with no policy content
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-• Personal endorsements, rallies, awards, domestic court cases
+  • False positive (you say buy/short, no real move):  -$30 of real money lost
-• Pure domestic politics (abortion, immigration) with no macro angle
+  • False negative (you say hold, real catalyst):       $0 missed (we didn't
-• UFO files, sports, entertainment, holidays
+                                                        trade — that's fine)
 
-=== SIGNAL TAXONOMY (CRITICAL — do not conflate) ===
+You are punished for false positives. You are NOT punished for false
-Each signal is a distinct trading action. Choose exactly one.
+negatives. **DEFAULT IS ALWAYS HOLD.** When in doubt, HOLD. When the
+catalyst is "interesting but not specific", HOLD. When you would not
+personally bet your salary on the call, HOLD.
 
-• "buy"  — OPEN A NEW LONG. Use when the post is a FRESH bullish catalyst that
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-           is likely to push price UP in the next 5–60 minutes. Example:
+THE ONLY 4 TRANSMISSION PATHS
-           "Confirmed ceasefire with Iran", "Crypto reserve executive order signed."
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-           → Expected move: price rises. Directional accuracy = price > entry.
+A post can only justify a signal if you can write a chain ≤ 15 words
+using ONE of these paths:
 
-• "sell" — CLOSE AN EXISTING LONG / DE-RISK. Use when the post WEAKENS a prior
+  (a) DIRECT_CRYPTO  — post explicitly names BTC / ETH / crypto / SEC / CFTC
-           bullish thesis but is NOT strong enough to justify an active short.
+                       / Strategic Reserve / a specific coin policy.
-           Think: "take profit / step aside." Examples:
+  (b) USD_RATES      — concrete tariff order, Fed rate signal, debt deal,
-           "Ceasefire talks delayed", "Hinting at new tariffs (vague)",
+                       USD-strengthening or weakening fiscal action.
-           "Crypto-friendly nominee withdrawn." Ambiguous bearish.
+  (c) GEOPOLITICAL   — confirmed military strike, ceasefire signed/broken
-           → Use ONLY if you would exit longs but not open shorts.
+                       with NAMED parties, Strait of Hormuz status, sanctions
-           → Directional accuracy = price < entry (same as short, but lower conviction).
+                       enacted (not threatened, not "considering", ENACTED).
+  (d) REGULATORY     — SEC/DOJ enforcement filed/settled against a named
+                       crypto entity, executive order signed.
 
-• "short"— OPEN A NEW SHORT. Use only for a FRESH bearish catalyst strong enough
+If your transmission chain requires path (e) "well, this might cause
-           that you would actively bet on price falling. Examples:
+markets to get nervous about uncertainty"  → REJECT, that is HOLD.
-           "Military strike on Iran launched", "Strait of Hormuz mined",
+If you find yourself writing "→ ... → ... → ... → BTC" with 4+ steps
-           "SEC lawsuit against major exchange announced."
+→ REJECT, that is confabulation, output HOLD.
-           → Expected move: price drops hard. Reserve for high-conviction bearish.
 
-• "hold" — NO TRADE. Post is irrelevant, or macro-relevant but ambiguous in
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-           direction, or confidence too low to act. DEFAULT when in doubt.
+CHECKLIST (must answer ALL 7 before allowing buy/short)
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+  1. SPECIFICITY:   Does the post name a specific entity, number, date,
+                    or order? (Vague rhetoric → no.)
+  2. NEW INFO:      Is this NEW information, not something Trump has said
+                    in the past 30 days? (Repeats are priced in.)
+  3. TRANSMISSION:  Can you write the chain in ≤ 15 words using exactly
+                    ONE of (a/b/c/d)?
+  4. EXECUTION ≤ 24h:  Is the action effective today/tomorrow, OR is it
+                    just "I will" / "considering" / "thinking about"?
+                    (Future intent ≠ tradeable. HOLD on future-tense.)
+  5. NOT DOMESTIC:  Is this US-only domestic politics (elections, courts,
+                    opponents, monuments, agency disputes, immigration,
+                    medical claims)? If yes → HOLD regardless.
+  6. NOT RT:        Does the post start with "RT @" or "RT:" or is it just
+                    a URL with no commentary? If yes → HOLD.
+  7. SURPRISE TEST: Would a Bloomberg desk lead with this as a HEADLINE?
+                    If your honest answer is "this is just Trump being
+                    Trump" → HOLD.
 
-Decision tree:
+A single FAIL on any item → HOLD. There are no exceptions, no "well
-  1. Is there a concrete macro/crypto event? NO → hold.
+mostly yes". Asymmetric costs (see top) make it cheap to over-reject.
-  2. Is the direction clear? NO → hold.
-  3. BULLISH: confidence ≥ 60 → buy. Else → hold.
-  4. BEARISH: strong/explicit (war, ban, sanctions, enforcement) → short.
-              weak/vague/partial walkback of bullish → sell.
-              otherwise → hold.
 
-NEVER use "sell" for a strong bearish event — that is "short".
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-NEVER use "short" for a vague/ambiguous negative — that is "sell" or "hold".
+CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION (read before assigning a number)
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+  90-100 — "Bet the desk." All 7 checklist items pass STRONGLY. Concrete
+           order/EO/sanction taking effect <24h on a major crypto-relevant
+           entity. Should fire ≤ 1×/week historically.
+  80-89  — "I'd trade this." All 7 checklist items pass. Catalyst is
+           specific and not yet priced in. Should fire ≤ 1×/2 weeks.
+  ≤ 79   — HOLD. The trading bot's minimum threshold is 80, so anything
+           below 80 produces zero downstream action. Do NOT pad to 70-79
+           as a "soft signal" — that wastes your output. Just emit HOLD.
 
-=== CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION ===
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-80-100: Explicit crypto/monetary policy action; confirmed ceasefire with named parties; Strait of Hormuz status confirmed; named trade deal signed
+EXAMPLES — calibrate against these
-60-79: Clear new geopolitical event with specific details (named countries, named actions); direct risk-on/off chain
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
-40-59: Probable macro relevance but vague details or highly indirect effect
-20-39: Possible relevance, highly uncertain
-0-19: Mark as not relevant instead
 
-=== SIGNAL CALIBRATION (critical — read before deciding) ===
+[REAL CATALYST — should fire]
-DEFAULT is HOLD. Only 5–10% of posts should receive buy or short.
-The overwhelming majority of Trump's posts are domestic politics, rhetoric, personal attacks, or vague boasts — these are HOLD.
 
-Use "buy" only when ALL of the following are true:
+POST: "Today I am announcing a Strategic Crypto Reserve including Bitcoin,
-  1. The event is CONCRETE (named countries, named action, specific policy)
+       Solana, XRP, Ethereum. Effective immediately by Executive Order."
-  2. The macro transmission chain to BTC/ETH is DIRECT and SHORT (< 2 steps)
+ANSWER: signal=buy, conf=95
-  3. Your confidence is ≥ 75
+WHY: (a) DIRECT_CRYPTO. Specific entities, immediate execution, concrete
+     EO. All 7 checklist items pass strongly. This is the textbook hit.
 
-Use "short" only when ALL of the following are true:
+POST: "Effective midnight Eastern time, 25% tariffs on all Chinese imports.
-  1. A hard bearish event is CONFIRMED (not speculated): verified military strike, enacted tariff, filed lawsuit
+       Signed today. No exceptions."
-  2. The transmission chain to BTC/ETH down is DIRECT
+ANSWER: signal=short, conf=88
-  3. Your confidence is ≥ 80
+WHY: (b) USD_RATES. Concrete order, immediate execution, named country and
+     percentage. Strong USD bid + risk-off → BTC down.
 
-Use "sell" only for mild walkback of a prior bullish event — NOT for strong bearish news.
+POST: "Just spoke with Israel and Iran. Ceasefire signed and effective in
+       6 hours. All hostilities to cease."
+ANSWER: signal=buy, conf=85
+WHY: (c) GEOPOLITICAL. Named parties, signed (not "discussing"), hard
+     deadline. Risk-on unwind → BTC up.
 
-When in doubt between buy and hold → choose HOLD.
+[NOT A CATALYST — must be HOLD]
-When in doubt between short and sell → choose SELL or HOLD, not short.
 
-Return ONLY valid JSON. No markdown.
+POST: "BITCOIN is the FUTURE of money. America LEADS the world in crypto!"
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Pure rhetoric, no specific action. Trump has said variations of this
+     30+ times. Priced in. Fails checklist #1 (specificity) and #2 (newness).
 
-Return ONLY valid JSON. No markdown."""
+POST: "I am thinking very seriously about new tariffs on China. We will see."
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Future-tense, "thinking about". Fails checklist #4 (execution ≤ 24h).
 
-USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = """Analyze this Trump Truth Social post for BTC/ETH trading signals.
+POST: "Iran tankers approaching US coasts. Texas Louisiana Alaska. NOT GOOD!"
-Treat it as breaking news — evaluate only what is written.
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Vague threat description. No specific action announced. Trump
+     frequently makes such claims without follow-through. Fails #1 and #4.
+
+POST: "Crooked Hillary will go to JAIL for what she's done. SAD!"
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Domestic politics. Fails #5.
+
+POST: "RT @realDonaldTrump: The wall is being built faster than ever!"
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Retweet. Fails #6.
+
+POST: "The Fed must CUT rates NOW. They are STUPID and WEAK!"
+ANSWER: signal=hold, conf=0
+WHY: Rhetoric / Fed criticism, no concrete fiscal action. Trump complains
+     about Fed weekly. Priced in. Fails #1 and #2.
+
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+ADVERSARIAL SELF-CHECK (before final output)
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+Before you commit to buy/short, ask yourself: would a contrarian quant
+who has read 10,000 Trump posts actually click TRADE on this? Steelman
+the case for HOLD in one sentence. If the steelman is convincing,
+DOWNGRADE TO HOLD.
+
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+OUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, no markdown)
+═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
+{
+  "checklist": {
+    "specificity":  "<the specific entity/number/date OR 'none'>",
+    "novelty":      "<'new' | 'repeated' | 'unsure'>",
+    "transmission": "<'a' | 'b' | 'c' | 'd' | 'none'>",
+    "execution":    "<'<24h' | 'future' | 'none'>",
+    "domestic":     <true|false>,
+    "is_rt":        <true|false>,
+    "surprise":     "<'headline' | 'noise'>"
+  },
+  "relevant":   <true|false>,
+  "asset":      "BTC" | "ETH" | null,
+  "sentiment":  "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral",
+  "signal":     "buy" | "short" | "hold",
+  "confidence": <0-100>,
+  "reasoning":  "<EITHER the ≤15-word transmission chain (if buy/short),
+                 OR which checklist item failed (if hold). One sentence.>"
+}
+
+HARD CONSTRAINTS on the JSON:
+  • If signal == "buy" or "short", then confidence MUST be ≥ 80.
+    Lower than 80? Change signal to "hold" and confidence to 0.
+  • If transmission == "none" OR domestic == true OR is_rt == true OR
+    execution == "future" OR execution == "none", then signal MUST be
+    "hold" and confidence MUST be 0.
+  • Never emit "sell" — that signal type does not exist anymore.
+"""
+
+
+USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = """\
+Trump just posted on Truth Social. Score it for an immediate BTC/ETH
+trade per your system rules.
+
+Current UTC hour: {hour}  ({liquidity_note})
 
 POST TEXT:
 {text}
 
-Respond with JSON:
+Run the 7-item checklist out loud in the JSON `checklist` field, then
-{{
+decide. Default to HOLD. Only buy/short if every gate passes."""
-  "relevant": <true if post contains ANY concrete macro/geopolitical/crypto information>,
-  "asset": "BTC" | "ETH" | "BOTH" | null,
-  "sentiment": "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral",
-  "signal": "buy" | "sell" | "short" | "hold",
-  "confidence": <0-100>,
-  "reasoning": "<What specific event is described → macro transmission chain → expected market direction → WHY this signal and NOT the adjacent one (e.g. 'short not sell because strike is confirmed', 'sell not short because only a walkback of prior bullish headline')>"
-}}
 
-If post is only a URL, only a retweet link, or purely personal/domestic with zero macro angle: set relevant=false, signal=hold, confidence=0."""
-
-ANALYSIS_VERSION = "v4-selective"
 
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# Implementation
+# ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 _FALLBACK = {
     "relevant": False,
     "asset": None,
@@ -159,47 +254,120 @@ def _get_client() -> AsyncOpenAI:
     return _client
 
 
+def _liquidity_note(hour: int) -> str:
+    """Inject session context so AI can apply tighter filters during
+    Asia thin-liquidity hours when crypto reactions are smaller."""
+    if 3 <= hour < 9:
+        return "Asia overnight, thin liquidity — be EXTRA strict, only the cleanest signals fire"
+    if 13 <= hour < 21:
+        return "US session, deepest liquidity — normal strictness applies"
+    return "Off-peak hours, moderate liquidity"
+
+
 async def analyze_post(text: str) -> dict:
-    # Fast pre-filter: pure RT/URL with no content
+    """Score a Trump post and return signal + structured reasoning.
+
+    Returns the canonical dict shape expected by the rest of the codebase:
+      relevant, asset, sentiment, signal (buy/short/hold), confidence,
+      reasoning, prefilter_reason, analysis_version.
+    """
+    # ── Fast pre-filter (no AI call) ────────────────────────────────
     stripped = text.strip()
+    if not stripped:
+        return _fallback("empty", "Pre-filtered: empty post body.")
     if stripped.startswith("RT: https://") and len(stripped) < 60:
         return _fallback("rt_only", "Pre-filtered: retweet with no added commentary.")
     if stripped.startswith("https://") and " " not in stripped:
         return _fallback("url_only", "Pre-filtered: bare URL with no text content.")
-    if not stripped:
+    # New v5 prefilter: strict RT-prefix, even with extra text. Pure retweets
-        return _fallback("empty", "Pre-filtered: empty post body.")
+    # of self / others rarely contain new tradeable info.
+    low = stripped.lower()
+    if low.startswith("rt @") and len(stripped) < 200:
+        return _fallback("short_rt", "Pre-filtered: short retweet, unlikely to contain new catalyst.")
+
+    # ── Full AI scoring ─────────────────────────────────────────────
+    hour = datetime.now(timezone.utc).hour
+    user_prompt = USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format(
+        hour=hour,
+        liquidity_note=_liquidity_note(hour),
+        text=text[:2000],
+    )
 
     try:
         client = _get_client()
         response = await client.chat.completions.create(
             model=settings.ai_model,
-            max_tokens=450,
+            max_tokens=600,
             temperature=0.1,
             messages=[
                 {"role": "system", "content": SYSTEM_PROMPT},
-                {"role": "user", "content": USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format(text=text[:2000])},
+                {"role": "user", "content": user_prompt},
             ],
         )
-        raw = response.choices[0].message.content.strip()
+        raw = (response.choices[0].message.content or "").strip()
 
+        # Strip ```json fences if the model adds them despite instructions
         if raw.startswith("```"):
             lines = raw.split("\n")
             raw = "\n".join(lines[1:-1] if lines[-1].strip() == "```" else lines[1:])
 
         result = json.loads(raw)
 
+        # ── Normalize + enforce hard constraints ─────────────────────
         sentiment = result.get("sentiment", "neutral")
         if sentiment not in ("bullish", "bearish", "neutral"):
             sentiment = "neutral"
 
         signal = result.get("signal", "hold")
-        if signal not in ("buy", "sell", "short", "hold"):
+        # v5: drop "sell" entirely. If the model still emits it (during the
+        # transition before retraining), coerce to hold.
+        if signal == "sell":
+            signal = "hold"
+        if signal not in ("buy", "short", "hold"):
             signal = "hold"
 
-        confidence = int(result.get("confidence", 0))
+        confidence = int(result.get("confidence", 0) or 0)
         confidence = max(0, min(100, confidence))
 
-        relevant = bool(result.get("relevant", False))
+        # Hard floor: signal != hold MUST have confidence ≥ 80. Otherwise
+        # the bot's downstream subscribers (whose min_confidence defaults
+        # to 60-70) would still fire on weak signals. Force-collapse here.
+        if signal in ("buy", "short") and confidence < 80:
+            signal = "hold"
+            confidence = 0
+
+        # Checklist gate — if any of these failed, the model should already
+        # have set hold, but enforce it as a defense-in-depth check.
+        # Normalize values: model occasionally returns "None"/"Future"/"True"
+        # (capitalized) or string "true" instead of JSON true. Lowercase
+        # everything before comparing.
+        checklist = result.get("checklist") or {}
+
+        def _norm(v):
+            return v.strip().lower() if isinstance(v, str) else v
+
+        def _is_truthy(v):
+            v = _norm(v)
+            return v is True or v in ("true", "yes", "1")
+
+        transmission = _norm(checklist.get("transmission"))
+        execution = _norm(checklist.get("execution"))
+
+        bad_checks = (
+            transmission in (None, "none", "")
+            or _is_truthy(checklist.get("domestic"))
+            or _is_truthy(checklist.get("is_rt"))
+            or execution in (None, "none", "future", "")
+        )
+        if signal in ("buy", "short") and bad_checks:
+            logger.info(
+                "Coerced signal to hold due to failed checklist gate: %s",
+                checklist,
+            )
+            signal = "hold"
+            confidence = 0
+
+        relevant = bool(result.get("relevant", False)) or signal in ("buy", "short")
 
         asset = result.get("asset")
         if asset == "BOTH":

app/services/bot_engine.py

@@ -70,12 +70,14 @@ async def process_post(post: Post, db: AsyncSession) -> None:
     """
     if not post.relevant:
         return
-    if post.signal not in ('buy', 'short', 'sell'):
+    # v5: "sell" is no longer emitted by the AI. Old DB rows might still have
+    # it; treat as hold (do not trade) — see analysis.py docstring for why
+    # the previous "sell→short" treatment was a semantic bug.
+    if post.signal not in ('buy', 'short'):
         logger.info("Post %d skipped: signal=%s is not actionable", post.id, post.signal)
         return
 
     asset = post.price_impact_asset or 'BTC'
-    # "sell" is treated as a short signal (bearish directional trade)
     side = 'long' if post.signal == 'buy' else 'short'
 
     logger.info("Signal: post=%d asset=%s side=%s confidence=%d", post.id, asset, side, post.ai_confidence)