Pre-launch hardening: KOL module, Telegram, scanners, WS resilience

Big-picture changes since b941223:

KOL pipeline (new) — Substack/podcast/blog RSS → AI ticker extraction →
on-chain wallet diff → talks-vs-trades divergence detection. Daily polls,
19 feeds, divergence emits Post + Telegram fan-out.

Telegram push (new) — walletless free tier + wallet-linked Pro upgrade,
in-bot preference commands (/trump /btc /funding /kol /conf /quiet),
signed-envelope API for dashboard. Disconnect-wallet keeps free
subscription.

BTC funding-rate reversal scanner (new) — hourly cron, 30d cumulative
funding threshold + mean-revert + 7d price confirm, emits via
/api/signals/ingest. BTC bottom-reversal scanner promoted to System 2.

WS broadcast rewrite — per-client send timeout + parallel fan-out
(asyncio.gather). Fixes "Binance WS no close frame" reconnect storms +
APScheduler 11-min job misses, both caused by one slow client stalling
the kline loop.

Error visibility — three silent-error sites (trumpstruth/truth_social
fetchers, funding_reversal scanner) now include exception type name so
httpx ConnectError-style empty-message errors stop logging blank lines.
Telegram bot loop now classifies ReadTimeout vs network vs unknown +
logger.exception for the unknown bucket.

Security hygiene — trumpsignal.db untracked from git (held subscriber
wallets + encrypted HL keys + 22 bot trades); .gitignore now blocks
*.db/.next/backups. CORS only allows FRONTEND_URL in production.

New ops scripts —
  - scripts/preflight.py: env/DB/Telegram/AI auth verification gate
  - scripts/backup_db.sh: cron-friendly daily DB backup (SQLite + Postgres)
  - scripts/seed_kol_wallets.py: idempotent KOL on-chain wallet seeder

15 new Alembic migrations (007-021) covering convex strategy fields,
phase-1 safety, two-system frozen exits, invalidation prices, dynamic
SYS2 leverage, staged de-risk + pyramiding, peak gain tracking, risk
mode, auto-trade + grow flags, KOL module, KOL on-chain, KOL divergence,
Telegram bindings + walletless.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/services/scanners/btc_bottom_reversal.py

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+"""BTC bottom-reversal long scanner — 2-of-3 price confluence.
+
+Simple, transparent, no on-chain data and no API keys. Fires only when at
+least TWO of these three classic bottom signals agree:
+
+  A. AHR999 < 0.45            — deep-value / bottom zone
+  B. price ≤ 200-week MA ×1.05 — every cycle has bottomed near the 200WMA
+  C. Pi Cycle Bottom          — 150d EMA ≤ 471d SMA × 0.745
+
+Long only, low frequency, stateless. No tight stop (real macro bottoms wick
+15–30%); the position is invalidated when AHR999 climbs back above 1.2 — i.e.
+BTC is no longer cheap and the bottom thesis is spent.
+"""
+
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+import httpx
+
+from app.config import settings
+from app.services import scanner_state
+from app.services.market_data import for_asset, drop_in_progress_bar
+from app.services.bottom_indicators import bottom_confluence
+
+SCANNER_NAME = "btc_bottom_reversal"
+scanner_state.register(SCANNER_NAME)
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+ASSET = "BTC"
+COOLDOWN_DAYS = 30
+# 3 votes → max conviction; 2 votes → solid. Scale confidence with agreement.
+CONFIDENCE_BY_VOTES = {2: 88, 3: 94}
+EXPECTED_MOVE_PCT = 25.0
+# Pi Cycle needs 471 daily closes; +buffer for the dropped in-progress bar.
+DAILY_LOOKBACK_DAYS = 520
+# 200-week MA needs 200 weekly closes; +buffer.
+WEEKLY_LOOKBACK_WEEKS = 210
+
+
+async def evaluate_once() -> tuple[bool, dict]:
+    provider = for_asset(ASSET)
+
+    raw_daily = await provider.fetch_1d(ASSET, days=DAILY_LOOKBACK_DAYS)
+    daily = drop_in_progress_bar(raw_daily, "1d")
+    raw_weekly = await provider.fetch_1w(ASSET, weeks=WEEKLY_LOOKBACK_WEEKS)
+    weekly = drop_in_progress_bar(raw_weekly, "1w")
+
+    if not daily:
+        return False, {"reason": "missing_btc_daily"}
+    if not weekly:
+        return False, {"reason": "missing_btc_weekly"}
+
+    daily_closes = [float(c["close"]) for c in daily if c.get("close")]
+    weekly_closes = [float(c["close"]) for c in weekly if c.get("close")]
+
+    conf = bottom_confluence(daily_closes, weekly_closes)
+    debug: dict = dict(conf.detail)
+
+    if not conf.fired:
+        debug["reason"] = "confluence_not_met"
+        return False, debug
+
+    confidence = CONFIDENCE_BY_VOTES.get(conf.votes, 88)
+    debug["confidence"] = confidence
+    # No tight stop. Thesis is invalidated when BTC is no longer cheap; the
+    # 200WMA band is a useful structural reference for the exit monitor.
+    debug["invalidation_price"] = debug.get("wma200")
+    return True, debug
+
+
+def _summary(debug: dict) -> str:
+    s = debug.get("signals", {})
+    on = [k for k, v in s.items() if v]
+    return (
+        f"BTC bottom confluence ({debug.get('votes')}/3): {', '.join(on)}. "
+        f"AHR999 {debug.get('ahr999')} (<{debug.get('ahr999_threshold')}), "
+        f"price {debug.get('price')}, 200WMA {debug.get('wma200')}, "
+        f"Pi 150EMA {debug.get('pi_ema150')} vs 471SMA×0.745 "
+        f"{debug.get('pi_sma471_scaled')}. No tight stop; "
+        f"invalidate if AHR999 > 1.2."
+    )
+
+
+async def _emit_signal(debug: dict) -> bool:
+    """POST the signal to the ingest endpoint. Returns True iff a Post was
+    (idempotently) created. False means the signal was NOT recorded — caller
+    must NOT treat the run as 'fired' (cooldown is keyed off the DB Post)."""
+    if not settings.ingest_api_key:
+        logger.error("BTC bottom-reversal would fire but INGEST_API_KEY empty "
+                     "— signal NOT recorded, check deploy env")
+        return False
+    payload = {
+        "source": "btc_bottom_reversal",
+        "external_id": f"btc-bottom-{datetime.now(timezone.utc).strftime('%Y%m%d')}",
+        "text": _summary(debug),
+        "signal": "buy",
+        "target_asset": ASSET,
+        "confidence": debug["confidence"],
+        "category": "btc_bottom_reversal_long",
+        "expected_move_pct": EXPECTED_MOVE_PCT,
+        "invalidation_price": debug.get("invalidation_price"),
+    }
+    async with httpx.AsyncClient(timeout=10) as client:
+        resp = await client.post(
+            "http://localhost:8000/api/signals/ingest",
+            json=payload,
+            headers={"X-Ingest-Key": settings.ingest_api_key},
+        )
+        if resp.status_code >= 400:
+            logger.error("BTC bottom-reversal ingest failed (%d): %s",
+                         resp.status_code, resp.text[:200])
+            return False
+        logger.info("BTC bottom-reversal signal emitted: %s", resp.json())
+        return True
+
+
+async def scan_once() -> None:
+    if not scanner_state.is_enabled(SCANNER_NAME):
+        logger.debug("BTC bottom-reversal scanner disabled — skipping run")
+        return
+    if await scanner_state.in_cooldown("btc_bottom_reversal", ASSET, COOLDOWN_DAYS):
+        logger.debug("BTC bottom-reversal cooldown active")
+        scanner_state.record_run(SCANNER_NAME, "ok", "cooldown")
+        return
+
+    try:
+        should_fire, debug = await evaluate_once()
+    except Exception as exc:
+        logger.error("BTC bottom-reversal scan failed: %s", exc)
+        scanner_state.record_run(SCANNER_NAME, "error", str(exc))
+        return
+
+    if should_fire:
+        logger.info("BTC bottom-reversal FIRE — %s", debug)
+        emitted = await _emit_signal(debug)
+        if emitted:
+            scanner_state.record_run(SCANNER_NAME, "fired")
+        else:
+            # Not recorded → no DB Post → cooldown won't arm. Surface this as
+            # an error so a misconfigured deploy is obvious, not a silent
+            # daily "fired" that never actually trades.
+            scanner_state.record_run(SCANNER_NAME, "error", "ingest_failed_or_key_missing")
+    else:
+        logger.info("BTC bottom-reversal no — %s", debug)
+        scanner_state.record_run(SCANNER_NAME, "ok")