feat: add daily budget, active window, trade snapshots, and price impact monitor

- New migrations for daily_budget, active_window, and bottrade snapshot
- Add trumpstruth scraper and price_impact_monitor service
- Expand bot_engine, hyperliquid, recovery, and tp_sl_monitor logic
- Update API/schemas/models for new features

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 <noreply@anthropic.com>

app/scrapers/truth_social.py

@@ -24,6 +24,11 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 ARCHIVE_URL = "https://ix.cnn.io/data/truth-social/truth_archive.json"
 
+# Liveness tracker — updated every successful poll (even when no new posts).
+# Read by /api/health to detect a dead scraper. None = never ran yet.
+last_successful_poll_at: Optional[datetime] = None
+last_poll_error: Optional[str] = None
+
 
 def _strip_html(text: str) -> str:
     text = re.sub(r"<[^>]+>", " ", text)
@@ -32,8 +37,17 @@ def _strip_html(text: str) -> str:
 
 
 def _parse_dt(iso: str) -> datetime:
+    """Parse Truth Social's ISO timestamp into a naive-UTC datetime.
+
+    IMPORTANT: must convert to UTC *before* stripping tzinfo. Otherwise an
+    input like '2026-04-24T15:07:48-04:00' would be stored as naive
+    15:07:48 and later mis-read as UTC — a silent 4-hour shift.
+    """
     try:
-        return datetime.fromisoformat(iso.replace("Z", "+00:00")).replace(tzinfo=None)
+        dt = datetime.fromisoformat(iso.replace("Z", "+00:00"))
+        if dt.tzinfo is not None:
+            dt = dt.astimezone(timezone.utc)
+        return dt.replace(tzinfo=None)
     except Exception:
         return datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
 
@@ -69,12 +83,12 @@ async def _process_entry(entry: dict, db: AsyncSession) -> Optional[Post]:
     analysis = await analyze_post(text)
 
     asset = analysis["asset"]
-    price_impact_m5 = price_impact_m15 = price_impact_m1h = price_at_post = None
+    # Only capture the price AT post time. The m5/m15/m1h peaks are filled in
+    # asynchronously by price_impact_monitor as the windows elapse — avoids
+    # recording 0.00% because future candles don't exist yet at entry time.
+    price_at_post = None
     if asset and analysis["relevant"]:
         price_at_post = price_store.get_price_at(asset, published_at)
-        price_impact_m5 = price_store.get_pct_change(asset, published_at, 5)
-        price_impact_m15 = price_store.get_pct_change(asset, published_at, 15)
-        price_impact_m1h = price_store.get_pct_change(asset, published_at, 60)
 
     post = Post(
         external_id=external_id,
@@ -89,24 +103,38 @@ async def _process_entry(entry: dict, db: AsyncSession) -> Optional[Post]:
         analysis_version=analysis.get("analysis_version"),
         relevant=analysis["relevant"],
         price_impact_asset=asset if analysis["relevant"] else None,
-        price_impact_m5=price_impact_m5,
-        price_impact_m15=price_impact_m15,
-        price_impact_m1h=price_impact_m1h,
+        price_impact_m5=None,    # filled by price_impact_monitor after 5 m
+        price_impact_m15=None,   # filled by price_impact_monitor after 15 m
+        price_impact_m1h=None,   # filled by price_impact_monitor after 1 h
         price_at_post=price_at_post,
     )
     db.add(post)
     await db.flush()
+
+    # Register with the live peak tracker so it starts watching immediately.
+    if asset and analysis["relevant"] and price_at_post:
+        from app.services.price_impact_monitor import register_post
+        register_post(
+            post_id=post.id,
+            asset=asset,
+            signal=analysis.get("signal"),
+            entry_price=price_at_post,
+            published_at=published_at,
+        )
+
     return post
 
 
 def _post_to_ws_payload(post: Post) -> dict:
     price_impact = None
     if post.price_impact_asset and post.price_at_post is not None:
+        # At broadcast time all windows are open — values are null until
+        # price_impact_monitor fills them in. Frontend treats null as "pending".
         price_impact = {
             "asset": post.price_impact_asset,
-            "m5": post.price_impact_m5 or 0.0,
-            "m15": post.price_impact_m15 or 0.0,
-            "m1h": post.price_impact_m1h or 0.0,
+            "m5": post.price_impact_m5,    # None = not yet measured
+            "m15": post.price_impact_m15,
+            "m1h": post.price_impact_m1h,
             "price_at_post": post.price_at_post,
         }
     return {
@@ -127,9 +155,11 @@ def _post_to_ws_payload(post: Post) -> dict:
 
 
 async def poll_truth_social(db_session_factory) -> None:
+    global last_successful_poll_at, last_poll_error
     logger.info("Polling CNN Truth Social archive...")
     entries = await _fetch_archive()
     if not entries:
+        last_poll_error = "fetch_archive returned empty"
         return
 
     # Only process the latest 50 entries each poll (archive has 30k+ posts)
@@ -159,8 +189,12 @@ async def poll_truth_social(db_session_factory) -> None:
                         logger.error("process_post failed for post %d: %s", post.id, exc)
             else:
                 logger.info("No new posts found.")
+            # Mark a successful poll cycle (separate from "found new posts").
+            last_successful_poll_at = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            last_poll_error = None
         except Exception as exc:
             logger.error("Transaction error: %s", exc)
+            last_poll_error = f"transaction_error: {exc}"
             await db.rollback()