From 326808040113877abeee1b5bde6b813abc99ddb6 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: k <hidek6663@gmail.com>
Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2026 19:33:24 +0800
Subject: [PATCH] done

---
 .env.example                   |  25 ++-
 app/api/dev.py                 |   4 +-
 app/api/posts.py               |  69 ++++++-
 app/api/subscribe.py           |  41 ++--
 app/api/trades.py              |   6 +-
 app/api/user.py                | 164 ++++++++++++++--
 app/config.py                  |  19 +-
 app/main.py                    |   5 +
 app/models.py                  |  21 +++
 app/schemas.py                 |  42 ++++-
 app/scrapers/truth_social.py   |   8 +-
 app/services/analysis.py       | 199 +++++++++++++++-----
 app/services/binance.py        |   4 +
 app/services/bot_engine.py     | 268 ++++++++++++++++++--------
 app/services/crypto.py         |  62 ++++++
 app/services/hyperliquid.py    | 334 ++++++++++++++++++++-------------
 app/services/recovery.py       |  89 +++++++++
 app/services/signed_request.py | 107 +++++++++++
 app/services/tp_sl_monitor.py  |  97 ++++++++++
 requirements.txt               |   1 +
 scripts/backfill_prefilter.py  |  72 +++++++
 scripts/backfill_signals.py    |  86 +++++++++
 scripts/reanalyze_sample.py    |  84 +++++++++
 scripts/test_hyperliquid.py    | 128 +++++++++++++
 simulate_trades.py             | 130 +++++++++++++
 test_hl_trade.py               |  69 +++++++
 26 files changed, 1816 insertions(+), 318 deletions(-)
 create mode 100644 app/services/crypto.py
 create mode 100644 app/services/recovery.py
 create mode 100644 app/services/signed_request.py
 create mode 100644 app/services/tp_sl_monitor.py
 create mode 100644 scripts/backfill_prefilter.py
 create mode 100644 scripts/backfill_signals.py
 create mode 100644 scripts/reanalyze_sample.py
 create mode 100644 scripts/test_hyperliquid.py
 create mode 100644 simulate_trades.py
 create mode 100644 test_hl_trade.py

diff --git a/.env.example b/.env.example
index 3043b8a..63aba3a 100644
--- a/.env.example
+++ b/.env.example
@@ -1,4 +1,23 @@
-DATABASE_URL=postgresql+asyncpg://postgres:password@localhost:5432/trumpsignal
-REDIS_URL=redis://localhost:6379
-ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...
+# Database
+DATABASE_URL=sqlite+aiosqlite:///./trumpsignal.db
+# For Postgres in production:
+# DATABASE_URL=postgresql+asyncpg://user:password@host:5432/trumpsignal
+
+# Frontend origin for CORS
 FRONTEND_URL=http://localhost:3001
+
+# AI provider (OpenAI-compatible). Default below is gptsapi.net relay for Claude.
+AI_API_KEY=
+AI_BASE_URL=https://api.gptsapi.net/v1
+AI_MODEL=claude-sonnet-4-6
+
+# Hyperliquid — leverage & network only. Per-user API keys are stored in DB.
+HL_LEVERAGE=3
+HL_MAINNET=true
+
+# development | production
+ENVIRONMENT=development
+
+# KEK for envelope-encrypting HL API keys in the DB.
+# Generate: `openssl rand -hex 32`. ROTATING THIS INVALIDATES ALL STORED KEYS.
+ENCRYPTION_KEY=
diff --git a/app/api/dev.py b/app/api/dev.py
index f035f41..f1609e0 100644
--- a/app/api/dev.py
+++ b/app/api/dev.py
@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ from datetime import datetime, timezone
 from fastapi import APIRouter, BackgroundTasks, Depends
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 from app.database import get_db, AsyncSessionLocal
-from app.models import Post
+from app.models import Post, iso_utc
 from app.ws.manager import manager
 import hashlib, time
 
@@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ async def insert_fake_post(
             "id": post.id,
             "text": post.text,
             "source": post.source,
-            "published_at": post.published_at.isoformat(),
+            "published_at": iso_utc(post.published_at),
             "sentiment": post.sentiment,
             "ai_confidence": post.ai_confidence,
             "relevant": post.relevant,
diff --git a/app/api/posts.py b/app/api/posts.py
index 9e97c75..f438841 100644
--- a/app/api/posts.py
+++ b/app/api/posts.py
@@ -6,35 +6,47 @@ from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.database import get_db
-from app.models import Post
+from app.models import Post, iso_utc
 from app.schemas import PriceImpact, TrumpPost
 
 router = APIRouter()
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
+def _direction_correct(signal: Optional[str], pct: Optional[float]) -> Optional[bool]:
+    if pct is None or signal is None:
+        return None
+    if signal == "buy":
+        return pct > 0
+    if signal in ("short", "sell"):
+        return pct < 0
+    return None  # hold has no direction
+
+
 def _post_to_schema(post: Post) -> TrumpPost:
     price_impact: Optional[PriceImpact] = None
-    if (
-        post.price_impact_asset
-        and post.price_at_post is not None
-    ):
+    if post.price_impact_asset and post.price_at_post is not None:
         price_impact = PriceImpact(
             asset=post.price_impact_asset,
             m5=post.price_impact_m5 or 0.0,
             m15=post.price_impact_m15 or 0.0,
             m1h=post.price_impact_m1h or 0.0,
             price_at_post=post.price_at_post,
+            correct_m5=_direction_correct(post.signal, post.price_impact_m5),
+            correct_m15=_direction_correct(post.signal, post.price_impact_m15),
+            correct_m1h=_direction_correct(post.signal, post.price_impact_m1h),
         )
     return TrumpPost(
         id=post.id,
         text=post.text,
         source=post.source,
-        published_at=post.published_at.isoformat(),
+        published_at=iso_utc(post.published_at),
         sentiment=post.sentiment,
         signal=post.signal,
         ai_confidence=post.ai_confidence,
         ai_reasoning=post.ai_reasoning,
+        prefilter_reason=post.prefilter_reason,
+        analysis_version=post.analysis_version,
         relevant=post.relevant,
         price_impact=price_impact,
     )
@@ -54,6 +66,51 @@ async def get_posts(
     return [_post_to_schema(p) for p in posts]
 
 
+@router.get("/signals/accuracy")
+async def signal_accuracy(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
+    """Aggregate accuracy of directional signals (buy/sell/short) against realised price moves."""
+    result = await db.execute(
+        select(Post).where(Post.signal.in_(["buy", "sell", "short"]))
+    )
+    posts = result.scalars().all()
+
+    def bucket():
+        return {"checked": 0, "correct": 0}
+
+    stats = {"m5": bucket(), "m15": bucket(), "m1h": bucket()}
+    by_signal: dict[str, dict] = {}
+
+    for p in posts:
+        sig = p.signal
+        if sig not in by_signal:
+            by_signal[sig] = {"m5": bucket(), "m15": bucket(), "m1h": bucket(), "count": 0}
+        by_signal[sig]["count"] += 1
+        for win, val in (("m5", p.price_impact_m5), ("m15", p.price_impact_m15), ("m1h", p.price_impact_m1h)):
+            ok = _direction_correct(sig, val)
+            if ok is None:
+                continue
+            stats[win]["checked"] += 1
+            stats[win]["correct"] += int(ok)
+            by_signal[sig][win]["checked"] += 1
+            by_signal[sig][win]["correct"] += int(ok)
+
+    def pct(b): return round(b["correct"] / b["checked"] * 100, 1) if b["checked"] else None
+
+    return {
+        "overall": {k: {**v, "accuracy_pct": pct(v)} for k, v in stats.items()},
+        "by_signal": {
+            s: {
+                "count": d["count"],
+                "m5": {**d["m5"], "accuracy_pct": pct(d["m5"])},
+                "m15": {**d["m15"], "accuracy_pct": pct(d["m15"])},
+                "m1h": {**d["m1h"], "accuracy_pct": pct(d["m1h"])},
+            }
+            for s, d in by_signal.items()
+        },
+        "total_directional_signals": len(posts),
+    }
+
+
 @router.get("/posts/{post_id}", response_model=TrumpPost)
 async def get_post(post_id: int, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
     result = await db.execute(select(Post).where(Post.id == post_id))
diff --git a/app/api/subscribe.py b/app/api/subscribe.py
index a562929..018b507 100644
--- a/app/api/subscribe.py
+++ b/app/api/subscribe.py
@@ -1,48 +1,33 @@
 import logging
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
 
-from eth_account import Account
-from eth_account.messages import encode_defunct
-from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends
 from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.database import get_db
 from app.models import Subscription
 from app.schemas import SubscribeRequest, SubscribeResponse
+from app.services.signed_request import verify_signed_request
 
 router = APIRouter()
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
-SIGN_MESSAGE = "Sign in to TrumpSignal"
-
-
-from typing import Optional
-
-def _recover_signer(signature: str) -> Optional[str]:
-    """Recover signer address from an EIP-191 personal_sign signature."""
-    try:
-        message = encode_defunct(text=SIGN_MESSAGE)
-        recovered = Account.recover_message(message, signature=signature)
-        return recovered.lower()
-    except Exception as exc:
-        logger.warning("Signature recovery failed: %s", exc)
-        return None
+ACTION_SUBSCRIBE = "subscribe"
 
 
 @router.post("/subscribe", response_model=SubscribeResponse)
 async def subscribe(body: SubscribeRequest, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
     wallet = body.wallet.lower().strip()
 
-    # Verify EIP-191 signature
-    recovered = _recover_signer(body.signature)
-    if recovered is None or recovered != wallet:
-        raise HTTPException(
-            status_code=401,
-            detail="Signature verification failed: recovered address does not match wallet",
-        )
+    verify_signed_request(
+        action=ACTION_SUBSCRIBE,
+        wallet=wallet,
+        timestamp_ms=body.timestamp,
+        signature=body.signature,
+        body=None,
+    )
 
-    # Upsert subscription
     result = await db.execute(
         select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet)
     )
@@ -50,11 +35,7 @@ async def subscribe(body: SubscribeRequest, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
     now = datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
 
     if sub is None:
-        sub = Subscription(
-            wallet_address=wallet,
-            active=True,
-            subscribed_at=now,
-        )
+        sub = Subscription(wallet_address=wallet, active=True, subscribed_at=now)
         db.add(sub)
     else:
         sub.active = True
diff --git a/app/api/trades.py b/app/api/trades.py
index c58b1e8..63e9f28 100644
--- a/app/api/trades.py
+++ b/app/api/trades.py
@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.database import get_db
-from app.models import BotTrade
+from app.models import BotTrade, iso_utc
 from app.schemas import BotTrade as BotTradeSchema
 
 router = APIRouter()
@@ -23,8 +23,8 @@ def _trade_to_schema(trade: BotTrade) -> BotTradeSchema:
         pnl_usd=trade.pnl_usd or 0.0,
         hold_seconds=trade.hold_seconds or 0,
         trigger_post_id=trade.trigger_post_id or 0,
-        opened_at=trade.opened_at.isoformat(),
-        closed_at=trade.closed_at.isoformat() if trade.closed_at else "",
+        opened_at=iso_utc(trade.opened_at) or "",
+        closed_at=iso_utc(trade.closed_at) or "",
     )
 
 
diff --git a/app/api/user.py b/app/api/user.py
index dee7b4f..30fc300 100644
--- a/app/api/user.py
+++ b/app/api/user.py
@@ -1,16 +1,30 @@
 import logging
 
-from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, Header, HTTPException, Query
 from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
 from app.database import get_db
-from app.models import BotTrade, Subscription
-from app.schemas import BotTrade as BotTradeSchema, UserResponse
+from app.models import BotTrade, Subscription, iso_utc
+from app.schemas import (
+    BotTrade as BotTradeSchema,
+    UserResponse,
+    UserSettings,
+    SetApiKeyRequest,
+    SetApiKeyResponse,
+    SetSettingsRequest,
+)
+from app.services.crypto import encrypt_api_key
+from app.services.signed_request import verify_signed_request
 
 router = APIRouter()
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
+# Action names — must match frontend exactly (used in the signed message)
+ACTION_SET_API_KEY = "set_hl_api_key"
+ACTION_SET_SETTINGS = "set_settings"
+ACTION_VIEW_USER = "view_user"
+
 
 def _trade_to_schema(trade: BotTrade) -> BotTradeSchema:
     return BotTradeSchema(
@@ -22,23 +36,89 @@ def _trade_to_schema(trade: BotTrade) -> BotTradeSchema:
         pnl_usd=trade.pnl_usd or 0.0,
         hold_seconds=trade.hold_seconds or 0,
         trigger_post_id=trade.trigger_post_id or 0,
-        opened_at=trade.opened_at.isoformat(),
-        closed_at=trade.closed_at.isoformat() if trade.closed_at else "",
+        opened_at=iso_utc(trade.opened_at) or "",
+        closed_at=iso_utc(trade.closed_at) or "",
     )
 
 
+@router.put("/user/{wallet}/hl-api-key", response_model=SetApiKeyResponse)
+async def set_hl_api_key(
+    wallet: str,
+    body: SetApiKeyRequest,
+    db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
+):
+    wallet = wallet.lower().strip()
+    if wallet != body.wallet.lower().strip():
+        raise HTTPException(400, "Wallet mismatch between path and body")
+
+    api_key = body.api_key.strip()
+    if not api_key.startswith("0x") or len(api_key) != 66:
+        raise HTTPException(422, "Invalid API key format — must be a 0x-prefixed 64-char hex string")
+
+    # Signature binds to the full payload (including api_key) so a leaked sig
+    # can't be reused to change the key.
+    verify_signed_request(
+        action=ACTION_SET_API_KEY,
+        wallet=wallet,
+        timestamp_ms=body.timestamp,
+        signature=body.signature,
+        body={"api_key": api_key},
+    )
+
+    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet))
+    sub = result.scalar_one_or_none()
+    if sub is None:
+        raise HTTPException(404, "Wallet not subscribed. Subscribe first.")
+
+    sub.hl_api_key = encrypt_api_key(api_key)
+    await db.commit()
+
+    masked = f"...{api_key[-6:]}"
+    logger.info("HL API key updated for wallet %s (masked: %s)", wallet, masked)
+    return SetApiKeyResponse(status="ok", masked_key=masked)
+
+
+@router.get("/user/{wallet}/public")
+async def get_user_public(wallet: str, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
+    """No-auth endpoint returning only boolean state. Safe to call on every
+    page load to decide whether to show the Subscribe/API-key UI."""
+    wallet = wallet.lower().strip()
+    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet))
+    sub = result.scalar_one_or_none()
+    if sub is None:
+        return {"wallet_address": wallet, "active": False, "hl_api_key_set": False}
+    return {
+        "wallet_address": wallet,
+        "active": sub.active,
+        "hl_api_key_set": bool(sub.hl_api_key),
+    }
+
+
 @router.get("/user/{wallet}", response_model=UserResponse)
-async def get_user(wallet: str, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
+async def get_user(
+    wallet: str,
+    ts: int = Query(..., description="Signed timestamp (ms)"),
+    sig: str = Query(..., description="EIP-191 signature"),
+    db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
+):
     wallet = wallet.lower().strip()
 
-    result = await db.execute(
-        select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet)
+    # Require a fresh signed timestamp from the owner — stops wallet-enumeration
+    # and trade-history leakage. Frontend re-signs ~every 5 min via sessionStorage.
+    verify_signed_request(
+        action=ACTION_VIEW_USER,
+        wallet=wallet,
+        timestamp_ms=ts,
+        signature=sig,
+        body=None,
+        allow_replay=True,  # idempotent GET — allow sessionStorage caching for UX
     )
+
+    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet))
     sub = result.scalar_one_or_none()
     if sub is None:
-        raise HTTPException(status_code=404, detail="Wallet not found")
+        raise HTTPException(404, "Wallet not found")
 
-    # Personal trades (all — open and closed)
     trades_result = await db.execute(
         select(BotTrade)
         .where(BotTrade.wallet_address == wallet)
@@ -47,13 +127,73 @@ async def get_user(wallet: str, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
     )
     trades = trades_result.scalars().all()
 
-    # Mask hl_api_key: show only last 4 chars if set
     hl_api_key_set = bool(sub.hl_api_key)
+    # Never return the encrypted blob or any decrypted key. The masked hint
+    # shown to the user is derived lazily and only from the last 6 chars of
+    # the stored blob's sha-hash, not the plaintext.
+    if hl_api_key_set:
+        import hashlib
+        masked = "..." + hashlib.sha256(sub.hl_api_key.encode()).hexdigest()[-6:]
+    else:
+        masked = None
 
     return UserResponse(
         wallet_address=sub.wallet_address,
         active=sub.active,
-        subscribed_at=sub.subscribed_at.isoformat() if sub.subscribed_at else None,
+        subscribed_at=iso_utc(sub.subscribed_at),
         hl_api_key_set=hl_api_key_set,
+        hl_api_key_masked=masked,
         trades=[_trade_to_schema(t) for t in trades],
+        settings=UserSettings(
+            leverage=sub.leverage,
+            position_size_usd=sub.position_size_usd,
+            take_profit_pct=sub.take_profit_pct,
+            stop_loss_pct=sub.stop_loss_pct,
+            min_confidence=sub.min_confidence,
+        ),
     )
+
+
+@router.put("/user/{wallet}/settings", response_model=UserSettings)
+async def set_user_settings(
+    wallet: str,
+    body: SetSettingsRequest,
+    db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db),
+):
+    wallet = wallet.lower().strip()
+    if wallet != body.wallet.lower().strip():
+        raise HTTPException(400, "Wallet mismatch")
+
+    s = body.settings
+    if not (1 <= s.leverage <= 50):
+        raise HTTPException(422, "leverage must be 1–50")
+    if not (5 <= s.position_size_usd <= 10000):
+        raise HTTPException(422, "position_size_usd must be $5–$10,000")
+    if s.take_profit_pct is not None and not (0.1 <= s.take_profit_pct <= 50):
+        raise HTTPException(422, "take_profit_pct must be 0.1–50")
+    if s.stop_loss_pct is not None and not (0.1 <= s.stop_loss_pct <= 50):
+        raise HTTPException(422, "stop_loss_pct must be 0.1–50")
+    if not (0 <= s.min_confidence <= 100):
+        raise HTTPException(422, "min_confidence must be 0–100")
+
+    verify_signed_request(
+        action=ACTION_SET_SETTINGS,
+        wallet=wallet,
+        timestamp_ms=body.timestamp,
+        signature=body.signature,
+        body=s.model_dump(),
+    )
+
+    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet))
+    sub = result.scalar_one_or_none()
+    if sub is None:
+        raise HTTPException(404, "Wallet not subscribed")
+
+    sub.leverage = s.leverage
+    sub.position_size_usd = s.position_size_usd
+    sub.take_profit_pct = s.take_profit_pct
+    sub.stop_loss_pct = s.stop_loss_pct
+    sub.min_confidence = s.min_confidence
+    await db.commit()
+    logger.info("Settings updated for %s: %s", wallet, s.model_dump())
+    return s
diff --git a/app/config.py b/app/config.py
index cf73802..a1bca4c 100644
--- a/app/config.py
+++ b/app/config.py
@@ -3,8 +3,6 @@ from pydantic_settings import BaseSettings
 
 class Settings(BaseSettings):
     database_url: str
-    redis_url: str = "redis://localhost:6379"
-    anthropic_api_key: str
     frontend_url: str = "http://localhost:3001"
     truth_social_rss: str = "https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump.rss"
     truth_social_poll_seconds: int = 15
@@ -14,6 +12,23 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     )
     binance_rest_url: str = "https://data-api.binance.vision"
     environment: str = "development"
+    ai_api_key: str = ""
+    ai_base_url: str = "https://api.gptsapi.net/v1"
+    ai_model: str = "claude-haiku-4-5-20251001"
+
+    # Hyperliquid — API wallet private key (NOT your MetaMask key)
+    # Created at https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/API and authorized by MetaMask
+    hl_api_private_key: str = ""
+    # Your MetaMask address — this is the actual account holding USDC/positions
+    hl_account_address: str = ""
+    # BTC perp leverage (1–50x isolated margin)
+    hl_leverage: int = 3
+    # Trade mainnet (True) or testnet (False)
+    hl_mainnet: bool = True
+
+    # KEK for envelope-encrypting HL API keys at rest.
+    # Generate with: openssl rand -hex 32
+    encryption_key: str = ""
 
     model_config = {"env_file": ".env", "env_file_encoding": "utf-8"}
 
diff --git a/app/main.py b/app/main.py
index cbb757e..8347735 100644
--- a/app/main.py
+++ b/app/main.py
@@ -44,6 +44,11 @@ async def lifespan(app: FastAPI):
     # 2. Backfill historical posts on startup (fast, no Claude API call)
     asyncio.create_task(backfill_history(AsyncSessionLocal, limit=500))
 
+    # 2b. Rehydrate TP/SL + max-hold backstops for any positions still open in DB.
+    # Critical: without this, a redeploy/crash silently drops protection on live trades.
+    from app.services.recovery import rehydrate_open_trades
+    asyncio.create_task(rehydrate_open_trades())
+
     # 3. Start Binance WebSocket background task
     _binance_task = asyncio.create_task(run_binance_ws(), name="binance_ws")
     logger.info("Binance WebSocket task started.")
diff --git a/app/models.py b/app/models.py
index 584f8e4..715e67f 100644
--- a/app/models.py
+++ b/app/models.py
@@ -18,9 +18,21 @@ from app.database import Base
 
 
 def utcnow() -> datetime:
+    """Naive UTC datetime. All datetimes in this codebase are stored as naive-UTC."""
     return datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
 
 
+def iso_utc(dt: Optional[datetime]) -> Optional[str]:
+    """Serialize a naive-UTC datetime to an explicit ISO-8601 UTC string (suffix 'Z').
+    If dt already carries tzinfo, convert to UTC first. Returns None if dt is None."""
+    if dt is None:
+        return None
+    if dt.tzinfo is not None:
+        dt = dt.astimezone(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
+    # Drop microseconds past millisecond for compactness; always end in Z
+    return dt.isoformat(timespec="milliseconds") + "Z"
+
+
 class Post(Base):
     __tablename__ = "posts"
 
@@ -39,6 +51,8 @@ class Post(Base):
     price_at_post: Mapped[Optional[float]] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=True)
     signal: Mapped[Optional[str]] = mapped_column(String(8), nullable=True)
     ai_reasoning: Mapped[Optional[str]] = mapped_column(Text, nullable=True)
+    prefilter_reason: Mapped[Optional[str]] = mapped_column(String(32), nullable=True)
+    analysis_version: Mapped[Optional[str]] = mapped_column(String(16), nullable=True)
     created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime, nullable=False, default=utcnow)
 
     trades: Mapped[List["BotTrade"]] = relationship("BotTrade", back_populates="trigger_post")
@@ -89,3 +103,10 @@ class Subscription(Base):
     active: Mapped[bool] = mapped_column(Boolean, nullable=False, default=False)
     subscribed_at: Mapped[Optional[datetime]] = mapped_column(DateTime, nullable=True)
     created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime, nullable=False, default=utcnow)
+
+    # Per-user trading config (null → use platform defaults)
+    leverage: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, nullable=False, default=3)
+    position_size_usd: Mapped[float] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=False, default=20.0)
+    take_profit_pct: Mapped[Optional[float]] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=True)   # e.g. 2.0 = close at +2%
+    stop_loss_pct: Mapped[Optional[float]] = mapped_column(Float, nullable=True)     # e.g. 1.5 = close at -1.5%
+    min_confidence: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(Integer, nullable=False, default=80)
diff --git a/app/schemas.py b/app/schemas.py
index c428877..7055fb4 100644
--- a/app/schemas.py
+++ b/app/schemas.py
@@ -9,6 +9,10 @@ class PriceImpact(BaseModel):
     m15: float
     m1h: float
     price_at_post: float
+    # None = outcome window not yet reached or no price data; True/False = signal direction matched actual move
+    correct_m5: Optional[bool] = None
+    correct_m15: Optional[bool] = None
+    correct_m1h: Optional[bool] = None
 
 
 class TrumpPost(BaseModel):
@@ -20,6 +24,8 @@ class TrumpPost(BaseModel):
     signal: Optional[str] = None       # buy | sell | short | hold
     ai_confidence: int
     ai_reasoning: Optional[str] = None
+    prefilter_reason: Optional[str] = None   # rt_only | url_only | empty | parse_error | api_error | null
+    analysis_version: Optional[str] = None
     relevant: bool
     price_impact: Optional[PriceImpact] = None
 
@@ -59,19 +65,53 @@ class BotPerformance(BaseModel):
     max_drawdown_pct: float
 
 
-class SubscribeRequest(BaseModel):
+class SignedEnvelope(BaseModel):
+    """Every write request carries this envelope.
+
+    Client builds a canonical message (see app.services.signed_request.build_message)
+    and signs it via EIP-191 personal_sign. Server re-builds the message from
+    {action, wallet, timestamp, sha256(body)} and recovers the signer.
+    """
     wallet: str
+    timestamp: int       # milliseconds since epoch
     signature: str
 
 
+class SubscribeRequest(SignedEnvelope):
+    pass
+
+
 class SubscribeResponse(BaseModel):
     status: str
     wallet: str
 
 
+class SetApiKeyRequest(SignedEnvelope):
+    api_key: str     # Hyperliquid API wallet private key (0x...)
+
+
+class SetApiKeyResponse(BaseModel):
+    status: str
+    masked_key: str  # last 6 chars only, e.g. "...a1b2c3"
+
+
+class UserSettings(BaseModel):
+    leverage: int
+    position_size_usd: float
+    take_profit_pct: Optional[float] = None
+    stop_loss_pct: Optional[float] = None
+    min_confidence: int
+
+
+class SetSettingsRequest(SignedEnvelope):
+    settings: UserSettings
+
+
 class UserResponse(BaseModel):
     wallet_address: str
     active: bool
     subscribed_at: Optional[str] = None
     hl_api_key_set: bool
+    hl_api_key_masked: Optional[str] = None
     trades: list[BotTrade]
+    settings: UserSettings
diff --git a/app/scrapers/truth_social.py b/app/scrapers/truth_social.py
index dd0a6a6..380dfed 100644
--- a/app/scrapers/truth_social.py
+++ b/app/scrapers/truth_social.py
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ import httpx
 from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
 
-from app.models import Post
+from app.models import Post, iso_utc
 from app.services.analysis import analyze_post
 from app.services.price_store import price_store
 from app.ws.manager import manager
@@ -85,6 +85,8 @@ async def _process_entry(entry: dict, db: AsyncSession) -> Optional[Post]:
         signal=analysis.get("signal"),
         ai_confidence=analysis["confidence"],
         ai_reasoning=analysis.get("reasoning"),
+        prefilter_reason=analysis.get("prefilter_reason"),
+        analysis_version=analysis.get("analysis_version"),
         relevant=analysis["relevant"],
         price_impact_asset=asset if analysis["relevant"] else None,
         price_impact_m5=price_impact_m5,
@@ -113,9 +115,11 @@ def _post_to_ws_payload(post: Post) -> dict:
             "id": post.id,
             "text": post.text,
             "source": post.source,
-            "published_at": post.published_at.isoformat(),
+            "published_at": iso_utc(post.published_at),
             "sentiment": post.sentiment,
+            "signal": post.signal,
             "ai_confidence": post.ai_confidence,
+            "ai_reasoning": post.ai_reasoning,
             "relevant": post.relevant,
             "price_impact": price_impact,
         },
diff --git a/app/services/analysis.py b/app/services/analysis.py
index 44b3bca..211123e 100644
--- a/app/services/analysis.py
+++ b/app/services/analysis.py
@@ -1,46 +1,134 @@
 import json
 import logging
+from typing import Optional
 
-import anthropic
-
+from openai import AsyncOpenAI
 from app.config import settings
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
-from typing import Optional
-_client: Optional[anthropic.AsyncAnthropic] = None
+_client: Optional[AsyncOpenAI] = None
 
-SYSTEM_PROMPT = (
-    "You are a crypto trading signal analyst. Analyze Donald Trump's social media posts "
-    "and determine their likely impact on cryptocurrency markets. "
-    "Return only valid JSON with no additional text or markdown."
-)
+SYSTEM_PROMPT = """You are an expert macro trader analyzing Trump's Truth Social posts for real-time crypto trading signals.
 
-USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = """Analyze this Trump post for cryptocurrency trading signals.
+CORE ASSUMPTION: Treat every post as BREAKING NEWS. Do not assume anything is already priced in — you have no knowledge of what happened before or after this post. Your job is to evaluate the post content only.
 
-Post: {text}
+=== BULLISH TRANSMISSION CHAINS (BTC/ETH go UP) ===
+• Ceasefire / peace deal / de-escalation / conflict ending
+  → war-risk premium unwinds → oil stabilizes → USD softens → risk-on → BTC/ETH rally
+• Pro-crypto executive action / legislation / reserve
+  → regulatory tailwind + direct demand → BTC up immediately
+• Dollar weakness (deficit spending, tariff concessions, Fed rate cut signals)
+  → hard asset bid → BTC as digital gold
+• Trade deal / tariff reduction announcement
+  → global growth outlook improves → risk appetite rises → BTC/ETH up
+• Strait of Hormuz open / oil supply stable
+  → energy prices moderate → inflation fears drop → risk-on
 
-Respond with JSON only:
+=== BEARISH TRANSMISSION CHAINS (BTC/ETH go DOWN) ===
+• War escalation / military strikes / ceasefire violation
+  → risk-off panic → crypto liquidations → sharp BTC/ETH drop
+• Strait of Hormuz threatened / blocked / mined
+  → oil price spike → inflation surge → Fed tightening fears → risk-off
+• SEC/DOJ crypto enforcement / new crypto regulation
+  → direct selling pressure → BTC/ETH down
+• Tariff escalation / new sanctions / trade war
+  → growth fears + USD safe-haven bid → crypto outflows
+• New military front / ally breakdown / nuclear threat
+  → extreme risk-off → everything sells
+
+=== WHAT IS NOT RELEVANT ===
+• Retweets with only a URL and no added comment (RT: https://...)
+• Media/political attacks with no policy content
+• Personal endorsements, rallies, awards, domestic court cases
+• Pure domestic politics (abortion, immigration) with no macro angle
+• UFO files, sports, entertainment, holidays
+
+=== SIGNAL TAXONOMY (CRITICAL — do not conflate) ===
+Each signal is a distinct trading action. Choose exactly one.
+
+• "buy"  — OPEN A NEW LONG. Use when the post is a FRESH bullish catalyst that
+           is likely to push price UP in the next 5–60 minutes. Example:
+           "Confirmed ceasefire with Iran", "Crypto reserve executive order signed."
+           → Expected move: price rises. Directional accuracy = price > entry.
+
+• "sell" — CLOSE AN EXISTING LONG / DE-RISK. Use when the post WEAKENS a prior
+           bullish thesis but is NOT strong enough to justify an active short.
+           Think: "take profit / step aside." Examples:
+           "Ceasefire talks delayed", "Hinting at new tariffs (vague)",
+           "Crypto-friendly nominee withdrawn." Ambiguous bearish.
+           → Use ONLY if you would exit longs but not open shorts.
+           → Directional accuracy = price < entry (same as short, but lower conviction).
+
+• "short"— OPEN A NEW SHORT. Use only for a FRESH bearish catalyst strong enough
+           that you would actively bet on price falling. Examples:
+           "Military strike on Iran launched", "Strait of Hormuz mined",
+           "SEC lawsuit against major exchange announced."
+           → Expected move: price drops hard. Reserve for high-conviction bearish.
+
+• "hold" — NO TRADE. Post is irrelevant, or macro-relevant but ambiguous in
+           direction, or confidence too low to act. DEFAULT when in doubt.
+
+Decision tree:
+  1. Is there a concrete macro/crypto event? NO → hold.
+  2. Is the direction clear? NO → hold.
+  3. BULLISH: confidence ≥ 60 → buy. Else → hold.
+  4. BEARISH: strong/explicit (war, ban, sanctions, enforcement) → short.
+              weak/vague/partial walkback of bullish → sell.
+              otherwise → hold.
+
+NEVER use "sell" for a strong bearish event — that is "short".
+NEVER use "short" for a vague/ambiguous negative — that is "sell" or "hold".
+
+=== CONFIDENCE CALIBRATION ===
+80-100: Explicit crypto/monetary policy action; confirmed ceasefire with named parties; Strait of Hormuz status confirmed; named trade deal signed
+60-79: Clear new geopolitical event with specific details (named countries, named actions); direct risk-on/off chain
+40-59: Probable macro relevance but vague details or highly indirect effect
+20-39: Possible relevance, highly uncertain
+0-19: Mark as not relevant instead
+
+=== SIGNAL CALIBRATION (critical — read before deciding) ===
+DEFAULT is HOLD. Only 5–10% of posts should receive buy or short.
+The overwhelming majority of Trump's posts are domestic politics, rhetoric, personal attacks, or vague boasts — these are HOLD.
+
+Use "buy" only when ALL of the following are true:
+  1. The event is CONCRETE (named countries, named action, specific policy)
+  2. The macro transmission chain to BTC/ETH is DIRECT and SHORT (< 2 steps)
+  3. Your confidence is ≥ 75
+
+Use "short" only when ALL of the following are true:
+  1. A hard bearish event is CONFIRMED (not speculated): verified military strike, enacted tariff, filed lawsuit
+  2. The transmission chain to BTC/ETH down is DIRECT
+  3. Your confidence is ≥ 80
+
+Use "sell" only for mild walkback of a prior bullish event — NOT for strong bearish news.
+
+When in doubt between buy and hold → choose HOLD.
+When in doubt between short and sell → choose SELL or HOLD, not short.
+
+Return ONLY valid JSON. No markdown.
+
+Return ONLY valid JSON. No markdown."""
+
+USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE = """Analyze this Trump Truth Social post for BTC/ETH trading signals.
+Treat it as breaking news — evaluate only what is written.
+
+POST TEXT:
+{text}
+
+Respond with JSON:
 {{
-  "relevant": <true if this post could affect crypto/macro markets>,
-  "asset": "BTC" | "ETH" | null,
+  "relevant": <true if post contains ANY concrete macro/geopolitical/crypto information>,
+  "asset": "BTC" | "ETH" | "BOTH" | null,
   "sentiment": "bullish" | "bearish" | "neutral",
   "signal": "buy" | "sell" | "short" | "hold",
   "confidence": <0-100>,
-  "reasoning": "<1-2 sentences explaining the signal and why>"
+  "reasoning": "<What specific event is described → macro transmission chain → expected market direction → WHY this signal and NOT the adjacent one (e.g. 'short not sell because strike is confirmed', 'sell not short because only a walkback of prior bullish headline')>"
 }}
 
-Signal rules:
-- "buy": bullish crypto/macro signal → expect price rise → go long
-- "sell": bearish signal for existing longs → exit position
-- "short": strong bearish signal → expect price drop → go short
-- "hold": relevant but unclear direction, or neutral macro
+If post is only a URL, only a retweet link, or purely personal/domestic with zero macro angle: set relevant=false, signal=hold, confidence=0."""
 
-Bullish examples: pro-crypto policy, BTC reserve, anti-regulation, dollar weakness, tariff deal, market optimism
-Bearish examples: SEC crackdowns, war escalation, economic sanctions, crypto ban threats, crisis
-Not relevant: personal attacks, sports, endorsements, unrelated politics
-
-Be strict on relevance — most posts are NOT relevant to crypto."""
+ANALYSIS_VERSION = "v4-selective"
 
 _FALLBACK = {
     "relevant": False,
@@ -49,36 +137,50 @@ _FALLBACK = {
     "signal": "hold",
     "confidence": 0,
     "reasoning": "",
+    "prefilter_reason": None,
+    "analysis_version": ANALYSIS_VERSION,
 }
 
 
-def _get_client() -> anthropic.AsyncAnthropic:
+def _fallback(prefilter: Optional[str] = None, reasoning: str = "") -> dict:
+    out = dict(_FALLBACK)
+    out["prefilter_reason"] = prefilter
+    out["reasoning"] = reasoning
+    return out
+
+
+def _get_client() -> AsyncOpenAI:
     global _client
     if _client is None:
-        _client = anthropic.AsyncAnthropic(api_key=settings.anthropic_api_key)
+        _client = AsyncOpenAI(
+            api_key=settings.ai_api_key,
+            base_url=settings.ai_base_url,
+        )
     return _client
 
 
 async def analyze_post(text: str) -> dict:
-    """Run Claude signal analysis on a Trump post.
+    # Fast pre-filter: pure RT/URL with no content
+    stripped = text.strip()
+    if stripped.startswith("RT: https://") and len(stripped) < 60:
+        return _fallback("rt_only", "Pre-filtered: retweet with no added commentary.")
+    if stripped.startswith("https://") and " " not in stripped:
+        return _fallback("url_only", "Pre-filtered: bare URL with no text content.")
+    if not stripped:
+        return _fallback("empty", "Pre-filtered: empty post body.")
 
-    Returns dict with keys: relevant, asset, sentiment, signal, confidence, reasoning.
-    Falls back to neutral hold on any error.
-    """
     try:
         client = _get_client()
-        message = await client.messages.create(
-            model="claude-haiku-4-5-20251001",
-            max_tokens=300,
-            system=SYSTEM_PROMPT,
+        response = await client.chat.completions.create(
+            model=settings.ai_model,
+            max_tokens=450,
+            temperature=0.1,
             messages=[
-                {
-                    "role": "user",
-                    "content": USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format(text=text[:2000]),
-                }
+                {"role": "system", "content": SYSTEM_PROMPT},
+                {"role": "user", "content": USER_PROMPT_TEMPLATE.format(text=text[:2000])},
             ],
         )
-        raw = message.content[0].text.strip()
+        raw = response.choices[0].message.content.strip()
 
         if raw.startswith("```"):
             lines = raw.split("\n")
@@ -100,10 +202,12 @@ async def analyze_post(text: str) -> dict:
         relevant = bool(result.get("relevant", False))
 
         asset = result.get("asset")
+        if asset == "BOTH":
+            asset = "BTC"
         if asset not in ("BTC", "ETH", None):
             asset = None
 
-        reasoning = str(result.get("reasoning", ""))[:500]
+        reasoning = str(result.get("reasoning", ""))[:600]
 
         return {
             "relevant": relevant,
@@ -112,14 +216,13 @@ async def analyze_post(text: str) -> dict:
             "signal": signal,
             "confidence": confidence,
             "reasoning": reasoning,
+            "prefilter_reason": None,
+            "analysis_version": ANALYSIS_VERSION,
         }
 
-    except anthropic.APIError as exc:
-        logger.error("Anthropic API error: %s", exc)
-        return dict(_FALLBACK)
     except json.JSONDecodeError as exc:
-        logger.error("Failed to parse Claude JSON response: %s", exc)
-        return dict(_FALLBACK)
+        logger.error("Failed to parse AI JSON: %s", exc)
+        return _fallback("parse_error", f"AI returned unparseable JSON: {exc}")
     except Exception as exc:
-        logger.error("Unexpected error in analyze_post: %s", exc)
-        return dict(_FALLBACK)
+        logger.error("analyze_post error: %s", exc)
+        return _fallback("api_error", f"AI API error: {exc}")
diff --git a/app/services/binance.py b/app/services/binance.py
index 7869b95..dd9d209 100644
--- a/app/services/binance.py
+++ b/app/services/binance.py
@@ -41,6 +41,10 @@ async def _process_message(raw: str):
         }
         price_store.update(asset, candle)
 
+        # TP/SL check on every tick (cheap no-op when no trades are being watched)
+        from app.services.tp_sl_monitor import on_price_tick
+        on_price_tick(asset, candle["close"])
+
         # Broadcast live price tick
         await manager.broadcast({
             "type": "price",
diff --git a/app/services/bot_engine.py b/app/services/bot_engine.py
index 8ede288..3076d1c 100644
--- a/app/services/bot_engine.py
+++ b/app/services/bot_engine.py
@@ -7,125 +7,241 @@ Iterates all active subscribers and executes trades on their behalf.
 import asyncio
 import logging
 from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from typing import Dict
+
+from sqlalchemy import select, update
 from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
-from sqlalchemy import select
-from app.models import Post, BotTrade, Subscription
+
+from app.config import settings
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import BotTrade, Post, Subscription
+from app.services.crypto import decrypt_api_key
 from app.services.hyperliquid import HyperliquidTrader
-from app.services.price_store import price_store
+from app.services.price_store import price_store  # noqa: F401 (used elsewhere)
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
-# Thresholds
-MIN_CONFIDENCE = 70       # ai_confidence must be >= this to trade
-POSITION_SIZE_USD = 100   # per-trade size in USD (fixed for MVP)
-MAX_HOLD_SECONDS = 3600   # force-close after 1 hour
+# Platform-wide thresholds (per-user values in Subscription override where applicable)
+GLOBAL_MIN_CONFIDENCE = 80       # hard floor — user min_confidence must be >= this
+MAX_HOLD_SECONDS = 3600          # force-close after 1 hour (shared across users)
+
+
+# Per-trade locks prevent TP/SL and max-hold tasks from both calling close_and_finalize
+# simultaneously on the same trade. Lock is process-local — with the atomic
+# conditional UPDATE below, multi-process is still safe (losers become no-ops).
+_close_locks: Dict[int, asyncio.Lock] = {}
+
+
+def _lock_for(trade_id: int) -> asyncio.Lock:
+    lock = _close_locks.get(trade_id)
+    if lock is None:
+        lock = asyncio.Lock()
+        _close_locks[trade_id] = lock
+    return lock
 
 
 async def process_post(post: Post, db: AsyncSession) -> None:
     """
     Entry point called by the scraper after a new post is saved.
-    Skips non-relevant or low-confidence posts.
+    `db` is used only to fetch the subscriber list; each subscriber gets its own session.
     """
     if not post.relevant:
         return
-    if (post.ai_confidence or 0) < MIN_CONFIDENCE:
-        logger.info("Post %d skipped: confidence %d < %d", post.id, post.ai_confidence, MIN_CONFIDENCE)
+    if (post.ai_confidence or 0) < GLOBAL_MIN_CONFIDENCE:
+        logger.info("Post %d skipped: confidence %d < %d", post.id, post.ai_confidence, GLOBAL_MIN_CONFIDENCE)
         return
-    if post.sentiment == 'neutral':
+    if post.signal not in ('buy', 'short'):
+        logger.info("Post %d skipped: signal=%s is not actionable", post.id, post.signal)
         return
 
     asset = post.price_impact_asset or 'BTC'
-    side = 'long' if post.sentiment == 'bullish' else 'short'
+    side = 'long' if post.signal == 'buy' else 'short'
 
     logger.info("Signal: post=%d asset=%s side=%s confidence=%d", post.id, asset, side, post.ai_confidence)
 
-    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.active == True))
+    result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.active == True))  # noqa: E712
     subscribers = result.scalars().all()
 
     if not subscribers:
         logger.info("No active subscribers, skipping trade execution")
         return
 
-    tasks = [_execute_for_subscriber(sub, post, asset, side, db) for sub in subscribers]
+    # Snapshot primitive fields so tasks don't share the ORM object / session.
+    subs_snapshot = [
+        dict(
+            wallet=s.wallet_address,
+            hl_api_key=s.hl_api_key,
+            leverage=s.leverage,
+            position_size_usd=s.position_size_usd,
+            take_profit_pct=s.take_profit_pct,
+            stop_loss_pct=s.stop_loss_pct,
+            min_confidence=s.min_confidence,
+        )
+        for s in subscribers
+    ]
+    post_id = post.id
+    post_confidence = post.ai_confidence or 0
+
+    tasks = [
+        _execute_for_subscriber(sub, post_id, post_confidence, asset, side)
+        for sub in subs_snapshot
+    ]
     await asyncio.gather(*tasks, return_exceptions=True)
 
 
 async def _execute_for_subscriber(
-    sub: Subscription,
-    post: Post,
+    sub: dict,
+    post_id: int,
+    post_confidence: int,
     asset: str,
     side: str,
-    db: AsyncSession,
 ) -> None:
-    if not sub.hl_api_key:
-        logger.warning("Subscriber %s has no HL API key, skipping", sub.wallet_address)
+    wallet = sub["wallet"]
+    if not sub["hl_api_key"]:
+        logger.warning("Subscriber %s has no HL API key, skipping", wallet)
+        return
+    if post_confidence < sub["min_confidence"]:
+        logger.info("Sub %s filters out post %d: conf %d < user min %d",
+                    wallet, post_id, post_confidence, sub["min_confidence"])
         return
 
     try:
-        trader = HyperliquidTrader(sub.hl_api_key)
+        api_key = decrypt_api_key(sub["hl_api_key"])
+    except Exception as exc:
+        logger.error("Cannot decrypt key for %s: %s", wallet, exc)
+        return
 
-        # Check for existing open position to avoid doubling up
-        open_positions = await trader.get_open_positions()
-        already_open = any(p.get('coin') == asset for p in open_positions)
-        if already_open:
-            logger.info("Subscriber %s already has open %s position, skipping", sub.wallet_address, asset)
-            return
-
-        result = await trader.open_position(asset, side, POSITION_SIZE_USD)
-        entry_price = result.get('fill_price', 0.0)
-
-        trade = BotTrade(
-            asset=asset,
-            side=side,
-            entry_price=entry_price,
-            wallet_address=sub.wallet_address,
-            trigger_post_id=post.id,
-            opened_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None),
-            hl_order_id=result.get('order_id'),
-        )
-        db.add(trade)
-        await db.commit()
-        await db.refresh(trade)
-
-        logger.info("Opened %s %s for %s @ %.2f (trade_id=%d)", side, asset, sub.wallet_address, entry_price, trade.id)
-
-        # Schedule close after MAX_HOLD_SECONDS
-        asyncio.create_task(_close_after_hold(trade.id, sub.hl_api_key, asset, sub.wallet_address))
-
-    except Exception as e:
-        logger.error("Trade execution failed for %s: %s", sub.wallet_address, e)
-
-
-async def _close_after_hold(trade_id: int, api_key: str, asset: str, wallet: str) -> None:
-    await asyncio.sleep(MAX_HOLD_SECONDS)
-
-    from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+    # Each subscriber gets its own session — AsyncSession is NOT concurrency-safe.
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         try:
-            result = await db.execute(
-                select(BotTrade).where(BotTrade.id == trade_id, BotTrade.closed_at.is_(None))
+            trader = HyperliquidTrader(
+                api_private_key=api_key,
+                account_address=wallet,
+                leverage=sub["leverage"],
+                mainnet=settings.hl_mainnet,
             )
-            trade = result.scalar_one_or_none()
-            if trade is None:
-                return  # already closed
 
-            trader = HyperliquidTrader(api_key)
-            close_result = await trader.close_position(asset)
-            exit_price = close_result.get('fill_price', 0.0)
+            open_positions = await trader.get_open_positions()
+            if any(p.get('coin') == asset for p in open_positions):
+                logger.info("Subscriber %s already has open %s position, skipping", wallet, asset)
+                return
 
-            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
-            hold_secs = int((now - trade.opened_at.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)).total_seconds())
-            pnl = (exit_price - trade.entry_price) * (1 if trade.side == 'long' else -1)
-            # Approximate PnL: size_usd * pct_change
-            pnl_usd = POSITION_SIZE_USD * (pnl / trade.entry_price) if trade.entry_price else 0.0
-
-            trade.exit_price = exit_price
-            trade.pnl_usd = round(pnl_usd, 2)
-            trade.hold_seconds = hold_secs
-            trade.closed_at = now
+            result = await trader.open_position(asset, side, sub["position_size_usd"])
+            entry_price = result.get('fill_price', 0.0)
 
+            trade = BotTrade(
+                asset=asset,
+                side=side,
+                entry_price=entry_price,
+                wallet_address=wallet,
+                trigger_post_id=post_id,
+                opened_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None),
+                hl_order_id=result.get('order_id'),
+            )
+            db.add(trade)
             await db.commit()
-            logger.info("Closed %s %s for %s @ %.2f PnL=%.2f", trade.side, asset, wallet, exit_price, pnl_usd)
+            await db.refresh(trade)
+
+            logger.info("Opened %s %s for %s @ %.2f (trade_id=%d)",
+                        side, asset, wallet, entry_price, trade.id)
+
+            from app.services.tp_sl_monitor import register_trade
+            register_trade(
+                trade_id=trade.id,
+                wallet=wallet,
+                api_key=api_key,
+                leverage=sub["leverage"],
+                asset=asset,
+                side=side,
+                entry_price=entry_price,
+                take_profit_pct=sub["take_profit_pct"],
+                stop_loss_pct=sub["stop_loss_pct"],
+            )
+
+            asyncio.create_task(_close_after_hold(
+                trade.id, api_key, sub["leverage"], asset, wallet
+            ))
 
         except Exception as e:
-            logger.error("Failed to close trade %d: %s", trade_id, e)
+            logger.error("Trade execution failed for %s: %s", wallet, e)
+
+
+async def close_and_finalize(
+    trade_id: int,
+    api_key: str,
+    leverage: int,
+    asset: str,
+    wallet: str,
+    reason: str = "max_hold",
+) -> None:
+    """
+    Close a live HL position and write exit_price/pnl to BotTrade.
+    Race-safe: a conditional UPDATE `closed_at = now WHERE closed_at IS NULL`
+    lets exactly one caller win; losers return silently. Also wraps in a
+    per-trade asyncio.Lock to prevent us even *attempting* the HL API call twice.
+    """
+    async with _lock_for(trade_id):
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+            try:
+                now_naive = datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None)
+
+                # Atomic claim: only one caller sets closed_at.
+                claim = await db.execute(
+                    update(BotTrade)
+                    .where(BotTrade.id == trade_id)
+                    .where(BotTrade.closed_at.is_(None))
+                    .values(closed_at=now_naive)
+                )
+                await db.commit()
+                if claim.rowcount == 0:
+                    return  # someone else closed it
+
+                # Reload the row we just claimed
+                result = await db.execute(select(BotTrade).where(BotTrade.id == trade_id))
+                trade = result.scalar_one()
+
+                sub_res = await db.execute(
+                    select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet)
+                )
+                sub = sub_res.scalar_one_or_none()
+                size_usd = sub.position_size_usd if sub else 20.0
+
+                trader = HyperliquidTrader(
+                    api_private_key=api_key,
+                    account_address=wallet,
+                    leverage=leverage,
+                    mainnet=settings.hl_mainnet,
+                )
+                close_result = await trader.close_position(asset)
+                exit_price = close_result.get('fill_price', 0.0)
+
+                now_aware = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                opened_aware = trade.opened_at.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+                hold_secs = int((now_aware - opened_aware).total_seconds())
+                pct = ((exit_price - trade.entry_price) / trade.entry_price) if trade.entry_price else 0.0
+                signed_pct = pct if trade.side == 'long' else -pct
+                pnl_usd = size_usd * signed_pct * leverage
+
+                trade.exit_price = exit_price
+                trade.pnl_usd = round(pnl_usd, 2)
+                trade.hold_seconds = hold_secs
+                # closed_at already set by the atomic UPDATE
+                await db.commit()
+
+                # Clean up TP/SL + lock to avoid leaking memory
+                from app.services.tp_sl_monitor import unregister
+                unregister(trade_id)
+                _close_locks.pop(trade_id, None)
+
+                logger.info("Closed %s %s for %s @ %.2f PnL=%.2f (reason=%s)",
+                            trade.side, asset, wallet, exit_price, pnl_usd, reason)
+
+            except Exception as e:
+                logger.error("Failed to close trade %d: %s", trade_id, e)
+
+
+async def _close_after_hold(
+    trade_id: int, api_key: str, leverage: int, asset: str, wallet: str
+) -> None:
+    await asyncio.sleep(MAX_HOLD_SECONDS)
+    await close_and_finalize(trade_id, api_key, leverage, asset, wallet, reason="max_hold")
diff --git a/app/services/crypto.py b/app/services/crypto.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..fb3541e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/services/crypto.py
@@ -0,0 +1,62 @@
+"""
+Envelope encryption for HL API private keys.
+
+Plaintext keys never touch disk: stored values are Fernet-encrypted with a KEK
+loaded from env (ENCRYPTION_KEY). Rotate KEK → re-encrypt all keys offline.
+"""
+import base64
+import hashlib
+import logging
+from typing import Optional
+
+from cryptography.fernet import Fernet, InvalidToken
+
+from app.config import settings
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+def _derive_fernet_key(raw: str) -> bytes:
+    """Accept any reasonably-long secret and derive a valid 32-byte Fernet key."""
+    if not raw or len(raw) < 32:
+        raise RuntimeError(
+            "ENCRYPTION_KEY must be set to at least 32 random chars (e.g. `openssl rand -hex 32`)"
+        )
+    digest = hashlib.sha256(raw.encode("utf-8")).digest()
+    return base64.urlsafe_b64encode(digest)
+
+
+_fernet: Optional[Fernet] = None
+
+
+def _cipher() -> Fernet:
+    global _fernet
+    if _fernet is None:
+        _fernet = Fernet(_derive_fernet_key(settings.encryption_key))
+    return _fernet
+
+
+# Prefix lets us distinguish encrypted blobs from any legacy plaintext rows during migration
+ENC_PREFIX = "enc:v1:"
+
+
+def encrypt_api_key(plaintext: str) -> str:
+    token = _cipher().encrypt(plaintext.encode("utf-8")).decode("utf-8")
+    return ENC_PREFIX + token
+
+
+def decrypt_api_key(stored: str) -> str:
+    if not stored:
+        raise ValueError("Empty api key")
+    if not stored.startswith(ENC_PREFIX):
+        # Legacy plaintext row (from before encryption was added). Refuse to use in prod.
+        if settings.environment == "production":
+            raise RuntimeError(
+                "Found legacy-plaintext HL key; run migration script before production"
+            )
+        logger.warning("Reading LEGACY plaintext HL key — migrate ASAP")
+        return stored
+    try:
+        return _cipher().decrypt(stored[len(ENC_PREFIX):].encode("utf-8")).decode("utf-8")
+    except InvalidToken as exc:
+        raise RuntimeError("HL key decryption failed — wrong ENCRYPTION_KEY?") from exc
diff --git a/app/services/hyperliquid.py b/app/services/hyperliquid.py
index 1fe1148..193da05 100644
--- a/app/services/hyperliquid.py
+++ b/app/services/hyperliquid.py
@@ -1,6 +1,19 @@
+"""
+Hyperliquid BTC perpetual trading client.
+
+KEY CONCEPT — two wallets:
+  • account_address  : Your MetaMask address. Holds USDC and open positions.
+                       Used for all info/query calls.
+  • api_private_key  : API wallet private key generated at app.hyperliquid.xyz/API.
+                       Used only for signing orders. Cannot withdraw.
+
+Both are read from config (hl_account_address, hl_api_private_key).
+"""
+
 import asyncio
 import logging
 from functools import partial
+from typing import Optional
 
 from eth_account import Account
 from hyperliquid.exchange import Exchange
@@ -8,157 +21,81 @@ from hyperliquid.info import Info
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
-HL_MAINNET = "https://api.hyperliquid.xyz"
+HL_MAINNET_URL  = "https://api.hyperliquid.xyz"
+HL_TESTNET_URL  = "https://api.hyperliquid-testnet.xyz"
 
-# Coin name mapping: our asset -> Hyperliquid coin
-COIN_MAP = {
-    "BTC": "BTC",
-    "ETH": "ETH",
-}
+# Precision map — Hyperliquid's szDecimals for common coins
+# Fetched dynamically via meta() but cached here as fallback
+SZ_DECIMALS_FALLBACK = {"BTC": 5, "ETH": 4}
 
 
 class HyperliquidTrader:
-    def __init__(self, private_key: str):
-        self.account = Account.from_key(private_key)
-        self.exchange = Exchange(self.account, HL_MAINNET)
-        self.info = Info(HL_MAINNET)
-        self._loop = asyncio.get_event_loop()
+    def __init__(
+        self,
+        api_private_key: str,
+        account_address: str,
+        leverage: int = 3,
+        mainnet: bool = True,
+    ):
+        """
+        Args:
+            api_private_key:  Private key of the API wallet (from Hyperliquid dashboard).
+            account_address:  Main MetaMask wallet address (holds USDC + positions).
+            leverage:         Isolated leverage to set before each trade.
+            mainnet:          True = mainnet, False = testnet.
+        """
+        self._api_wallet = Account.from_key(api_private_key)
+        self._account_address = account_address.lower()
+        self._leverage = leverage
+        self._base_url = HL_MAINNET_URL if mainnet else HL_TESTNET_URL
 
-    # ── helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+        # Exchange signs with api_wallet but acts on behalf of account_address
+        self._exchange = Exchange(
+            self._api_wallet,
+            self._base_url,
+            account_address=self._account_address,
+        )
+        self._info = Info(self._base_url, skip_ws=True)
 
-    async def _run_sync(self, fn, *args, **kwargs):
-        """Run a blocking SDK call in the default thread pool."""
-        return await self._loop.run_in_executor(None, partial(fn, *args, **kwargs))
+    # ── internal helpers ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
-    def _wallet(self) -> str:
-        return self.account.address
+    async def _run(self, fn, *args, **kwargs):
+        """Run blocking SDK calls in a thread pool without blocking the event loop."""
+        loop = asyncio.get_running_loop()
+        return await loop.run_in_executor(None, partial(fn, *args, **kwargs))
+
+    async def _get_sz_decimals(self, coin: str) -> int:
+        try:
+            meta = await self._run(self._info.meta)
+            for u in meta.get("universe", []):
+                if u.get("name") == coin:
+                    return int(u.get("szDecimals", SZ_DECIMALS_FALLBACK.get(coin, 4)))
+        except Exception:
+            pass
+        return SZ_DECIMALS_FALLBACK.get(coin, 4)
+
+    async def _mid_price(self, coin: str) -> float:
+        mids = await self._run(self._info.all_mids)
+        price = float(mids.get(coin, 0))
+        if price <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f"Cannot get mid price for {coin}")
+        return price
 
     # ── public interface ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
     async def get_balance(self) -> float:
-        """Return USDC balance (withdrawable)."""
+        """Return withdrawable USDC balance of the main (MetaMask) account."""
         try:
-            state = await self._run_sync(
-                self.info.user_state, self._wallet()
-            )
+            state = await self._run(self._info.user_state, self._account_address)
             return float(state.get("withdrawable", 0))
         except Exception as exc:
             logger.error("get_balance error: %s", exc)
             return 0.0
 
-    async def open_position(self, asset: str, side: str, size_usd: float) -> dict:
-        """Place a market order.
-
-        Args:
-            asset: "BTC" or "ETH"
-            side: "long" (buy) or "short" (sell)
-            size_usd: notional size in USD
-
-        Returns:
-            {"order_id": str, "fill_price": float}
-        """
-        coin = COIN_MAP.get(asset.upper(), asset.upper())
-        is_buy = side.lower() == "long"
-
-        try:
-            # Get current price to compute size in coins
-            meta = await self._run_sync(self.info.meta)
-            universe = {u["name"]: u for u in meta.get("universe", [])}
-            coin_meta = universe.get(coin, {})
-            sz_decimals = int(coin_meta.get("szDecimals", 3))
-
-            # Use mid-price approximation from user state
-            all_mids = await self._run_sync(self.info.all_mids)
-            mid_price = float(all_mids.get(coin, 0))
-            if mid_price <= 0:
-                raise ValueError(f"Could not get mid price for {coin}")
-
-            size_coins = round(size_usd / mid_price, sz_decimals)
-
-            # Slippage: 1% for longs (limit above mid), 1% for shorts (limit below mid)
-            slippage = 0.01
-            if is_buy:
-                limit_px = round(mid_price * (1 + slippage), 1)
-            else:
-                limit_px = round(mid_price * (1 - slippage), 1)
-
-            order_result = await self._run_sync(
-                self.exchange.order,
-                coin,
-                is_buy,
-                size_coins,
-                limit_px,
-                {"limit": {"tif": "Ioc"}},  # IOC ~ market
-            )
-
-            status = order_result.get("response", {}).get("data", {})
-            filled = status.get("statuses", [{}])[0]
-            fill_price = float(filled.get("filled", {}).get("avgPx", mid_price) or mid_price)
-            order_id = str(filled.get("resting", {}).get("oid", ""))
-
-            logger.info(
-                "Opened %s %s position: size=%.4f coins @ %.2f",
-                side, coin, size_coins, fill_price,
-            )
-            return {"order_id": order_id, "fill_price": fill_price}
-
-        except Exception as exc:
-            logger.error("open_position error: %s", exc)
-            raise
-
-    async def close_position(self, asset: str) -> dict:
-        """Close all open positions for the given asset.
-
-        Returns:
-            {"fill_price": float}
-        """
-        coin = COIN_MAP.get(asset.upper(), asset.upper())
-        try:
-            positions = await self.get_open_positions()
-            target = next(
-                (p for p in positions if p.get("coin") == coin), None
-            )
-            if target is None:
-                logger.warning("No open position found for %s", coin)
-                return {"fill_price": 0.0}
-
-            szi = float(target.get("szi", 0))
-            is_buy = szi < 0  # closing a short means buying
-
-            all_mids = await self._run_sync(self.info.all_mids)
-            mid_price = float(all_mids.get(coin, 0))
-
-            slippage = 0.01
-            if is_buy:
-                limit_px = round(mid_price * (1 + slippage), 1)
-            else:
-                limit_px = round(mid_price * (1 - slippage), 1)
-
-            close_result = await self._run_sync(
-                self.exchange.order,
-                coin,
-                is_buy,
-                abs(szi),
-                limit_px,
-                {"limit": {"tif": "Ioc"}},
-                reduce_only=True,
-            )
-
-            status = close_result.get("response", {}).get("data", {})
-            filled = status.get("statuses", [{}])[0]
-            fill_price = float(filled.get("filled", {}).get("avgPx", mid_price) or mid_price)
-
-            logger.info("Closed %s position @ %.2f", coin, fill_price)
-            return {"fill_price": fill_price}
-
-        except Exception as exc:
-            logger.error("close_position error: %s", exc)
-            raise
-
     async def get_open_positions(self) -> list:
-        """Return list of open positions from Hyperliquid."""
+        """Return all open positions of the main account (non-zero size only)."""
         try:
-            state = await self._run_sync(self.info.user_state, self._wallet())
+            state = await self._run(self._info.user_state, self._account_address)
             positions = []
             for asset_pos in state.get("assetPositions", []):
                 pos = asset_pos.get("position", {})
@@ -166,11 +103,142 @@ class HyperliquidTrader:
                 if szi != 0:
                     positions.append({
                         "coin": pos.get("coin"),
-                        "szi": szi,
+                        "szi": szi,                                    # positive = long, negative = short
                         "entry_px": float(pos.get("entryPx", 0) or 0),
                         "unrealized_pnl": float(pos.get("unrealizedPnl", 0) or 0),
+                        "leverage": pos.get("leverage", {}),
                     })
             return positions
         except Exception as exc:
             logger.error("get_open_positions error: %s", exc)
             return []
+
+    async def set_leverage(self, coin: str) -> None:
+        """Set isolated leverage for the given coin."""
+        try:
+            await self._run(
+                self._exchange.update_leverage,
+                self._leverage,
+                coin,
+                False,   # is_cross=False → isolated margin
+            )
+            logger.info("Set leverage %dx for %s (isolated)", self._leverage, coin)
+        except Exception as exc:
+            logger.warning("set_leverage error (non-fatal): %s", exc)
+
+    async def open_position(
+        self,
+        asset: str,
+        side: str,          # "long" or "short"
+        size_usd: float,
+    ) -> dict:
+        """
+        Open a market position.
+
+        Returns:
+            {"order_id": str, "fill_price": float, "size_coins": float}
+        """
+        coin = asset.upper()
+        is_buy = side.lower() == "long"
+
+        # 1. Set leverage before opening
+        await self.set_leverage(coin)
+
+        # 2. Compute coin size from USD notional
+        mid = await self._mid_price(coin)
+        sz_dec = await self._get_sz_decimals(coin)
+        size_coins = round(size_usd / mid, sz_dec)
+        if size_coins <= 0:
+            raise ValueError(f"Computed size too small: {size_coins} {coin} from ${size_usd}")
+
+        # 3. Limit price with 1% slippage (IOC acts as market)
+        slippage = 0.01
+        # Hyperliquid px must be ≤5 sig-figs AND divisible by tick size.
+        # For BTC ~$76k tick=$1 (integer); for ETH ~$3k tick=$0.1. Use 5 sig-figs + coin-based rounding.
+        raw_px = mid * (1 + slippage) if is_buy else mid * (1 - slippage)
+        if raw_px >= 10000:
+            limit_px = float(round(raw_px))          # integer dollars for BTC
+        elif raw_px >= 1000:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 1)
+        elif raw_px >= 100:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 2)
+        else:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 3)
+
+        logger.info(
+            "Opening %s %s: %.5f coins @ limit %.2f (mid=%.2f, usd=%.2f)",
+            side, coin, size_coins, limit_px, mid, size_usd,
+        )
+
+        result = await self._run(
+            self._exchange.order,
+            coin,
+            is_buy,
+            size_coins,
+            limit_px,
+            {"limit": {"tif": "Ioc"}},   # Immediate-or-Cancel ≈ market
+        )
+
+        statuses = result.get("response", {}).get("data", {}).get("statuses", [{}])
+        filled = statuses[0] if statuses else {}
+        fill_price = float(
+            (filled.get("filled") or {}).get("avgPx", mid) or mid
+        )
+        order_id = str((filled.get("resting") or {}).get("oid", ""))
+
+        logger.info("Opened %s %s @ %.2f (order_id=%s)", side, coin, fill_price, order_id)
+        return {"order_id": order_id, "fill_price": fill_price, "size_coins": size_coins}
+
+    async def close_position(self, asset: str) -> dict:
+        """
+        Close all open positions for the given asset using a reduce-only IOC order.
+
+        Returns:
+            {"fill_price": float}
+        """
+        coin = asset.upper()
+
+        positions = await self.get_open_positions()
+        target = next((p for p in positions if p.get("coin") == coin), None)
+        if target is None:
+            logger.warning("No open %s position to close", coin)
+            return {"fill_price": 0.0}
+
+        szi = float(target["szi"])
+        is_buy = szi < 0          # closing a short → buy back
+        size = abs(szi)
+
+        mid = await self._mid_price(coin)
+        slippage = 0.01
+        # Hyperliquid px must be ≤5 sig-figs AND divisible by tick size.
+        # For BTC ~$76k tick=$1 (integer); for ETH ~$3k tick=$0.1. Use 5 sig-figs + coin-based rounding.
+        raw_px = mid * (1 + slippage) if is_buy else mid * (1 - slippage)
+        if raw_px >= 10000:
+            limit_px = float(round(raw_px))          # integer dollars for BTC
+        elif raw_px >= 1000:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 1)
+        elif raw_px >= 100:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 2)
+        else:
+            limit_px = round(raw_px, 3)
+
+        logger.info("Closing %s %s: size=%.5f @ limit %.2f", coin, "short" if is_buy else "long", size, limit_px)
+
+        result = await self._run(
+            self._exchange.order,
+            coin,
+            is_buy,
+            size,
+            limit_px,
+            {"limit": {"tif": "Ioc"}},
+            reduce_only=True,
+        )
+
+        statuses = result.get("response", {}).get("data", {}).get("statuses", [{}])
+        filled = statuses[0] if statuses else {}
+        fill_price = float(
+            (filled.get("filled") or {}).get("avgPx", mid) or mid
+        )
+
+        logger.info("Closed %s position @ %.2f", coin, fill_price)
+        return {"fill_price": fill_price}
diff --git a/app/services/recovery.py b/app/services/recovery.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..abb64d2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/services/recovery.py
@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+"""
+Startup rehydration: re-register TP/SL + max-hold for every open trade in DB.
+
+Called once from lifespan() after tables are ensured. Without this, any deploy
+or crash silently drops TP/SL protection on live positions.
+"""
+import asyncio
+import logging
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import BotTrade, Subscription
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+async def rehydrate_open_trades() -> None:
+    # Imported locally to avoid circular imports at module load
+    from app.services.bot_engine import MAX_HOLD_SECONDS, _close_after_hold, close_and_finalize
+    from app.services.crypto import decrypt_api_key
+    from app.services.tp_sl_monitor import register_trade
+
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        result = await db.execute(select(BotTrade).where(BotTrade.closed_at.is_(None)))
+        open_trades = result.scalars().all()
+
+        if not open_trades:
+            logger.info("Rehydration: no open trades.")
+            return
+
+        now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+        for t in open_trades:
+            sub_res = await db.execute(
+                select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == t.wallet_address)
+            )
+            sub = sub_res.scalar_one_or_none()
+            if sub is None or not sub.hl_api_key:
+                logger.warning(
+                    "Open trade %d has no subscription/key — marking as closed(abandoned)", t.id
+                )
+                t.closed_at = now.replace(tzinfo=None)
+                continue
+
+            try:
+                api_key = decrypt_api_key(sub.hl_api_key)
+            except Exception as exc:
+                logger.error("Cannot decrypt key for trade %d: %s", t.id, exc)
+                continue
+
+            # Re-register TP/SL watcher
+            register_trade(
+                trade_id=t.id,
+                wallet=t.wallet_address,
+                api_key=api_key,
+                leverage=sub.leverage,
+                asset=t.asset,
+                side=t.side,
+                entry_price=t.entry_price,
+                take_profit_pct=sub.take_profit_pct,
+                stop_loss_pct=sub.stop_loss_pct,
+            )
+
+            # Compute remaining hold; if already exceeded, close immediately
+            opened_aware = t.opened_at.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+            elapsed = (now - opened_aware).total_seconds()
+            remaining = MAX_HOLD_SECONDS - elapsed
+
+            if remaining <= 0:
+                logger.info("Trade %d past max-hold on startup — closing now", t.id)
+                asyncio.create_task(
+                    close_and_finalize(
+                        trade_id=t.id, api_key=api_key, leverage=sub.leverage,
+                        asset=t.asset, wallet=t.wallet_address, reason="max_hold_recovery",
+                    )
+                )
+            else:
+                async def _delayed_close(trade_id=t.id, key=api_key, lev=sub.leverage,
+                                         asset=t.asset, wallet=t.wallet_address, delay=remaining):
+                    await asyncio.sleep(delay)
+                    await close_and_finalize(
+                        trade_id=trade_id, api_key=key, leverage=lev,
+                        asset=asset, wallet=wallet, reason="max_hold",
+                    )
+                asyncio.create_task(_delayed_close())
+
+        await db.commit()
+        logger.info("Rehydrated %d open trades.", len(open_trades))
diff --git a/app/services/signed_request.py b/app/services/signed_request.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..b56cacc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/services/signed_request.py
@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+"""
+Signed-request verification: EIP-191 signature that binds {action, wallet, timestamp, body}.
+
+Message format (human-readable — what the user sees in MetaMask):
+
+    TrumpSignal · {ACTION}
+    wallet: 0x...
+    timestamp: 1713724800000
+    body: <sha256_hex_of_canonical_json, or "-" for empty>
+
+Server verifies:
+  1. recovered signer == wallet
+  2. |now - timestamp| <= MAX_SKEW_SECONDS (5 min)
+  3. sha256(canonical_json(body)) matches the hash in the message
+  4. signature not seen before (replay cache, TTL = MAX_SKEW)
+
+Same scheme is used for writes (with body) and reads (body=None → "-").
+"""
+import hashlib
+import json
+import logging
+import time
+from typing import Any, Optional
+
+from eth_account import Account
+from eth_account.messages import encode_defunct
+from fastapi import HTTPException
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+MAX_SKEW_SECONDS = 300  # 5 minutes
+
+
+def canonical_body_hash(body: Optional[Any]) -> str:
+    """Stable sha256 of a Python dict/primitive. `None` → '-'."""
+    if body is None:
+        return "-"
+    payload = json.dumps(body, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"), default=str)
+    return hashlib.sha256(payload.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+
+
+def build_message(action: str, wallet: str, timestamp_ms: int, body_hash: str) -> str:
+    return (
+        f"TrumpSignal · {action}\n"
+        f"wallet: {wallet.lower()}\n"
+        f"timestamp: {timestamp_ms}\n"
+        f"body: {body_hash}"
+    )
+
+
+# ── Replay cache ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# In-memory; fine for a single-process deploy. For multi-worker, move to Redis.
+_seen: dict[str, float] = {}  # sha256(signature) → expiry epoch seconds
+
+
+def _cache_put(sig: str, ttl: float) -> bool:
+    """Return True if sig was new, False if replay."""
+    now = time.time()
+    # lazy purge
+    if len(_seen) > 5000:
+        for k, v in list(_seen.items()):
+            if v < now:
+                _seen.pop(k, None)
+    key = hashlib.sha256(sig.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+    if key in _seen and _seen[key] > now:
+        return False
+    _seen[key] = now + ttl
+    return True
+
+
+# ── Public API ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+def verify_signed_request(
+    *,
+    action: str,
+    wallet: str,
+    timestamp_ms: int,
+    signature: str,
+    body: Optional[Any],
+    allow_replay: bool = False,
+) -> None:
+    """Raise HTTPException(401/422) if invalid. Silent on success.
+
+    allow_replay=True skips the nonce cache — use only for idempotent reads
+    (e.g. GET /user). Timestamp expiry still bounds the window to MAX_SKEW.
+    """
+    wallet = wallet.lower().strip()
+
+    # 1. Freshness
+    now_ms = int(time.time() * 1000)
+    if abs(now_ms - timestamp_ms) > MAX_SKEW_SECONDS * 1000:
+        raise HTTPException(401, "Signed request expired or clock skew too large")
+
+    # 2. Recover signer
+    body_hash = canonical_body_hash(body)
+    message = build_message(action, wallet, timestamp_ms, body_hash)
+    try:
+        recovered = Account.recover_message(encode_defunct(text=message), signature=signature).lower()
+    except Exception as exc:
+        logger.warning("Signature recovery failed (%s): %s", action, exc)
+        raise HTTPException(401, "Signature verification failed")
+    if recovered != wallet:
+        raise HTTPException(401, "Signature does not match wallet")
+
+    # 3. Replay guard (writes only)
+    if not allow_replay:
+        if not _cache_put(signature, ttl=MAX_SKEW_SECONDS):
+            raise HTTPException(401, "Signature already used (replay blocked)")
diff --git a/app/services/tp_sl_monitor.py b/app/services/tp_sl_monitor.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..37c1bb0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/app/services/tp_sl_monitor.py
@@ -0,0 +1,97 @@
+"""
+Take-profit / stop-loss monitor.
+
+Subscribes to the Binance price stream; for every open trade that has TP/SL set,
+closes the HL position as soon as the live mark price crosses the threshold.
+
+Lifecycle:
+  - bot_engine.open_position calls register_trade(...) after each new trade
+  - price callback in binance.py calls on_price_tick() once per second
+  - when TP or SL hits, we enqueue close_and_finalize(...) and de-register
+"""
+import asyncio
+import logging
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from typing import Dict, Optional
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class WatchedTrade:
+    trade_id: int
+    wallet: str
+    api_key: str
+    leverage: int
+    asset: str
+    side: str            # "long" | "short"
+    entry_price: float
+    take_profit_pct: Optional[float]
+    stop_loss_pct: Optional[float]
+
+
+# trade_id -> WatchedTrade
+_watched: Dict[int, WatchedTrade] = {}
+
+
+def register_trade(
+    trade_id: int,
+    wallet: str,
+    api_key: str,
+    leverage: int,
+    asset: str,
+    side: str,
+    entry_price: float,
+    take_profit_pct: Optional[float],
+    stop_loss_pct: Optional[float],
+) -> None:
+    if take_profit_pct is None and stop_loss_pct is None:
+        return  # nothing to watch
+    _watched[trade_id] = WatchedTrade(
+        trade_id=trade_id, wallet=wallet, api_key=api_key, leverage=leverage,
+        asset=asset, side=side, entry_price=entry_price,
+        take_profit_pct=take_profit_pct, stop_loss_pct=stop_loss_pct,
+    )
+    logger.info("TP/SL watching trade %d (%s %s @ %.2f, tp=%s, sl=%s)",
+                trade_id, side, asset, entry_price, take_profit_pct, stop_loss_pct)
+
+
+def unregister(trade_id: int) -> None:
+    _watched.pop(trade_id, None)
+
+
+def on_price_tick(asset: str, price: float) -> None:
+    """Called from binance.py on every price update. Fires close for any trade that hit TP/SL."""
+    if not _watched:
+        return
+    triggered = []
+    for tid, wt in list(_watched.items()):
+        if wt.asset != asset:
+            continue
+        pct = (price - wt.entry_price) / wt.entry_price
+        signed_pct = pct if wt.side == 'long' else -pct   # gain in position's direction
+        pct_x100 = signed_pct * 100
+
+        if wt.take_profit_pct is not None and pct_x100 >= wt.take_profit_pct:
+            triggered.append((wt, "take_profit"))
+        elif wt.stop_loss_pct is not None and pct_x100 <= -wt.stop_loss_pct:
+            triggered.append((wt, "stop_loss"))
+
+    for wt, reason in triggered:
+        unregister(wt.trade_id)
+        asyncio.create_task(_fire_close(wt, reason))
+
+
+async def _fire_close(wt: WatchedTrade, reason: str) -> None:
+    from app.services.bot_engine import close_and_finalize
+    try:
+        await close_and_finalize(
+            trade_id=wt.trade_id,
+            api_key=wt.api_key,
+            leverage=wt.leverage,
+            asset=wt.asset,
+            wallet=wt.wallet,
+            reason=reason,
+        )
+    except Exception as exc:
+        logger.error("TP/SL close failed for trade %d: %s", wt.trade_id, exc)
diff --git a/requirements.txt b/requirements.txt
index 3adac3c..74355ee 100644
--- a/requirements.txt
+++ b/requirements.txt
@@ -14,3 +14,4 @@ eth-account==0.11.0
 redis==5.0.4
 apscheduler==3.10.4
 python-dotenv==1.0.1
+cryptography>=42
diff --git a/scripts/backfill_prefilter.py b/scripts/backfill_prefilter.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7c03932
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/backfill_prefilter.py
@@ -0,0 +1,72 @@
+"""
+Zero-token backfill:
+  - Mark old posts with prefilter_reason (rt_only / url_only / empty) where applicable
+  - Fill ai_reasoning for posts that have a signal but empty reasoning
+  - Stamp analysis_version='legacy' on anything still missing it
+
+Run once after the schema migration. Safe to re-run.
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import asyncio
+import os
+import sys
+from typing import Optional
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import Post
+
+
+def classify(text: str) -> Optional[str]:
+    stripped = (text or "").strip()
+    if not stripped:
+        return "empty"
+    if stripped.startswith("RT: https://") and len(stripped) < 60:
+        return "rt_only"
+    if stripped.startswith("https://") and " " not in stripped:
+        return "url_only"
+    return None
+
+
+PREFILTER_MSG = {
+    "rt_only": "Pre-filtered: retweet with no added commentary.",
+    "url_only": "Pre-filtered: bare URL with no text content.",
+    "empty": "Pre-filtered: empty post body.",
+}
+
+
+async def main():
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        posts = (await db.execute(select(Post))).scalars().all()
+
+        pre = ai_fix = ver = 0
+        for p in posts:
+            reason = classify(p.text)
+            if reason and not p.prefilter_reason:
+                p.prefilter_reason = reason
+                if not p.ai_reasoning:
+                    p.ai_reasoning = PREFILTER_MSG[reason]
+                    ai_fix += 1
+                pre += 1
+
+            # Any remaining signal'd post with empty reasoning: fill a minimal note
+            if p.signal and not p.ai_reasoning:
+                p.ai_reasoning = "(legacy) reasoning not recorded for this post."
+                ai_fix += 1
+
+            if not p.analysis_version:
+                p.analysis_version = "legacy"
+                ver += 1
+
+        await db.commit()
+        print(f"✅ prefilter_reason set on {pre} posts")
+        print(f"✅ ai_reasoning filled on {ai_fix} posts")
+        print(f"✅ analysis_version stamped 'legacy' on {ver} posts")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    asyncio.run(main())
diff --git a/scripts/backfill_signals.py b/scripts/backfill_signals.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..9ee5d01
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/backfill_signals.py
@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+"""
+把 AI 信号写回数据库。
+跳过纯RT/URL帖子和已有signal的帖子。
+并发执行提速，自动限速避免API超限。
+用法: python scripts/backfill_signals.py [--limit 500] [--overwrite]
+"""
+import asyncio
+import argparse
+import sys
+import os
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from app.services.analysis import analyze_post
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import Post
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+CONCURRENCY = 5   # 并发数，避免触发API限速
+
+
+async def process_one(post: Post, semaphore: asyncio.Semaphore, overwrite: bool) -> str:
+    """分析单条帖子并写回DB，返回状态字符串"""
+    if not overwrite and post.signal is not None:
+        return "skip"
+
+    async with semaphore:
+        analysis = await analyze_post(post.text)
+        await asyncio.sleep(0.1)  # 轻度限速
+
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        result = await db.execute(select(Post).where(Post.id == post.id))
+        p = result.scalar_one_or_none()
+        if p:
+            p.sentiment         = analysis["sentiment"]
+            p.signal            = analysis["signal"]
+            p.ai_confidence     = analysis["confidence"]
+            p.ai_reasoning      = analysis["reasoning"]
+            p.relevant          = analysis["relevant"]
+            p.prefilter_reason  = analysis.get("prefilter_reason")
+            p.analysis_version  = analysis.get("analysis_version")
+            if analysis["relevant"] and analysis["asset"] and not p.price_impact_asset:
+                p.price_impact_asset = analysis["asset"]
+            await db.commit()
+
+    sig = analysis["signal"]
+    return f"{sig}:{analysis['confidence']}%"
+
+
+async def main(limit: int, overwrite: bool):
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        result = await db.execute(
+            select(Post).order_by(Post.published_at.desc()).limit(limit)
+        )
+        posts = result.scalars().all()
+
+    total = len(posts)
+    print(f"共 {total} 条帖子，并发={CONCURRENCY}，overwrite={overwrite}\n")
+
+    semaphore = asyncio.Semaphore(CONCURRENCY)
+    tasks = [process_one(p, semaphore, overwrite) for p in posts]
+
+    done = 0
+    buy = short = sell = hold = skipped = 0
+
+    for coro in asyncio.as_completed(tasks):
+        status = await coro
+        done += 1
+        if status == "skip":
+            skipped += 1
+        elif status.startswith("buy"):   buy += 1
+        elif status.startswith("short"): short += 1
+        elif status.startswith("sell"):  sell += 1
+        else:                            hold += 1
+
+        if done % 20 == 0 or done == total:
+            print(f"  进度 {done}/{total} | BUY={buy} SHORT={short} SELL={sell} HOLD={hold} SKIP={skipped}")
+
+    print(f"\n✅ 完成: BUY={buy} SHORT={short} SELL={sell} HOLD={hold} SKIP={skipped}")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    ap.add_argument("--limit", type=int, default=400)
+    ap.add_argument("--overwrite", action="store_true", help="重新分析已有signal的帖子")
+    args = ap.parse_args()
+    asyncio.run(main(args.limit, args.overwrite))
diff --git a/scripts/reanalyze_sample.py b/scripts/reanalyze_sample.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..c2b8c11
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/reanalyze_sample.py
@@ -0,0 +1,84 @@
+"""
+批量回跑语义分析 — 验证新prompt效果
+用法: python scripts/reanalyze_sample.py
+"""
+import asyncio
+import sys
+import os
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from app.services.analysis import analyze_post
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import Post
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+
+async def main():
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        result = await db.execute(
+            select(Post)
+            .order_by(Post.published_at.desc())
+            .limit(60)
+        )
+        posts = result.scalars().all()
+
+    print(f"分析 {len(posts)} 条帖子 (model: claude-sonnet-4-6)\n")
+
+    signals = {"buy": 0, "sell": 0, "short": 0, "hold": 0}
+    relevant_count = 0
+
+    correct_m5, checked_m5 = 0, 0
+    correct_m15, checked_m15 = 0, 0
+    correct_m1h, checked_m1h = 0, 0
+
+    for i, post in enumerate(posts):
+        analysis = await analyze_post(post.text)
+        signals[analysis["signal"]] += 1
+        if analysis["relevant"]:
+            relevant_count += 1
+
+        if analysis["relevant"]:
+            sig = analysis["signal"].upper()
+            conf = analysis["confidence"]
+
+            actual_m5  = post.price_impact_m5
+            actual_m15 = post.price_impact_m15
+            actual_m1h = post.price_impact_m1h
+
+            def dir_ok(actual, signal):
+                if actual is None: return None
+                if signal == "buy":   return actual > 0
+                if signal == "short": return actual < 0
+                return None
+
+            m5_ok  = dir_ok(actual_m5,  analysis["signal"])
+            m15_ok = dir_ok(actual_m15, analysis["signal"])
+            m1h_ok = dir_ok(actual_m1h, analysis["signal"])
+
+            if m5_ok  is not None: checked_m5  += 1; correct_m5  += int(m5_ok)
+            if m15_ok is not None: checked_m15 += 1; correct_m15 += int(m15_ok)
+            if m1h_ok is not None: checked_m1h += 1; correct_m1h += int(m1h_ok)
+
+            # accuracy marks
+            marks = ""
+            if m5_ok  is not None: marks += f" 5m:{'✅' if m5_ok  else '❌'}"
+            if m15_ok is not None: marks += f" 15m:{'✅' if m15_ok else '❌'}"
+            if m1h_ok is not None: marks += f" 1h:{'✅' if m1h_ok else '❌'}"
+
+            print(f"[{i+1:03d}] {post.published_at.strftime('%m-%d %H:%M')} | {sig:5s} {conf:3d}% |{marks}")
+            print(f"      {post.text[:110]}")
+            print(f"      → {analysis['reasoning'][:200]}")
+            print()
+
+        await asyncio.sleep(0.2)
+
+    print("=" * 70)
+    print(f"总计: {len(posts)} 帖 | Relevant: {relevant_count} ({relevant_count/len(posts)*100:.0f}%)")
+    print(f"信号: BUY={signals['buy']} SHORT={signals['short']} SELL={signals['sell']} HOLD={signals['hold']}")
+    print()
+    if checked_m5:  print(f"准确率  5m: {correct_m5}/{checked_m5}  = {correct_m5/checked_m5*100:.0f}%")
+    if checked_m15: print(f"准确率 15m: {correct_m15}/{checked_m15} = {correct_m15/checked_m15*100:.0f}%")
+    if checked_m1h: print(f"准确率  1h: {correct_m1h}/{checked_m1h} = {correct_m1h/checked_m1h*100:.0f}%")
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    asyncio.run(main())
diff --git a/scripts/test_hyperliquid.py b/scripts/test_hyperliquid.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ee68d81
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/test_hyperliquid.py
@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+"""
+Hyperliquid 接入测试脚本
+
+用法:
+  source venv/bin/activate
+  HL_API_PRIVATE_KEY="0x你的API钱包私钥" \
+  HL_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS="0x你的MetaMask地址" \
+  python scripts/test_hyperliquid.py
+
+会做以下验证（只读，不下单）:
+  1. 连通性检查
+  2. 账户 USDC 余额
+  3. BTC-PERP 当前价格
+  4. 当前持仓
+  5. 模拟开仓参数（不实际下单）
+
+加 --trade 参数才会真正下一个 0.001 BTC 的小仓位并立即平掉（mainnet 慎用）
+"""
+
+import asyncio
+import argparse
+import os
+import sys
+
+sys.path.insert(0, os.path.dirname(os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))))
+
+from app.services.hyperliquid import HyperliquidTrader
+
+
+async def main(do_trade: bool):
+    api_key = os.getenv("HL_API_PRIVATE_KEY") or os.getenv("HL_API_KEY", "")
+    account = os.getenv("HL_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS", "")
+
+    if not api_key:
+        print("❌ 缺少 HL_API_PRIVATE_KEY 环境变量")
+        print("   export HL_API_PRIVATE_KEY='0x你的API钱包私钥'")
+        sys.exit(1)
+    if not account:
+        print("❌ 缺少 HL_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS 环境变量")
+        print("   export HL_ACCOUNT_ADDRESS='0x你的MetaMask地址'")
+        sys.exit(1)
+
+    mainnet = os.getenv("HL_MAINNET", "true").lower() != "false"
+    net_label = "MAINNET" if mainnet else "TESTNET"
+    print(f"\n=== Hyperliquid 接入测试 ({net_label}) ===\n")
+
+    trader = HyperliquidTrader(
+        api_private_key=api_key,
+        account_address=account,
+        leverage=3,
+        mainnet=mainnet,
+    )
+
+    # 1. USDC 余额
+    print("① 查询 USDC 余额...")
+    balance = await trader.get_balance()
+    print(f"   可提取余额: ${balance:.2f} USDC")
+    if balance < 10:
+        print("   ⚠️  余额不足 $10，交易可能失败")
+    else:
+        print("   ✅ 余额充足")
+
+    # 2. BTC mid price
+    print("\n② 查询 BTC-PERP 价格...")
+    try:
+        from hyperliquid.info import Info
+        base_url = "https://api.hyperliquid.xyz" if mainnet else "https://api.hyperliquid-testnet.xyz"
+        info = Info(base_url, skip_ws=True)
+        mids = info.all_mids()
+        btc_price = float(mids.get("BTC", 0))
+        print(f"   BTC mid price: ${btc_price:,.2f}")
+        print("   ✅ 价格获取正常")
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"   ❌ 价格获取失败: {e}")
+
+    # 3. 当前持仓
+    print("\n③ 查询当前持仓...")
+    positions = await trader.get_open_positions()
+    if positions:
+        for p in positions:
+            side = "多" if p["szi"] > 0 else "空"
+            print(f"   {p['coin']} {side}仓: {abs(p['szi'])} 张 @ 均价 ${p['entry_px']:,.2f}  未实现盈亏: ${p['unrealized_pnl']:.2f}")
+        print(f"   共 {len(positions)} 个持仓")
+    else:
+        print("   无持仓 ✅")
+
+    # 4. 模拟开仓参数
+    print("\n④ 模拟开仓参数（不实际下单）...")
+    sz_dec = await trader._get_sz_decimals("BTC")
+    mid = await trader._mid_price("BTC")
+    size_usd = 100
+    size_coins = round(size_usd / mid, sz_dec)
+    limit_buy = round(mid * 1.01, 1)
+    print(f"   开多 $100 notional:")
+    print(f"   → 数量: {size_coins} BTC")
+    print(f"   → 限价(1%滑点): ${limit_buy:,.1f}")
+    print(f"   → 杠杆: 3x 隔离保证金")
+    print(f"   → 所需保证金: ${size_usd / 3:.2f} USDC")
+
+    # 5. 真实测试下单（需要 --trade 参数）
+    if do_trade:
+        print(f"\n⑤ 真实下单测试 (0.001 BTC long → 立即平仓)...")
+        if not mainnet:
+            print("   使用 testnet，无需担心资金损失")
+        else:
+            print("   ⚠️  MAINNET 真实资金！继续中...")
+
+        try:
+            result = await trader.open_position("BTC", "long", size_usd=50)
+            print(f"   ✅ 开仓成功: fill_price=${result['fill_price']:,.2f}, size={result['size_coins']} BTC")
+
+            await asyncio.sleep(2)
+
+            close = await trader.close_position("BTC")
+            print(f"   ✅ 平仓成功: fill_price=${close['fill_price']:,.2f}")
+        except Exception as e:
+            print(f"   ❌ 下单失败: {e}")
+    else:
+        print("\n提示: 加 --trade 参数进行真实下单+平仓测试")
+
+    print("\n=== 测试完成 ===")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
+    parser.add_argument("--trade", action="store_true", help="执行真实下单+平仓测试")
+    args = parser.parse_args()
+    asyncio.run(main(args.trade))
diff --git a/simulate_trades.py b/simulate_trades.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..cf23ce0
--- /dev/null
+++ b/simulate_trades.py
@@ -0,0 +1,130 @@
+"""
+Simulate ~30 days of bot trading history for a given wallet, using real historical
+posts + the measured price_impact_{m5,m15,m1h} fields. Creates BotTrade rows as if
+the bot had been running with default settings (size=$20, lev=3x, tp=2%, sl=1.5%).
+
+Usage:
+    python simulate_trades.py <wallet_address>
+
+Safe to re-run: skips posts already linked to a trade for the given wallet.
+"""
+import asyncio
+import sys
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+from typing import Optional, Tuple
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import BotTrade, Post
+
+
+SIZE_USD = 20.0
+LEVERAGE = 3
+TP_PCT = 2.0     # close at +2% price move in position direction
+SL_PCT = 1.5     # close at -1.5%
+MIN_CONFIDENCE = 80
+DAYS_BACK = 30
+
+
+def simulate_exit(side: str, m5: Optional[float], m15: Optional[float], m1h: Optional[float]) -> Tuple[float, int, str]:
+    """
+    Walk the three sampled points; exit at the first TP/SL crossing, else at m1h close.
+    Returns (signed_pct, hold_seconds, reason).
+    signed_pct = price move in position's favour (positive means profit, in raw %).
+    """
+    samples = [(300, m5), (900, m15), (3600, m1h)]
+    for secs, pct in samples:
+        if pct is None:
+            continue
+        signed = pct if side == 'long' else -pct
+        if signed >= TP_PCT:
+            return TP_PCT, secs, 'take_profit'
+        if signed <= -SL_PCT:
+            return -SL_PCT, secs, 'stop_loss'
+    # No TP/SL hit — exit at whichever latest sample we have
+    final = m1h if m1h is not None else (m15 if m15 is not None else (m5 or 0.0))
+    signed = final if side == 'long' else -final
+    hold = 3600 if m1h is not None else (900 if m15 is not None else 300)
+    return signed, hold, 'max_hold'
+
+
+async def main(wallet: str) -> None:
+    wallet = wallet.lower()
+    cutoff = datetime.now(timezone.utc).replace(tzinfo=None) - timedelta(days=DAYS_BACK)
+
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        # Get candidate posts
+        result = await db.execute(
+            select(Post)
+            .where(Post.published_at >= cutoff)
+            .where(Post.relevant == True)  # noqa: E712
+            .where(Post.ai_confidence >= MIN_CONFIDENCE)
+            .where(Post.signal.in_(('buy', 'short')))
+            .where(Post.price_at_post.is_not(None))
+            .order_by(Post.published_at.asc())
+        )
+        posts = result.scalars().all()
+
+        # Skip posts already simulated for this wallet
+        existing = await db.execute(
+            select(BotTrade.trigger_post_id).where(BotTrade.wallet_address == wallet)
+        )
+        seen = {pid for (pid,) in existing.all() if pid is not None}
+
+        created = 0
+        total_pnl = 0.0
+        wins = 0
+
+        for p in posts:
+            if p.id in seen:
+                continue
+            asset = p.price_impact_asset or 'BTC'
+            side = 'long' if p.signal == 'buy' else 'short'
+            entry = p.price_at_post
+            if not entry:
+                continue
+
+            signed_pct, hold_secs, reason = simulate_exit(
+                side, p.price_impact_m5, p.price_impact_m15, p.price_impact_m1h
+            )
+            # exit_price reconstructed from signed_pct relative to side direction
+            raw_pct = signed_pct if side == 'long' else -signed_pct
+            exit_price = entry * (1 + raw_pct / 100.0)
+            pnl_usd = round(SIZE_USD * (signed_pct / 100.0) * LEVERAGE, 2)
+
+            opened = p.published_at
+            closed = opened + timedelta(seconds=hold_secs)
+
+            trade = BotTrade(
+                asset=asset,
+                side=side,
+                entry_price=round(entry, 2),
+                exit_price=round(exit_price, 2),
+                pnl_usd=pnl_usd,
+                hold_seconds=hold_secs,
+                trigger_post_id=p.id,
+                wallet_address=wallet,
+                opened_at=opened,
+                closed_at=closed,
+                hl_order_id=f'sim-{p.id}',
+            )
+            db.add(trade)
+            created += 1
+            total_pnl += pnl_usd
+            if pnl_usd > 0:
+                wins += 1
+
+        await db.commit()
+
+        wr = (wins / created * 100) if created else 0
+        print(f"✓ Simulated {created} trades for {wallet}")
+        print(f"  Total PnL: ${total_pnl:+.2f}")
+        print(f"  Win rate:  {wr:.1f}% ({wins}/{created})")
+
+
+if __name__ == '__main__':
+    if len(sys.argv) != 2:
+        print("Usage: python simulate_trades.py <wallet_address>")
+        sys.exit(1)
+    asyncio.run(main(sys.argv[1]))
diff --git a/test_hl_trade.py b/test_hl_trade.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..bb3ea3f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test_hl_trade.py
@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+"""
+End-to-end test: open $11 BTC long, then immediately close it.
+Pulls the stored API key from the DB for the given wallet.
+
+Usage:  cd backend && python test_hl_trade.py 0xYOURWALLET
+"""
+import asyncio
+import sys
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from app.database import AsyncSessionLocal
+from app.models import Subscription
+from app.services.hyperliquid import HyperliquidTrader
+from app.config import settings
+
+
+async def main(wallet: str):
+    wallet = wallet.lower()
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        result = await db.execute(select(Subscription).where(Subscription.wallet_address == wallet))
+        sub = result.scalar_one_or_none()
+        if sub is None or not sub.hl_api_key:
+            print(f"❌ No API key stored for {wallet}")
+            return
+        api_key = sub.hl_api_key
+        print(f"✓ Loaded API key for {wallet} (ends …{api_key[-6:]})")
+
+    trader = HyperliquidTrader(
+        api_private_key=api_key,
+        account_address=wallet,
+        leverage=settings.hl_leverage,
+        mainnet=settings.hl_mainnet,
+    )
+
+    bal = await trader.get_balance()
+    print(f"✓ Withdrawable (perps): ${bal:.2f}  (unified account may show 0 here, ignoring)")
+
+    print("\n─── OPENING $11 BTC LONG ───")
+    try:
+        open_result = await trader.open_position("BTC", "long", 11.0)
+        print(f"✓ Open fill: {open_result}")
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"❌ Open failed: {e}")
+        return
+
+    await asyncio.sleep(2)
+    positions = await trader.get_open_positions()
+    print(f"✓ Open positions now: {positions}")
+
+    print("\n─── CLOSING BTC POSITION ───")
+    try:
+        close_result = await trader.close_position("BTC")
+        print(f"✓ Close fill: {close_result}")
+    except Exception as e:
+        print(f"❌ Close failed: {e}")
+        return
+
+    await asyncio.sleep(2)
+    positions = await trader.get_open_positions()
+    print(f"✓ Open positions after close: {positions}")
+
+    bal2 = await trader.get_balance()
+    print(f"\n✓ Balance before: ${bal:.2f}  →  after: ${bal2:.2f}  (diff: ${bal2-bal:+.4f})")
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    if len(sys.argv) < 2:
+        print("Usage: python test_hl_trade.py 0xYOURWALLET")
+        sys.exit(1)
+    asyncio.run(main(sys.argv[1]))